The road to General Election 2024: Challenges on all sides as Parliament returns

With the return this week of MPs following summer recess, the countdown to the next General Election is in full swing as Westminster’s elite return to work ahead of a packed political autumn.

The next three months will see party conference season, the King’s Speech and the Autumn Statement tentpole political events which the Government will use as opportunities to demonstrate what Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government can do in order to reverse their fortunes in the polls. On the other hand, Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party will be looking to consolidate their lead through putting meat on the bones of their legislative programme as a potential government in waiting.

Kreab London is here to provide a breakdown of the current political climate and offer insight into the role public affairs campaigns can play for businesses during this time.? ?

The challenge facing Rishi Sunak: go on the offensive ?

The Prime Minister knows his party needs a change.

Throughout his first year in office Sunak focused on stabilising both markets and his party following the calamitous Liz Truss premiership and the fall of Boris Johnson. Sunak faces the reality of needing to overturn a seismic gap in the polls, and with little over a year left until the election, he will need to go on the offensive if the Conservatives are to stand any chance of delivering an unlikely fifth term.

Recently announced appointments to the political operation in No. 10 indicate the Prime Minister’s desire to embrace this required change of focus and become more ‘election-ready’. However, before he can focus fully on the campaign, a number of issues remain for Sunak to contend with.

Another by-election looms following the eventual resignation of former Johnson-acolyte Nadine Dorries, which presents yet another challenge to the Prime Minister’s authority. Perform poorly there, and the whispers which started with two defeats before the summer break will only get louder. Such is the current malaise with the current government, the Conservatives will be relying on Labour and the Liberal Democrats splitting the vote to have any chance of winning, what on paper, is still a safe seat.

The Cabinet reshuffle has been pushed back reportedly to October after the party conference season. This would appear an unnecessary delay, given the Prime Minister will need his top team in place sooner rather than later as we head closer to the election. However, given the fiasco of last year’s conference, and the litany of briefs and counter briefs against the Truss hierarchy, it’s easy to see why Sunak wants to avoid ruffling any unnecessary feathers.?

The mini reshuffle last week saw Grant Shapps promoted to Defence Secretary and Claire Coutinho promoted to Energy Secretary – both of whom are particularly close with the Prime Minister yet are inexperienced in their brief (although Shapps is a long-term stalwart of successive Tory governments). This indicates that any further appointments in the autumn will see the Prime Minister reward loyalty to those close to his inner circle, a potentially risky move whilst still trying to keep his dysfunctional party on side.

The King’s Speech and Autumn Statement are where the Government will really look to focus on dividing lines with Labour ahead of the election, on areas such as crime, energy security, health and business investment. The Government will be hoping that with a dip in inflation, Sunak will be better able to articulate this message to the electorate and start reversing the national trend in the polls.

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What can go wrong? - Labour’s dilemma ?

The problems for Labour, sitting on a 20-point lead in the polls, are not as readily apparent.

However, critics have argued that Labour have not earned their strong footing with little enthusiasm for its key personnel, and have benefited from the public’s fatigue of a divisive Conservative government, rather than any significant momentum generated by their own policy positions. The Labour leadership will be hoping that this week’s imminent reshuffle – the first in two years – will add some extra impetus and sparkle in what is likely to be the last major shake up of Starmer’s top team before the election.

The biggest risk they face appears to be going too soon with their electoral platform, whilst the Conservatives still have an Autumn Statement and budget in which to set the terms of debate for the election. Memories are short and as Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have demonstrated in the past, ill-written and tone-deaf manifestos can torpedo an election campaign before polling day.

Starmer will be hoping that strong showings in the two by-elections in England and Scotland will provide that sense of momentum he needs. Win those, and the path to an outright majority at the next election — which relies heavily on Scotland — looks firmer. Perform badly, and the critics who lambasted the party’s effort in Uxbridge will have yet more evidence of a leadership being too ultra-cautious and scared of its own shadow.

Despite all of this, without a dramatic shift in public opinion, and even if the economy recover, it is hard to see how Starmer can squander his significant lead.

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How we can help ?

With the prospect of a busy political calendar on the horizon, the role that public affairs can deliver for business over the course of the next twelve months becomes increasingly more important.? There is no question that business operates on political territory, so effective public affairs work is now business-critical.

Organisations must prioritise their political engagement in order to mitigate risk and ensure they are best placed to take advantage of changes in political trends, including changes in government. At Kreab London, we can help your organisation to engage with policymakers throughout this critical time in the run up to the General Election where political parties will begin finalising their policies, as well as looking to cultivate their own relationship with business.

Our team provides a first-class experience of working with government, parliament and the Civil Service, allowing us to provide an in-depth insight and contacts across the political spectrum, and extensive policy knowledge and consulting excellence.

Please do get in touch if you would like to discuss how we can help.

Matthew Sutton, Head of UK Public Affairs

[email protected]