Risk Intersectionality 2: Population

This is the second instalment that is based on a recent conference presentation.?The first provide a whirlwind view of world history, and this one now looks at human population growth and migrations.

A simple equation

With the cognitive revolution, conditions changed and a simple equation emerged. The combination of food and other resources, combined with a stable and receptive environment, leads to population growth.?And where those do not exist, species go in search.?That applies to any species, including some that we abhor.

Human migrations

Over the next millennia, the human population grew. There was a bottleneck about 70,000 years ago that wiped out almost all humans outside of Africa but thereafter the species migrated to settle all continents but one, Antarctica, the most inhospitable. Initial waves followed coastlines to the east, but as the planet warmed, they moved north into Europe, Asia and eventually the Americas.?Areas settled much later were either very chilly or difficult to get to. Note Greenland and Iceland… and Madagascar and New Zealand.

NOTE: Our evolutionary bottleneck is today attributed to a super-volcanic eruption 74,000 years ago at Lake Toba in Sumatra, present day Indonesia.

World Population through History

Throughout this, the world population has grown, albeit with minor setbacks like the Plague of Justinian and the Black Death. This graph has time on a logarithmic scale, to highlight the recent trajectory.?From a measly 10,000 or so individuals 70,000 years ago we are now approaching or past 8 billion, with most of the growth after 1950—which has been perhaps the longest period of relative stability the world has ever seen. Once again, cheaper (an often unhealthy) food has played a role, which has made many of us fatter.

The Revolutions behind Population Growth

The growth is especially evident in this graph! For most of human history, it was under one-tenth of one percent per year. The acceleration came with the successive “revolutions” during the last 1,000 years and especially in the last 300. It has now peaked but it will take decades before it is negative, barring some major calamity—which is not outside of the realm of possibility.?Expectations are that it might breach 11 billion and eventually settle at around 6 billion.

Population by Continent

It must be noted that growth rates vary significantly by geography. This graph highlights the increasing Asian share while Europe’s declined. More startling is the path of Africa, which could surpass Asia in the 22nd century. Many years ago, an academic at a conference spoke of the potential demographic dividend for Africa. I called the growth disgusting, and, was fortunately not decried as a racist because I had also been very outspoken on other topics, much to the delight of that academic. Note, that I had to be careful about the choice of colours for this graph, which are those used in the Olympic rings.

Famine versus Wakanda

When I search for famine images on the Internet well over 90 percent are from Africa and the extent of migration to Europe and elsewhere is significant.?There is, however, much promise on the continent. As the saying goes, “Necessity is the mother of invention”, and in Africa the lack of infrastructure is driving technological innovation, or its innovative use.?To get best value, countries must invest in people (especially women) such that they can help themselves. Five years ago, I was in Karachi, where a taxi driver bragged about his wife being uneducated and having five children. I was not impressed.

Elephant in the Room

The topic of population control is the “elephant in the room”, that is, something obvious and controversial that nobody wants to talk about. Today, news broadcasts are dominated by climate change, geopolitical issues and migration when population growth is the ultimate cause.?Demographic dividends are possible, but only result with appropriate planning and investment.?

Population Policies

Many countries have population policies, but these vary between rich and poor countries.?The situation in poor countries has been relatively stable since 1995 with half hoping to limit growth and perhaps 10 percent trying to increase. By contrast, an increasing proportion of wealthy countries have ageing populations and hope to maintain them by increasing birth rates or through immigration. And there is no shortage of willing immigrants.

Modern Times

My mother, Myra Anderson, blamed the fall in North American birth rates on the advent of electricity and television. She was quite outspoken, a true Canadian redneck with a pioneering spirit. I was laughed at when I mentioned this in a university classroom many years later, but then recognised the correlation with both increasing affluence and urbanisation. The affluent hope for better lives for their children and opt to invest more in fewer children. The urbanised have better access to amenities and services but less space within which to live and raise children.

Hazard mortalities

This graph is old but not invalid. It rates regions according to the death tolls resulting from natural calamities, and it is telling how much is affected by population density and living conditions, especially along the equatorial belt. The worst affected areas are Africa, Asia and Central America.?Pakistan has recently experienced massive floods. It is supposedly only responsible for one percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, but it has three percent of the global population whose aspirations will push emissions to the upside.

END of PART 2:?POPULATION GROWTH

That is the end of Part 2.?The next instalment is on Risks Ancient and Modern, looking at an expanded set of Horsemen of the Apocalypse.??