Risks of Violence around the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election: A Primer

Nearly four years after former President Donald Trump encouraged a mob to attack the U.S. Capitol, he is running in another close presidential contest. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Michael Wahid Hanna assesses the threat of fresh violence and the implications for U.S. politics.

Read the full Q&A here.

// On Our Radar

Gaza

Israel’s offensive in northern Gaza, now in its third week, shows no sign of slowing. An airstrike on a residential building in Beit Lahia killed over 90 on Tuesday. According to Gazan authorities, around 100,000 people in Jabalya, Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun are trapped in the fighting without food or medical supplies. Crisis Group expert Tahani Mustafa says whatever happens in next week’s U.S. election, Washington should start using its leverage with Israel, including withholding military aid, to press for a halt to the offensive and restoration of humanitarian access. More broadly, a ceasefire and hostage-prisoner exchange deal remain the best way to end the humanitarian disaster in Gaza and free the hostages held there.

Iran-Israel

Israel conducted airstrikes on Iranian air defence systems and weapons production facilities last weekend in retaliation for Iran’s 1 October ballistic missile attack on Israel. Iranian officials have downplayed the damage while warning of “bitter consequences”. Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez says Tehran would be at a distinct disadvantage in the event of further hostilities, due to the exposure of its defensive vulnerabilities and its possibly weakened capacity to replenish offensive stores, compounded by Israel’s continued degradation of Hizbollah’s capabilities in Lebanon. The U.S. presidential election likely also looms large in Iran’s calculations as it weighs a response.

Sudan

The war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is escalating, particularly in Darfur and Khartoum, as the rainy season ends. The UN has warned of a worsening humanitarian crisis, with over 14 million people displaced. A recent RSF attack killed more than 120 people in Gezira state and the army continued bombing villages in Darfur. Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael says the warring parties are targeting civilians with growing impunity, while the expanding involvement of militias in the conflict has heightened intercommunal tensions. The world should act more urgently to end the fighting and address the humanitarian disaster.

You can find previous editions of?On Our Radar?here.?

// Publication

The Conflicts Competing for Attention at the United Nations

When world leaders met at the UN General Assembly in September, they concentrated on the wars in the Middle East, Ukraine and Sudan. An analysis of their speeches highlights the relative importance that different groups of states placed on each of these crises.

Weighing the Case for a New Peacekeeping Mission to Haiti

Haiti has filed a formal request for a blue-helmet force to help national police fight the criminal gangs bedevilling the country. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Renata Segura and Daniel Forti examine the main questions about mounting such an operation.

// Op-Ed

Sri Lanka’s third way

By Alan Keenan, Crisis Group's Senior Consultant for Sri Lanka

Originally published in Inside Story.

// Podcasts

Are the U.S. Elections at Risk of Subversion?

This week on?Ripple Effect, Michael and Steve talk with Rick Hasen, professor at the UCLA School of Law and director of its Safeguarding Democracy Project, about the risks of election subversion in the U.S., efforts for electoral reform, and prospects of violence surrounding the polls.?

Click here to listen on?Apple Podcasts?or?Spotify.

U.S. Elections: Trump, Harris and Transatlantic Relations

This week on?War & Peace, Olga and Elissa talk with Jeremy Shapiro, U.S. Program Director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, about the U.S. presidential election and its implications for the future of transatlantic relations and European security.

Click here to listen on?Apple Podcasts?or?Spotify.

Strongmen and Geopolitical Jostling in Central Africa

This week on?Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Central Africa project director, Enrica Picco, about how leaders in Chad, the Central African Republic and Cameroon are navigating a changing world, what they are doing to stay in power and what it means for the region’s stability.?

Click here to listen on?Apple Podcast or?Spotify.?

// Upcoming Event

Bangladesh Three Months After Hasina’s Downfall: Opportunities and Challenges

In this Crisis Group event, our panellists will provide insight on the interim government’s ambitious reform plans and its prospects for success, with an emphasis on how international partners can support political and economic reforms. The discussion will also touch upon the government’s efforts to stabilise the economy, manage Bangladesh’s international relations and address conflicts in the Chittagong Hill Tracts and Rakhine State.

The online event will be held in English and will be live-streamed on?YouTube.

Click here to register on Zoom.

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