Risk Intelligence: Key to Mitigating Socio-cultural Risks In India

India Rising

Over the past two weeks, there have been a couple of major developments in India. It has caught the attention of global leaders. And, it has reinforced the case of why despite headwinds, India will continue to increasingly become a favoured destination for foreign investments. Large financial companies such as Goldman Sachs are reportedly switching some of their funds earmarked for China to India.??

On 13 February, Air India (one of India’s largest aviation companies), announced its plan to purchase 470 passenger aircrafts from Airbus and Boeing. This purchase by Air India is valued at approximately $100 billion. The news attracted massive praises from all quarters. American President, Joe Biden, released a statement, explaining that the purchase of 200 American-made aircrafts by Air India would support 1 million American jobs across 44 states. The significance of the deal was highlighted by French President, Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak too in separate statements.?

On 11 February, The Geological Survey of India announced that it had discovered 5.9 million tonnes of lithium-inferred resources in Jammu & Kashmir. Overnight, this discovery put India in number 7 spot in the list of countries with the most amount of lithium resources.???

As a nation, India has been making rapid progress. It is the fifth largest economy in the world and remains amongst the fastest growing economies of the world with a 7.2% growth forecast for 2023.?

In fact, many world leaders believe that the next decade belongs to India. During this year's World Economic Forum, Klaus Schwab stated that India remains a bright spot amid global geo-economics and prolonged geopolitical crises.?

The country’s startup ecosystem has matured rapidly. Today it is the third largest startup ecosystem in the world with 90,000 startups and 107 unicorns, with their combined valuation of over $345 billion.?

Another development which has been attracting plenty of attention is the Indian government’s ambitions to make India a leader in semiconductor manufacturing. As part of its goal, in 2021, the government passed a program to invest $10 billion in developing the semiconductor industry in the country.? Foxconn & Vedanta have already announced a joint investment of around $18 billion.

Apple is outsourcing the manufacturing of its iPhone 14 to India. The largest Apple manufacturing plant will reportedly be built in India which will employ up to 60,000 people.

Google announced a $10 billion Google for India Digitisation Fund in 2020.?

There are very good reasons why major companies are aggressively investing or expanding further in India.

The Changing Socio-cultural Risk Landscape?

The India growth story though comes with its share of challenges for companies operating in India. And, in order to succeed, it is vital to understand those very challenges.?

India’s size, population, diversity, demographics, poverty, politics, corruption etc are factors which cannot be discounted. But, in recent years a segment of the population has developed an intolerance towards certain cultural, religious and national issues. Companies that have failed to take cognizance of those factors have experienced a backlash.?

Let’s look at a few cases.

Jack Dorsey Accused of Hate Mongering

On his visit to India in 2018, Jack Dorsey, the founder and former CEO of Twitter, met with a group of women journalists, activists and writers. During this meeting, Dorsey was handed a placard criticising the prevailing patriarchy which is aided by India’s deep rooted caste system. The group photographed themselves with Dorsey and the image was posted in a tweet by one of the attendees.

What followed was a barrage of criticism hurled at Dorsey and Twitter by a large number of social media users; these included some of the most influential personalities in India. Dorsey was accused of hate-mongering, inciting violence and even “Hinduphobia.” Many people called on the government to take strong action against Dorsey and Twitter.

Twitter was quick to apologise. Vijaya Gadde, Twitter’s former Head of Legal, Policy, Trust and Safety immediately took to Twitter in an attempt to calm flaring tempers. She clarified that the photo was not reflective of the company’s views and extended an apology for their actions.??????

In the Indian state of Rajasthan, a representative of a Brahmin organisation filed a police complaint (FIR) against Dorsey for allegedly defaming the Brahmin community. Although the court stayed Dorsey’s arrest, it refused to quash the FIR (complaint).

Apologies from Hyundai, Dominos, KFC for Kashmir Solidarity Day fiasco?

5 February is Kashmir Solidarity day. It is a national holiday which is observed in Pakistan. On this day in 2022, Pakistani counterparts of several large foreign brands such as Dominos, Pizza Hut, KIA, Hyundai etc posted solidarity messages on their social media pages.

Given the sensitivity associated with the Kashmir issue, it was likely that these actions would trigger a backlash in India. And, that is precisely what happened. There were calls on social media to boycott these brands in India. On ground protests took place outside some of the brands outlets in India demanding them to down their shutters. Senior politicians and bureaucrats openly expressed their displeasure.

Soon, the brands involved had to tender public apologies in a bid to manage the crisis.

Netflix and Amazon Prime Video Trigger Anti-Hindu Sentiments?

Both Netflix and Amazon Prime Video have been accused of upsetting Hindu sentiments. Netflix’s series “A Suitable Boy” - showed a Muslim man and a Hindu woman kissing against the backdrop of a temple. This drew the ire of several rightwing groups, including leaders from the country’s ruling party, the BJP.? Two officials from Netflix India were also booked by the police for “objectionable scenes.”

In Amazon Prime Video’s case, its series “Tandav,” faced a backlash for allegedly portraying Hindu deities in a derogatory manner and in the process insulting Hindu’s. There were immediate calls on social media for the series to be boycotted. Several leaders from the BJP criticised the series. A police complaint was filed against the makers of the series. Subsequently, the controversial scenes had to be deleted or edited and Amazon Prime had to tender an apology.

Snap CEO Invites Criticism for Calling India Poor

In April 2017, Snap’s CEO, Evan Spiegel was accused of calling India a poor country. One of India’s major news outlets reported that in an internal communication, Spiegel had allegedly stated that “Snap is only for rich people. I don’t want to expand into poor countries like India and Spain.”?

What ensued was an uproar on social media. Many Indian celebrities declared that they would stop using Snap with immediate effect, receiving wide support from their fans to do the same. Other public figures and influential personalities called for boycotting the app and downgrading its rating on Google’s Play Store.?

A notable escalation for the company was an Indian hacking group leaking the data of 17 million Snap users. They claimed that this was in retaliation to Spiegel’s comment and demanded an apology.?

The company responded by denying that any such a statement had been made.

Tanishq Accused of Promoting Love Jihad

In November 2020, Tanishq - one of India’s biggest jewellery brands, released an advert showing a Muslim family planning a baby shower for their Hindu daughter-in law. Immediately, the advert attracted massive criticism from right wing groups.

Tanishq was accused of promoting “love jihad” - a derogatory term used by fringe groups to describe interfaith relationships.?

#boycotttanishq started trending on social media. Subsequently, the pressure from trolls and supporting statements from influential personalities, led to the company withdrawing the ad over concerns of hurting sentiments, and in the interest of the well-being of its employees and partners.

5 Notable Takeaways?

1. Anything that can be viewed as anti-cultural or anti-India is likely to receive a strong backlash.???
2. The backlash will most likely begin on social media, usually on twitter. It will then be reported in various news channels. In some instances, on ground protests will take place. Depending on the issue, at times those protests could turn violent.
3. In the cases covered here, the persons or companies involved had ignored or undermined the sensitivity associated with their actions. Their incident management responses suggested that they were unprepared for the tsunami of negative reactions.
4. In all instances, the reputations of the persons or companies involved were impacted. Albeit minimal, they experienced financial losses. Some of them had to deal with legal charges pressed against them.
5. The risk of violence being perpetrated against the persons or companies involved, increased significantly in the immediate aftermath of the incident.?????

How Risk Intelligence Can Increase The Likelihood of Success??

1. Risk Forecasting: During the planning stage of an event (launch of a brand campaign, CEO making public appearances, production of a web-series etc), Risk Intelligence teams can provide focused risk assessments. These assessments will help concerned stakeholders in anticipating potential risks.
2. Threat Actor Profiling: Risk assessments are likely to identify groups or individuals who may be categorised as potential threat actors. These groups or individuals would usually carry a reputation for attacking brands or individuals on specific issues. Profiling these individuals or groups would help in understanding their motivations, modus operandi and capabilities.????
3. Scenario Planning: By factoring the inputs provided by the Risk Intelligence team, stakeholders can plan against disruptive scenarios. Usually each scenario has an element of intelligence collection associated with it. Proactive and active intelligence collection could take effect if and when specific scenarios start to take shape.??
4. Sentiment Monitoring and Analysis: Cases have shown that negative sentiments are first voiced over social media. It is the medium for achieving virality. With the right resources (human and tech), Risk Intelligence teams today are well placed to monitor and analyse sentiments over social media. Effective monitoring can help identify a spark before it turns into a fire. A timely escalation enables a timely response. It goes a long way in delivering a fairly controlled response. This usually helps achieve a favourable outcome.????
5. Damage Minimisation: In the event of an escalation, intelligence collection and analysis will still play a significant role. A number of decisions would need to be made at a rapid pace. To make those decisions, data and information is critical. Risk Intelligence teams can deliver the data points which will help in minimising the damage.