A Road Map to Smart Transportation

ISRAELI POLICY PLANNERS PEER INTO A DRIVERLESS FUTURE

Smart transportation – electric, autonomous, interconnected and shared – will bring about a revolution in urban living in the next decade. How should a nation plan for its introduction and what changes will it bring to off-road urban living and the economy?

A 128-page report from Israel’s National Economic Council released in July and supplied to Karma Impact maps out the policy decisions required to manage a successful transformation – and sets out the potential pitfalls alongside the benefits.

Some of the world’s largest automotive companies are testing their vehicles on roads in Israel, which has emerged as a surprise center of smart mobility technology.

Intel’s Israel-based Mobileye unit is testing self-driving Volkswagen electric vehicles ahead of a full commercialization planned for 2022. General Motors is testing Cadillac and Chevrolet self-driving models. Russia’s Yandex has opened a Tel Aviv R&D center, its first outside Russia, and is testing self-driving taxis in Tel Aviv. Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi has opened a Tel Aviv innovation lab focused on sensors for 40 autonomous vehicles, including 12 all-electric models, it plans to develop by 2022. BMW will open a new Israeli R&D center later in 2019, joining GM, Samsung, Harman International, Cortica, Foretellix and Waycare, who are all advertising jobs for Israeli data science researchers to work on autonomous vehicle technology. 

Honda, Volvo, Hertz, and NEC are among the sponsors of Drive, a Tel Aviv innovation center and co-working space that nurtures start-ups developing next-generation smart mobility technology, from smaller, lighter electric batteries for vehicles, to sensors that can detect pedestrians and save lives.

Meanwhile, four separate app-driven electric scooter companies - Bird, Leo, Lime and Wind - are vying for business on the crowded streets and bike lanes of Tel Aviv.

Maniv Mobility, a Tel Aviv-based venture firm, has just raised a $100 million fund to invest in early stage mobility start-ups backed by a blue-riband roll-call of automotive leaders including Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi, BMW i Ventures, Deutsche Bahn Digital Ventures, Hyundai, Lear Corp., LG Electronics and Shell. The aim: to help create a new era of safer, greener, more accessible, cheaper and ultimately autonomous mobility.

By 2030, most vehicles on Israel’s roads will be “materially different” from today, says Israel's National Economic Council. Although no-one knows for sure what these technologies will look like, when they will mature and how they will be implemented, experts around the world agree they will “change the mobility of people and goods in space.”

Electric-powered autonomous vehicles, shared by many people, along with bikes and scooters, will transform the urban landscape, with a “dramatic impact on various areas of the economy, such as planning and construction, the energy market, state revenues, cost of living, the labor market, safety, public health and more.”

However, if current trends continue, “increasing the level of motorization and the number of passengers, Israel may find itself in a future where new transport technologies do more harm than good,” the report warns.

“An overall smart transport policy is needed, which will actively aim for the first scenario,” the report concludes.

The Upside

Road Congestion

• The annual cost to Israel’s economy from transportation congestion is about $11 billion a year, set to double by 2040. Commuting by autonomous services will reduce the number of vehicles, easing congestion.

Releasing Land From Parking

• Less cars in the city will release land currently used for parking, which can be used for urban renewal and converted to sidewalks, bike paths and open spaces.

Energy Transformation

• As fewer cars are used and those remaining switch to electric power, decline in fuel demand means rethinking the nation’s oil refining, storage and distribution.

Public Health

• Pollution from transportation in Israel causes more than 1,000 deaths a year, costing about $4 billion. Air pollution, noise and fuel leaks into groundwater will be sharply reduced. More than 300 people die each year in Israeli road accidents, costing more than $4 billion. The use of autonomous cars should reduce this damage.

Productivity and Employment

• Using autonomous vehicles will allow workers to utilize commuting time to increase productivity or rest, improve the mobility of non-productive populations, and increase employment opportunities in companies developing smart transportation technology.

Cost of Living

• As costs decline, adopting smart transportation will reduce family expenditure. The use of shared vehicles will eliminate the major costs of car purchase, maintenance, fuel and parking.

The Downside

Planning and Construction

• The benefits described above will not occur without the adoption of shared vehicles, replacing individual ownership. Autonomous vehicles risk increased commuting distances and urban sprawl.

Public Health

• Massive use of door-to-door mobility services at the expense of walking and cycling could reduce exercise and damage health.

Public Revenues

• Israel’s state revenue from the automobile industry in 2016 was $12 billion, of which two-thirds came from excise on fuel and purchase tax on vehicles. These revenues would fall with mass adoption of electric vehicles and shared mobility services. Municipal income from parking will also fall. Mobility from door to door at the expense of public transport, walking and cycling could harm local commerce.

Employment

• Driving professions will be at risk if drivers are replaced by autonomous vehicles.

Recommended policy measures:

• Promoting mass and shared mobility services with early transformation of urban public transportation to electric, smart technology;
• Altering transportation taxation policy and using smart travel pricing to regulate demand;
• Leveraging mobility changes to improve urban space;
• Close cooperation between government, municipal and commercial bodies to ensure broad preparation and implementation.

MATTHEW KALMAN is a Middle East Correspondent based in Jerusalem, reporting on technology, business and innovation