Risk Intersectionality 3: Horsemen of the Apocalypse

This is the third instalment based on a conference presentation, the first provided a brief view of world history and the second of human population growth and expansion.?Here we look at the risks that we have faced and are facing.

The last chapter of the Christian Bible’s New Testament describes the End of Days, when we are visited by the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse: CONQUEST, WAR, FAMINE & PLAGUE—the scourges known to the ancients. Conquest and War are man-versus-man; Famine and Disease are usually man-versus-nature, but they can also accompany man-versus-man.

Conquest

The inclusion of Conquest might seem unusual, but in ancient times it typically meant slavery or death of those conquered. The Spanish conquest of the Americas is the primary example, which was accompanied by diseases that spread far beyond the areas conquered.

War

At least with War, you had a fighting chance, such that the innocents could flee to the hills. War can take on various forms though, ranging from David versus Goliath to the Death Star versus Alderaan. In recent times, World War II was the most devastating, with most deaths occurring off the battlefield. Where most wars in history have been for land or plunder, future wars might be fought over water or microchips.

Famine

Famine usually results from the vagaries of nature, especially when rainy seasons and grain stores fail.?Exceptions were the Hunger Extermination of Ukrainians during the 1930s and China’s Four Pests campaign in the late 1950s—the former intentional, the latter an error of judgment.?These were the worst in human history.

Disease

And as for disease, the deadliest result from transmission between different species and much has resulted from the domestication of animals and our living in close proximity to them. In more recent years, however, HIV, Ebola, COVID-19 and monkeypox have come from the wilds.?

Modern

Climate Change

While those are the horsemen of old, many more have of late been added to the stable, some of which are related.?First and foremost is climate change, which will be covered in much more detail later.

Stressed Migration

Next is stressed migration, where people seek to escape poor or deteriorating conditions in favour of better pastures. Of late, much is due to political mismanagement in the Americas, conflict in Europe, and poor conditions in the Middle East and Africa. And unfortunately, those who leave are typically the most entrepreneurial and productive, and a severe loss to those regions that they leave.?

Failed States

This one is a major contributor to stressed migration, i.e. where politics is dysfunctional and social cohesion breaks down. The flag is of course that of Lebanon, but similar is occurring in many other countries to a greater or lesser degree. (including South Africa, where I live)

Technology

Technology has been the bedrock of our industrial revolutions, but, it also presents risks.?In particular, those of Technological Failure, Vulnerability to Attack and Abuse by Users. More on this later!

Irrational Exuberance

Next up are the bubbles created when we get carried away. Amongst the first were the Tulip, South Sea and Mississippi bubbles over four centuries ago, and more recently the Roaring 20s and Subprime bubble of the early 2000s. A common refrain is that “this time it will be different!” I wonder where we are with cryptocurrencies.

Powerful Men

And finally, we have powerful men. This montage is a mish-mash of megalomaniacs, psychopaths, narcissists and incompetents most of whom history does not remember well—albeit that can vary by country and political leaning, and, over time. Several recent examples were excluded for fear of upsetting politically-sensitive viewers, but common identifiers are bad hair or the lack of it.

NOTE: For the conference I was asked to remove to replace certain pictures of contemporary leaders to avoid upsetting political sensitivities in China and elsewhere.

Common Factor

Again, it must be stressed that the common factor here is people.?Even climate change comes back to people.?If the human race…??One must then ask the question, “If we were to disappear off the face of the planet tomorrow, would anybody miss us?” The answer, is…

… our dogs, cats, and other domestic animals that depend upon us for their survival.?And if it has been 70,000 years since the African diaspora began, within another 70,000 there would be almost no trace that we ever existed (unless you are an alien palaeontologist or archaeologist).

Risk Intersectionality

While those are individual risks, what if they overlap at the same time.?I have hijacked the concept of intersectionality from the social sciences where it refers to how a person’s social and political identities combine to create either discrimination or privilege.?I learnt of it when helping a very angry young woman dealing with the challenges of being simultaneously black, blind, homosexual and female in what is supposed to be a tolerant society.?For our purposes, risk intersectionality is where risks intersect, especially when it works to our detriment.?

536–549 AD, Byzantine double whammy

Some historical examples are evident. In the sixth century, a volcanic winter caused crop failures and starvation worldwide and the global cooling made it possible for plague-infested rats to move from Ethiopia through Egypt into the Byzantine empire and beyond, probably hitting China by 600 AD. Deaths from the pandemic alone were as much as 20 percent of the human population.?

1340–60, Italian double whammy

The next example is in the 14th century, when a massive bank default coincided with another plague. Florentines had made huge wealth from the wool trade, much of which was deposited with the Bardi and Peruzzi megabanks. They made the mistake of lending money to England’s King Edward III for what is now called the Hundred Years War against France, in an era when it was thought that Kings could not default. Depositors lost 80 percent of their monies as a result. The Black Death then moved from east to west and killed between 15 and 45 percent of the world population. There was little money left to aid the Italian peninsula’s recovery from the pandemic.?

1914–20, European double whammy

The end of World War I coincided with the Spanish Flu, which originated in the United States but mutated when it came into contact with pigs in Belgian trenches. Deaths from the pandemic were greater than those of the war, with rates between 10 and 30 times that of COVID-19. These events set the stage for the exuberant sex-crazed Roaring 20s, the Great Depression, and World War II. Deaths this time were between 2 and 5 percent of the world population.

21st century, Triple Whammy

And today, we are presented with three colliding factors: (i) disease, as we are coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic but are now being presented with monkeypox; ii) conflict, which is currently limited to a specific region but is having repercussions around the globe; and iii) climate change, which has accelerated in recent years. Thus far, the death tolls from these three have been miniscule compared to the earlier calamities, but the economic impact has been significant.?Regarding conflict, many of my classmates had Ukrainian parents or grandparents, so you will know where my sympathies lie.

What’s next

We must now ask, “What’s next?”. Are extra-terrestrials about to land??For interest, those images are from the movie District 9 which is a satirical play on South Africa’s racist history. Johannesburg’s centre is the backdrop, where I worked for 30 years. My wife walked out of the movie because of excessive violence against the alien prawns, and the massive amounts of green blood splattering everywhere.?

GLOBAL RISKS 2022

The next instalment in this series will look at global risks, mostly as presented in a report presented by the World Economic Forum in a report published early in 2022 but based primarily on inputs from 2021..