ROAD TO CLIMATE CHANGE: HOW FAR, HOW LONG

From 30th November to 12th December, the world's top leadership, social and business organizations and other concerned people will gather in Dubai for COP-28 (Conference of the Parties) and will once again discuss the harm that climate change is causing to humanity and all living beings. After intense deliberations and negotiations, it will come out with resolutions for the way forward. This time around 25,000 people are expected to participate in this annual conference, which started from Berlin, Germany in 1995. This time there is likely to be more participation than previous conferences. Among the declared objectives of this year, the availability and accessibility of resources to prevent the outbreak of climate change has been considered the center of discussions. Besides, it is also proposed to be discussed on climate transition and adaptation. During the conference, there will also be a discussion on energy transition and reducing it by all means by 2030, and this time, instead of limiting climate change to just the subject of nations and associated institutions, the mindset of keeping humans, living creatures and livelihoods at its center will also be discussed. So that there can be a an inclusive discussion on this. How meaningful these discussions will be and how much they will reach the ground remains in the womb of time, but the impact of these annual events and the outcome of such deep thinking in the last 27 years is not reflected anywhere.

There is a lot of excitement about the annual conference(s) of parties organized under the aegis of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and expectations are set at for some decisive steps and resolutions at its conclusion. Resolutions were passed in the past too, but they either did not grounded or quickly collapsed. It is not that the Maha Kumbh will be held? for the first time in Dubai only, before this too, Kyoto of Japan (COP-3), Montreal of Canada (COP-11), Copenhagen of Denmark (COP-15), Cancún of Mexico (COP-16) , Durban in South Africa (COP-17), Paris in France (COP-21) and Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt (COP-27) witnessed large gathering of interested parties and stakeholders. It was believed that from here some decisive steps would be taken towards climate change. Many theoretical agreements were reached and new concepts were also propounded, but beyond expressing concern about climate change, progress remained weak. Climate Change is increasing the threat to human civilization at its own pace and resulting in increase in the number and frequency of storms, air pollution, increase in temperature, frequency of drought, increasing desert, rising oceans, food shortage, increase in poverty and diseases Etc. without any signs of halt or stopping. Even today, amidst the ritual of setting new targets and repeating old resolutions, the industrialized and developed countries are still bringing the environment to ruin with autocracy.

During this entire period of 28 years, efforts to persuade many nations including America were made to reach at some conclusion, who have posed serious obstacles in reaching out at conclusive and concrete steps. With George W. Bush becoming President in 2001, America had created a big obstacle by deciding to remain in the role of observer instead of Party to the discussions, which was later corrected by Barack Obama in 2009 when he decided to take up climate change as a mission instead. Although the New Delhi Action Plan was approved at the COP-8 held in New Delhi in 2002, Russia did not ratify it and delayed the adoption of resolution.

The first decisive step towards Climate Change took place during COP-3 held in Kyoto, when the 'Kyoto Protocol' was agreed upon. However, despite being signed assent by President Bill Clinton, the US Congress rejected it and the Bush administration later withdrew from it altogether in 2001. This was the first definitive step towards carbon trading, clean development mechanisms and joint implementation to commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, in this too, through a separate resolution, emissions from military activities and bunker fuel were kept out of the total national emissions.

If the emissions from military activities are calculated, they will probably be established as a very important factor in climate change. The Russia-Ukraine war that has been going on for the last one year, the recent Israel-Hamas war or the military activities in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria etc. in the past have polluted the atmosphere by emitting tons of Green House Gases. 25 years ago, a time frame of 11-15 years was set in Kyoto to reduce carbon emissions by 6 to 8 percent from 1990 levels, but the expected success has still not been achieved. In the same sequence, after 13 years, during COP-16 (2010) in Cancún, the target of limiting global warming to 2°C was set, which is still a distant dream.

The classification of nations responsible for climate change has also been done under the United Nations framework, which has 43 parties including the European Union. These parties are industrially developed and economies in transition. It also includes 14 nations which were formerly part of the Soviet Union or Eastern Europe. Under this framework, 24 such nations have also been listed, which are determined to provide assistance to developing nations in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to the adverse effects of climate change. These include OECD countries except Turkey.

In the past 28 years of discussions, negotiations, agreements there has been a maze of words, creation of definitions, formation of committees, abstract resolutions of setting up a fund for climate change under different names and political proposals other than concrete scientific action, creation of alternatives and conservation of biological civilization. Progress can only be considered just an eye wash.

The establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund was much publicized at the conclusion of last conference. It was first conceptualized 10 years ago in the 'Doha Climate Gateway' proposal at COP-18 in 2012. It took ten years for the concept to reach resolution. Who knows how much time it will take to get concrete shape. This is not the first time that a consensus has been reached on setting up a fund related to climate change. Even before this, especially in the nine COP conferences (3, 6, 9, 10, 15, 16, 17, 18, 21), proposals were passed after deep discussions, agreement and disagreements, regarding providing financial and technical resources to the developing and vulnerable countries, without much outcome. Resultantly, providing financial resources/assistance remains at the center of discussion during every conference including forthcoming COP28. Nations, which are especially responsible for climate change, keep postponing it under some pretext and illogical reasons and without accountability, the proposals die an untimely death. This raises question marks on the appropriateness and seriousness of these conferences. It is something like "it is necessary to just get worried, even if that thinking does not lead to any conclusion". The financial and other resources, fossil fuel consumption etc. involved in organizing, participating and preparing these conferences need serious consideration. During the COP-12 held in Nairobi in 2006, a BBC correspondent even termed the participants of the conference as 'climate tourists'. Even then he had described the gap between political dialogue and scientific concepts as the biggest obstacle to the meaningfulness of the conference.

Climate change is a concern of the common people and it also seriously affected, but amidst this ritual of conferences and games around, it has become just an object about which concern is expressed, but nothing is implemented. These conferences will be meaningful only if the facts are established by bottom up approach involving general public before the conference, otherwise they will be just a new tourist destination every year.