The Risk of Mega Constellations

For business and national security, space is the next frontier.?

For 64 years, we have been exploring our solar system. From the first missions that sent satellites into Earth orbit, to the rovers we’re now sending to explore the surface of Mars, the past six decades have been a whirlwind of technological innovation and scientific progress.?

Through all the achievements and change, one thing has remained constant: What we put up into space stays there, waste and all.

Right now, there are approximately 500,000 pieces of marble-sized space waste in Earth’s orbit, and more than 20,000 pieces are larger than a softball. Each of these pieces of junk are traveling at approximately 17,500 miles per hour, making each small piece of waste a hyper-fast bullet, capable of destroying anything with which it comes into contact.

Satellite launches, manned space missions, and every other conceivable use of space introduce objects into orbit, from “booster” rocket stages, to nuts and bolts and flecks of paint. Some of the objects fall harmlessly into the atmosphere and “burn up” on re-entry. Fewer still are reused. Most, however, remain in orbit.?

Everything orbiting the Earth right now, whether it is a usable piece of equipment or a piece of junk is called the “orbital population.” Less than 10 percent of the orbital population is satellites. The rest is waste.

Since the first satellite was launched into space in 1957, we have placed approximately 2,000 permanent pieces of functioning technology in orbit. Weather satellites, spy satellites, satellite communications, and cable television make up the brunt of these objects in orbit. Each one required a space launch to get there, and each space launch created more space waste. Everything we have ever sent into space has left something behind.

In the earliest days of space exploration, a satellite could be the size of a small car, requiring an entire rocket to propel just one into orbit. Today’s satellites can be the size of a toy car, and can be orbited dozens at a time. These ultra-small satellites function in concert, creating a “web” of coverage all over the globe. They are called “mega-constellations.”

SpaceX was the first to create a mega-constellation, with its Starlink internet service satellites. As of September 2021, SpaceX had launched 1,740 satellites in its mega-constellation, almost doubling the number of active satellites in orbit. It plans to launch thousands more (as many as 15,000), and it is not the only company doing so.

UK-based OneWeb aims to have around 650 satellites in orbit and Amazon plans to orbit more than 3,000 for its Project Kuiper. That is not to mention other nations, which are also developing mega-constellations. It is?estimated roughly 50,000 satellites?will be in orbit in the coming decades. That will be one incredible space traffic jam.

Given the frequency with which existing satellites must change orbit, or maneuver to avoid space debris, the addition of thousands more objects in space should raise alarms. Since each launch not only introduces satellites but also more debris, with each satellite launch we will be increasing the in-orbit debris field exponentially at a time when we have — so far — devised no plan to reduce it.?

Every existing theory for reducing space debris is in its infancy. Very few have progressed to testing. While I am encouraged by efforts such as?Project Clear Constellation, sponsored by Rubicon, to devise new strategies for reducing debris in space, any plan to come out of that competition will be years away. Meanwhile, mega-constellations are growing right now.

The risk to the world economy and our national security is clear. Our communications, entertainment, and military all rely on satellite technology. Even the collision of merely two satellites in orbit will create a large debris field, greatly expanding the number of objects in orbit. The more collisions, the more debris, and the threat continues to grow. This could lead to what?scientists call the Kessler Effect, a runaway chain reaction of collisions, eventually destroying everything in orbit.

The free market has brought us great innovations. Indeed, space travel is an example of innovation on a grand scale. While the earliest efforts were funded by governments, today’s space race is driven by business, and it is up to business to solve the challenges we now face.?

It is time for the free market to turn its attention to solving the problem of space waste. What is at stake are billions of dollars of infrastructure and no less than the security of our great nation. Rubicon is leading the charge with Clear Constellation. Who will join us??