Risky Business

No, this is not an article about the 1983 movie starring Tom Cruise but rather the World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2015. The bad news first. The likelihood of a Zombie Apocalypse is limited and not even covered by the report. The good news is while there is a lot of perceived risk out there, Ireland seems to be in a relatively good position.

The top 5 global risks in terms of likelihood are:

1. Interstate conflict with regional consequences
2. Extreme weather events
3. Failure of national governance
4. State collapse or crisis
5. High structural unemployment or underemployment

Other than unemployment issues, which it looks like we are turning the corner on, Ireland is largely in a good place for 1-4 above. Interestingly, when we look at the evolving risks landscape (See Table 1.1.1 below), income disparity which was the No. 1 global risk in terms of likelihood for 3 years running is out of the Top 5. This is still a problem in Ireland but globally it is a relative problem. 

When it comes to impact, Ireland is but more susceptible to Top 5 risks but again this is relative:

1. Water crises
2. Rapid and massive spread of infectious diseases
3. Weapons of mass destruction
4. Interstate conflict with regional consequences
5. Failure of climate change adaptation

Now all you water charge protestors probably think we have a water crisis but I think paying a charge for clearn water is a bit of first world problem compared to the wider global context. Being an Island (surrounded by water) gives us opportunities to address and mitigate many of these risks so again relatively speaking Ireland is well positioned. When we look at impact, again there are some major changes. For 8 years, Ireland was disproportionately impacted by the No .1 risk by impact i.e. asset price collapse and fiscal crises. The general feeling of the World Economic Forum is that that particular risk is being addressed currently.

From a technology perspective, the Risk Report also has major insights. The top four are:

1. Cyber Attacks
2. Data Fraud or Theft
3. Misuse of Technologies
4. Critical Information Infrastructure Breakdown

These are not suprising and the first three are all linked and have major impact in trust by individuals and organisations. I'm glad to say that we are looking at these areas in great detail and in particular data protection, security and breach.

If you have some time, it is worth checking out the World Economic Forum report and website. In particular, they have some nice tools for visualising the interconnections between risks, and risks and trends (see below).