RNN + 2 Prompts in Financial Analysis: not big deal.
Source: own elaboration based on public and open data

RNN + 2 Prompts in Financial Analysis: not big deal.

Disclaimer: This analysis does not constitute investment advice. Ironically, the closing price of the Apple stock on May 13, 2023, was $186.28.

Are Apple's stocks undervalued? Where do analysts from JPMorgan, Bloomberg, etc., get the stock values ($210, $220, etc) in this analysis from last week? Have you ever wondered about the fusion of advanced technology and financial analysis, and its potential to reshape investment strategies?

Join me on an enlightening journey as we explore the synergy between artificial intelligence (AI) and finance, revealing the transformative power of AI-driven financial analysis.

In today's dynamic financial landscape, gaining a competitive edge requires more than just traditional analytical tools. As a quantitative finance researcher, I've explored the use of AI-powered financial forecasting, leveraging sophisticated algorithms like recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to uncover invaluable insights and opportunities in the market.

The adaptive learning capabilities of RNNs, inspired by the principles of machine learning, allow the model to continually refine its predictions based on new information, mirroring the concept of adaptive expectations in economics.

At the core of this exploration lies the utilization of RNNs to predict stock prices, a process rooted in economic theory and technological innovation. Drawing from historical stock data obtained from platforms like Yahoo Finance, I embarked on a journey to preprocess the data, ensuring it was appropriately formatted for input into the AI model.

The economic theory underpinning this stage is rooted in the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), which suggests that stock prices reflect all available information and follow a random walk pattern. However, by leveraging AI algorithms like RNNs, we can identify latent patterns and trends within the data that may elude traditional analytical methods, thus gaining a competitive advantage in the market.

As I trained the RNN model to recognize patterns in stock price movements and generate forecasts for future prices, I marveled at the fusion of economic theory and technological innovation at play. The adaptive learning capabilities of RNNs, inspired by the principles of machine learning, allow the model to continually refine its predictions based on new information, mirroring the concept of adaptive expectations in economics.

Source: own elaboration based on public and open data
Source: own elaboration based on public and open data
Source: own elaboration based on public and open data

But the journey didn't stop there. Recognizing the need for actionable insights, I developed two interactive prompts to complement the AI-driven analysis. The first prompt, aimed at providing buy/sell recommendations based on model predictions, draws from behavioral finance theory, which emphasizes the influence of psychological biases on investor decision-making.

Similarly, the second prompt, designed to project stock prices for the next three months, aligns with the principles of rational expectations theory, which posits that individuals form expectations about the future based on all available information. By integrating these prompts into the analysis, we empower investors with actionable insights grounded in both economic theory and technological innovation.

Source: image of my code in RStudio
Source: own elaboration based on public and open data

At the end of the day, the fusion of AI and financial analysis represents a pivotal moment in the evolution of investment strategies. By leveraging advanced technologies like RNNs and interactive prompts, we not only enhance our ability to navigate complex financial markets but also bridge the gap between theory and practice, ushering in a new era of data-driven decision-making in finance. As we continue to push the boundaries of innovation, the future of financial analysis holds boundless opportunities for those willing to embrace the power of AI.


Disclaimer: This analysis does not constitute investment advice. The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Ironically, the closing price of the stock on May 13, 2023, was $186.28.


Prize for those who made it this far: this model runs every day, and you can also change the company to analyze. I do this as a hobby so if you want to know information about a particular company, send me a message.


Diego Vallarino, PhD (he/him)

Global AI & Data Strategy Leader | Quantitative Finance Analyst | Risk & Fraud ML-AI Specialist | Ex-Executive at Coface, Scotiabank & Equifax | Board Member | PhD, MSc, MBA | EB1A Green Card Holder

5 个月

Hi guy, remember this post from three weeks ago? Did you see Apple's results? Would you go short?

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