The road to COP 27

In just a few weeks, COP 27 will open in Sharm-El-Sheikh, Egypt, returning the summit to Africa for the first time since 2016.

?Sir Jonathan Taylor, Senior Advisor at Afore Consulting?sets the scene for this year’s Conference of the Parties, providing an overview of what has been achieved so far and what we can expect from it.

Introduction

?At the end of the last COP in Glasgow, the COP President Alok Sharma said that the “1.5 by 2050” target was still in reach. But the Glasgow Climate Pact, which rounded off the meeting, did not go far enough to secure this goal. While countries agreed to “phase down” coal and to provide increased financial help to developing countries, “Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDCs) – individual countries’ plans – only amounted to holding global heating to around 2.4 per cent by 2050.?So countries committed to review their plans, and revisit them at Sharm.

Meanwhile, despite some positive moves – notably the US’s so-called Inflation Reduction Act – international geopolitics has moved in the wrong direction, and other climate-related issues of concern, for example, compensation for loss or damage, have moved up the agenda.?This presents a challenging prospect for the incoming Egyptian Presidency.

What has been achieved since Glasgow?

There has been some progress on NDCs. Around 20 countries, including the UK, Egypt and India have submitted revised NDCs during the course of the year. Of these, Australia’s represents a substantial improvement on the previous proposal, reflecting the greatly enhanced ambition of the new government. But most countries have failed to live up to their promises in this regard. On finance, the long-established commitment to provide $100 billion annually to the Global South, including a doubling of finance for adaptation, still has far to go.?The Glasgow commitment to put in place a Just Energy Transition Partnership for South Africa has made some progress in terms of institutional arrangements, and other similar partnerships are in the pipeline. But delivery is still some way off.

?So there is much to do. One issue surrounds the much-publicised commitments of the private sector Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ)?to orient the resources under its control (around $130 trillion) to support action against climate change. Much progress has been made in creating structures to support this work. Further consensus will be required over the consistency of this ambition with fiduciaries’ responsibilities and with wider anti-trust obligations. Another challenge will be the costs of data collection. Asset managers have also come under political fire in the United States, with Republican state treasurers withdrawing fund management mandates, while Democrat politicians push in the other direction. The period ahead will be critical in maintaining confidence in this initiative.?Look out for a big event we are launching on this very issue on 8 December.

The North-South perspective

Another set of issues surrounds the (global) North-South relationship.?The Egyptian Presidency naturally has a particular focus on these. It has appointed Ministers Rojas (Chile) and Morgan (Germany) to take forward inter-ministerial discussions on the issue of compensation to the South for loss /damage caused by climate change. This has been a priority issue for some time in countries most affected by climate change, while the focus in Northern countries has been elsewhere. North-South relations have been a recurring theme in Southern inter-ministerial events during the course of the year, such as the July Pacific Islands Forum, and the Cairo Conference of African Nations in September. The disproportionate impact of climate change on poorer countries, and the historical responsibility of the North for the bulk of emissions, has been repeatedly underlined. So strong calls for compensation and for institutional reform can be expected. There may well be some focus on the Washington institutions, here, in the light both of World Bank President Malpass’s apparently muddled position on climate science, and?the widely supported call from Barbados PM Mottley for their reform in order to provide more targeted support to developing countries, particularly for climate change.

?Geopolitics adds to the difficulties.?One much-applauded outcome of Glasgow was a formal agreement between the United States and China to work together on climate issues, but this has since been suspended. Russia can be expected to play an unhelpful role, seeking for example to link action on climate with reducing sanctions.

What to expect

?Nonetheless, there remains a sense of urgency, reinforced by the remorseless advance of scientific indicators – leading climate scientists published in September new work suggesting that there were serious risks of triggering four climate “tipping points” (beyond which changes become self-perpetuating) even with current degrees of warming – and by direct experience.?COP 27 is unlikely to bring a set of conclusions along the lines of Glasgow, still less a single overarching agreement as at COP 15 in Paris.?But it will lead to a renewed focus on key points and, it is to be hoped, impel further progress.