Risk Compensation: Misplaced Safety Perceptions

Doosra, the second one, is a dangerous delivery in cricket; it doesn’t spin the way you expect it to. Likewise, the second wave of the pandemic in India isn’t going the way we hoped it would. The current situation, in spite of the fact that we are wiser from the 2020 experiences, is critical. Today, there is greater understanding of the behavior of the virus, with higher level of sensitization on how to keep oneself safe from the contagion. We were taken aback when the Corona Virus hit the world last year forcing us into a lockdown; we were housebound, played the waiting game, and over a few months’ time, seemed to get a handle on the situation. There was an urge to get back to near-normal state of affairs as we developed a confidence that the virus could be kept at bay if we adopt a certain lifestyle. This optimism came in the backdrop of a vaccination drive in the nation which further enhanced the safety perception. The virus mutates, and there are grave dangers in a second wave. Having said that, the question being asked here is whether we as citizens, have done enough to control the controllable factors. Did a false sense of security make us cross the thin line that separates confidence from overconfidence? Did the vaccination rollout make us think that we have turned the tables on the virus? Did we miss out on the basics and let our guards down?

As the second wave tightens its grip, there are restrictions in place and we are spending a lot of time indoors. As I watch the IPL action from the safety of my home, there are many ads that catch my attention. One of them stands out; it features Rahul Dravid, the soi-disant Gunda of Indira Nagar, for I have always admired him and been a big fan of his. My thoughts went to an anecdote that involved him, this time in his usual self, and English batsman Kevin Pietersen, about a decade ago. When KP approached Dravid for help in overcoming his troubles against spin bowling, he replied with a long mail that did a world of good for the Englishman, as acknowledged in his autobiography. A certain part of the mail struck a chord with me in light of the points raised by me here before I meandered into cricket. Dravid asks the Englishman to bat against his spin-bowling team mates Greame Swann and Monty Panesar in practice sessions without pads, or with just the knee pad on. This, he believed, would help KP in fixing his technical flaw by forcing him to watch the ball better and move the bat forward, instead of the leg. Simple, but makes lot of sense! The feeling of safety that protective gear gives you, can slowly come in the way of you doing things the right way. Same with helmets and the ability of many modern-day batsmen to play the bouncer. India’s batting legend Sunil Gavaskar, one of the best players of fast bowling in his time, feels that many of the current crop of players don’t have the right back foot technique to play short-pitched bowling. The sense of safety comes in the way of them taking the extra effort required to counter such bowling. 

People change their behavior depending on the level of perceived danger. As per the Risk Compensation Theory, we are likely to be more careful when we sense danger and less careful if we feel safe. Prof. Sam Peltzman of Chicago Booth argues that people show a greater tendency to engage in risky behavior when the perceived sense of security is high. For instance, he has looked at sea-belt regulations which are supposed to increase driving safety, but for the behavioral change in drivers, who, emboldened by the feeling that they are well-protected, drive rashly and cause other casualties, defeating the very purpose of the regulation. The vaccine rollout was supposed to slow down the virus, but we are seeing quite the opposite. While there are epidemiological explanations for why a second wave could be deadlier than the first, our focus here is on what we we could do to keep ourselves safe and break the transmission chain of the virus. With the vaccines being administered in two doses, we should keep in mind that maximum immunity is attained after a certain period post the second shot, while being cognizant of the fact that the protection can’t be taken as absolute even after the full cycle. We need to mask up for the world, get vaccinated as soon as possible, sanitize our hands, and not wash our hands off the great accountability we have. We need to be on our guard, just like the batters who need to move back and across for the bouncer, and play spin bowling bat-first on a tricky wicket, even though they are well-protected by modern cricket gear.