Risk Model and System Thinking For Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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?-???????When we have lots of uncertainties and we need to take the right decision with the best strategy and outcome. There are two options: to gamble or to consult risk strategic analyst with great system thinking, to design the risk model and support the risk owner in taking the right decision. And, as much the analyst using the wide beam #system_thinking, and the reliable data with high quality from trusted sources, he would make always great models with great strategies.

?-???????This article would glimpse the insightful light on using the system thinking and designing the risk model for politics subjects, and the case study is Invasion Ukraine by Russia.

?-???????Soviet Union (USSR) invaded several countries during and after second international war (1939- Present), such as (Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Albania, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Croatia, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan, and then after collapse of USSR in 1991, Russia invaded Chechnya, George, Crimea, and Ukraine. These are some historical records to understand the history during the international wars and after it.

?-???????For Russian invasion to Ukraine, positive estimation of the invasion was very high, since 2014, but the sanctions on Russians and also the desire of Russia to to develop its economy, postponed the second invasion and it wakes up again since 2021 when, US got out from Afghanistan, at this time, the best scenario was, holding a strategic meeting between NATO, Russia, Ukraine and UN commissioners, diplomatic parties and write international agreements between those parties to guarantee the independence of Ukraine, Russia and spread UN troops between Russia and Ukraine to keep up the peace to avoid any further invasions but unfortunately, politicians, UN, NATO, political analysts, and the Intelligence agencies didn’t draw up the risk models accurately.

?-???????Below Fish-Bone is a general explanation to causes that lead to the effect of Russian invasion to Ukraine (Figure 1)

????????????????Figure 1: Causes which, leads to effect (Russian invasion of Ukraine)

?-???????Risk model can be calculated and design by different mathematics methodologies, using different techniques of probability, correlation (simple, sophisticated, and nonlinear), Monte-Carlo simulation, regression either linear, nonlinear, logistic, decision tree, sensitive methods, multivariate distribution, value at risk, fitting copulas to data, and others.

Figure No.2 Shows the successful of general risk model to understand the problem and solve it mathematically

?-???????#System_thinking has different levels, and the advanced level thinkers are using the mathematics to analyze and solve the problems. And, at the end they can write a smart script with some of charts or info-graphic to politicians/ business owners/organizations, to describe the problem inside the involved system combined with the interconnection, with all parties, the functions / purposes and of the system/ stakeholders, its components and their interconnections. The possible scenarios of solutions are always attached considering, the system, interconnections and functions and the whole purpose of the system.

?-???????Systems are made up of three parts: elements, interconnections, and a function or a purpose.

?-???????The word “function” is used when talking about a non-human system, and the word “purpose” is ?used for human systems.

?-???????For example: The elements are the actors in the system. In your circulatory system, the elements are your heart, lungs, blood, blood vessels, arteries, and veins. They do the work. The interconnections would be the physical flow of blood, oxygen, and other vital nutrients through your body. The function of the circulatory system is to allow blood, oxygen and other gases, nutrients, and hormones to flow through the body to reach all your cells.

?-???????The system doesn’t include Russia, Ukraine, NATO, US, West (Europe), Chine, India, Saudi-Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, and others. The system includes all the worldwide and the universe components. The universe is saying, “the wars would remain, as the world continues ignoring Palestine disaster and other oppressed nations such as Yemen, Afghanistan, Rohingya and others “.

?-???????This is the truth, that no one considers, that there is a power of universe ‘universe revenge of all oppressed nations’. As much, the powerful countries ignore the oppressed nations such as, Palestine which suffered from more than 74 years, a new war, a health pandemic, terrorism, or natural disaster would be generated.

?-???????Belfiore declaration’s Curse would remain till the world understand the Zionism, and other ideologies of masonry, and Marxism and how it controls the minds and influence to be silent, of what is happened particularly in Palestine, destroy the ethics and morals, increase the double standards between middle East, African, eastern nations and the western nations which is under the umbrella of destroying the humanity values.

?-???????I condemn and agree that what are happened to Ukraine considered terrible crimes and agreed the sanctions to Russia and, also, I have the same response to Palestine, Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Rohingya, Syria and who oppressed them US administration (George W Bosch II), Occupied Israel, China and Russia. All the oppressed nations, should be supported with the same degree from the worldwide and all the oppressors should be sanctioned with the same degree. ?One standard for all nations shall be implemented, as we are all human beings and equal with the same degree. This is language of the fair universe.

???????The Road map:

??- Diplomatic efforts would remain with the quite and confident tone, as much as, Ukrainian side fights strategically and strongly. Neutral and wise parties, shall settle and mediate all parties, Clear agreements shall be witnessed and signed by UN. And UN troops shall be the guarantee on the borders between Russia and Ukraine.

-???????Advanced weapons with high coded strategy have to be provided to Ukraine, (without published on media).

-???????Tactics shall be implemented to target the Russian nations to organize millions of demonstrations from all cities in Russia, and the policemen wouldn’t be capable to stop millions. Nations have power over their governments, when they are major one unit together. The fear inside the free Russian nation shall be broken among such a disaster.

-???????Russia has 22 republics as shown, in Figure No. (3) . Each Republic would have a leader, who would organize the awareness of the truth and organize the demonstrations by millions, true religious men can contribute in that. All the laws which have been issued to ban the demonstrations would be changed after that, Russian nation vote can stop the war and press all the power of executives in Russia.

?a : ?Crimea has not approved by Ukraine or international community ??????

?-???????Rows of Russians’ soldiers shall take sudden strong situation in parallel with Russian nations, if they keen, to not feel ashamed of in-front of the humanity, Ukrainians, history, coming generations and, as well the international crimes court.

?-???????Russian parliament would move accordingly to isolate Putin and hire the suitable democratic president (temporary) till election would take its place.

?-???????Intelligence agents must use coded language especially in military tactics, not all tricks and strategies shouldn’t be announced on Media. And they shall develop the correct tactics for focusing on Russian revolution to change the recent regime and place the new one, that avoid the war and contributing to develop the Russian economy. Figure No. (4) shows the economic situation between 1990-2022

-???????Figure No. (4) shows the economic situation between 1990-2022

?-???????UN, its courts including executive one to issue and implement laws using reliable and strong troops to be placed between Russia, Ukraine and Eastern of Europe borders, once agreements signed between Russia and Ukraine and all guaranteed parties, UN and NATO.

?-???????After the recent disaster, UN shall issue a law to destroy the nuclear weapons at all countries own them, to avoid any coming threats.

?-???????US and west administrations, have to manage their situation with all human cases with the same standard.

?-????????Mathematics tips:

As seen in Figure No.(5), there are three types of correlation between West and Putin Response/action, IS it positive, negative or no correlations?

• Till now, the correlation is positive one, therefore, the predicting to the consequences is very clear.

?Figure No. (5) : Shows that Putin response/action is positive (increase proportionally/cumulatively ) with the West and US response/action, therefore, Russian millions demonstration shall take place as soon as possible.?

?-???????What is the funny thing in this invasion?

·???????Israel (which itself, an illegal occupation to Palestine land) is mediating between Russia and Ukraine. And it welcomes the immigrants Ukrainians who oppressed by Russia to Israel which oppressed Palestine since 1948.

·???????What that black comedy. What is happening is a historical tragedy.

?The consequences of this risk.

????????Disasters on all aspects (Socially, economically, humanitarian, food, politically and others)

-???????Other countries would behave the same as Russia, unless (short- and long-term plan mentioned above) are executed to stop this war.

Recommendation :

Russian Nation by millions voice is very vital to start, as soon as possible, to strongly press the parliament and military forces to stop the war and isolate Putin.

Figure No.(6) Shows the recent situation on the map

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-???????There are a lot to speak about the political tactics not only for Russia-Ukraine. Success Politics is the art to own the diplomatic tactics to solve all problems, avoid the negative risks/ disasters and to create the opportunities.

-???????Please keep up tuned, to know more about coming digital speeches of vital topics, such as climate change risk and solution, renewable energy.

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-???????Through more than 2 decades of experience in the industry and more than three decades using system thinking in all life approaches, I would deliver insights using #Emans_puzzle_strategy_models ??

?Just be tuned and you would see me puzzling using #Emans_Puzzle_strategy_models

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Best Regards,

Dr.Eman Bassiouny Rohayem

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