Risk, Resilience & Preparedness in a Chaotic World

“The global order is under revision”, likely the most understated quote from a series of interviews surrounding the inauguration of the latest US President. The events of the past 48 hours and the weeks to come will to the best of every pundit’s ability, be tied to the new leader of the free world, whether you’re a supporter or detractor.

The reality is that, as I’ve written before, this decade is the expected global re-organization. A phenomenon that has occurred every 70-80 years since the age of sail in the 1400s. Clearly delineated by Ray Dalio in the seminal work, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, these events were going to occur in this period irrespective of who was at the helm. The direction and actors may shuffle with a different conductor, but not the process. In simple terms, as a generation perishes and their memory on why the world exists “as is” expires, nations jockey for position, influence and roles on the globe.

All of this is outside our influence, as individuals we are entitled to our views, opinions and beliefs, but those are inconsequential to the global order. Many will choose to “lose it” with an election result, or be “befuddled and unglued” with a politician’s policy initiatives, but again, in the grand scheme, this is and always will be beyond our personal control. Yet many will create stress, amplify anxiety and burden themselves and their families with undo harm as they perceive great peril and injustice.

We all have a responsibility to advocate for a fair world, but the hard truth is that simply because I believe something to be true, that doesn’t make it true. A hard pill to swallow for the keyboard warriors, but in a democracy, we have a say, just not the final say. If I think a politician is a fascist or a Neo-marxist, that doens’t make that true, it just indicates that based upon what I know and understand, that is my conclusion. We see these ongoing, inconsequential and pointless debates detract from the real world events that will influence how we intend to conduct our lives.

Our natural autonomic system is designed to protect us from harm. Our self-defence mechanism or “gut feel” provides us clear indication when something has the potential to lead to harm; we have nature’s finest risk mitigation system pre-installed. Within the disaster and emergency management discipline (DEM), risk and resilience are two of the most widely defined and debated terms. In a recent literature review covering the last 20 years, over 30+ distinct definitions of resilience were found in academic publications. Fair to say the field is heterogeneous on what they are, but simple enough to generalize that risk is a measurement of potential harm and resilience is the ability to navigate that harm. Basic, yes, but arguably accurate.

If risk is what may cause us harm and nature has wired a system to avoid harm, then as a species we should be in good standing. The challenge is that was all for a world that rapidly changed in the 1400s, where we are now exposed to a set of risks initiated across spectrums of political, economic, natural, ideological, cultural and familial that are amplified in a global, technologically connected modern existence. We’ve overpowered our organic systems and need to consider what is missing, how do we reduce or mitigate harm in the 2020s?

Our resilience is our ability to navigate harm, we know that prevention is a misnomer, we cannot stop anything from occurring without altering how society operates. Hence, we accept that life will lead to harm, situations that are beyond our control will place us and our families under the influence of exogenous shock. In this modern world, we cannot live a life that prevents injury or harm, but we can mitigate the risk through resilience.

If we believe that reducing exposure to harm and its effects are within our control, then we are empowered to act. If we conclude that we are unable to influence harm, then we decide to become a victim, to transfer responsibility for losses to external forces, alleviating ourselves of blame. As there is no evidence to support a conclusion that we can prevent loss and injury, our role is to mitigate to the best of our ability, within our resources, in the places we choose to live, living our lives as we decide. Each decision from choosing a home, an occupation, our spouse, leisure and community activities, all contribute to our risk. We must live somewhere, and since the utopia of zero risk has yet to be discovered, we accept a level of potential harm by choosing our homes.

All of these personal decisions, the structure of your life, they all both add potential harm (risk) and reduce impact of that harm (resilience). If we understand our decisions as correlated to our personal risk profile, then we are in a position to guide choices through that lens. Some will think that it is unlikely that as you sit in the fast food lineup you’re considering how this decision impacts your personal risk profile and what measures are available to build your resilience. I’ll argue that you have those private arguments with yourself, the good versus bad struggle, between the deliciousness of that burger and the feeling you know is coming in 30 minutes. You do this throughout the day, though you’ve probably not considered this as your modern version of the pre-wired safety system.

If we know that harm cannot be reduced to zero and that we therefore must live with the potential for harm (risk), then what strategies can we employ in this modern and chaotic world to increase our ability to navigate harmful situations (resilience)? One theory is preparedness, the idea of intentionally considering potential harm in decision making, whether that be in business, family life or throughout the political, economic and natural spectrums. The foundation of readiness is not avoidance, for we know that preventing harm is impossible, it is the cognitive exercise in determining the safest method for completing a task. Preparedness becomes the strategy intentionally employed to mitigate the risk, in order to build resilience against the harm that cannot be reduced to zero.

Preparedness is intent, your choice to decide that you wish to do what you can against what you cannot control. I cannot chose the next US President, but as a resident of Canada that decision is impactful in my life. My responsibility is then not to become a keyboard warrior on the evils of one ideology versus another, but to understand how that decision by the US electorate may affect how I have chosen to live my life. This is accomplished through examining what scholars refer to as the spheres of influence or panes of life: political, economic, cultural, ideological, natural and familial. How will this event potentially impact my personal roadmap in life? A series of questions related to the likely - not hyped or ideologically driven paranoia, but what policy decisions by this politician will impact my life. The key is not the ones you disagree with, the bellicose statements, but the actual policy itself. Who cares what a politician says, what they do is what matters.

Whether the event you’re considering is a political figure, a natural hazard near your home, a challenge to your culture / religion; the mission is to understand what might actually occur and the realistic impact on your life. Preparedness is about first understanding what might occur, how that will affect your normal family operations and then - only then, consider what mitigation strategies you can employ to reduce the potential harm and build resilience. You cannot prevent exogenous shocks from harming you and your family, but you are empowered with all the tools to understand reality for what it is, compare the impacts to your chosen life and then determine what mitigation is within your means.

One final point that is often left out of these discussions is community.

Unfortunately, the current preparedness messaging is about becoming professional victims as individuals or families and avoids the one resource that has kept the species alive for millennia. We are a tribal creation, we thrive in groups and flounder individually, conducting these reflective exercises with your neighbours, community organizations and wide connections brings together resources. It creates social capital, discourse, the exchange of ideas, strategies and potential solutions. The most powerful tool available to you on your journey through risk, resilience and preparedness is your community, the folks who accompany and surround you on your expedition through life.

So when the next election occurs, or some other impactful event, pull yourself out of the ideological pit of despair, understand the real impacts of decisions beyond your control and reduce your exposure to harm and your ability to navigate it. All of that is free, within your control - only if you can step away from the online diatribe of insidious discourse that is “my opinion”, “my truth”, “my belief” and other cleverly designed nomenclature.