RISK ANALYSES

Changing to electric vehicle operation in Sweden is good. We normally have hydropower and other means of producing very high quality electricity, which all countries do not have. The lower use of total energy (W2W) and the energy origin is very favorable up here - but it is not always the same. Driving an electric car in Poland where electricity still has a Brown Coal origin may very well be worse than driving an older diesel vehicle up here in the north. (Sorry for using the wonderful land of Poland as an example here)

In the finance world, we are trained to think in terms of "RISK" and the closer anything comes to commercial, the closer comes the question of risk and its analyses. Several tasks remains yet to be adressed under such headlines. Here some matters where I have not seen professional assessment of what risks an electric vehicle society are looking at, Risk of: 1) battery metal material shortage, 2) non sufficient electricity supply, ") low flexibility in market segments (distance stress, long haul, defense, air transport...), 3) digital attack on electric and digital systems, 4) reduced customer acceptance (accidents, lack of smart re-charge, 5) lack of electricity (at acceptable price)), 6) boring sites for re-charging, 7) not meeting 2035/2045/2050 climate and green targets for complete fleets etc. etc.

Spreading the risk is a lesson learned and a principle well taken. Never-te-less, there is very little activity on fossil-free hydrogen that is given publicity. The Biogas/RNG has not been heard at all from political stakeholders and not from lobbyists or any green organizations - only from their own representatives. Likewise about synthetic fuels where we hear nothing from those who claim to be neutral. How well spread is the know-how that biogas from farming can deliver negative CO2 as their spare products after extraction of the gas can replace other fossil products, this is beyond what any electric vehicle can ask for applause for. Any country can show abundantly of such good examples, but the electric lobby and industry (OEMs included) talks with such a volume, nothing else can be heard.

My single message is that THE GOOD AND THE BEST MUST NOT BE ENEMIES, BUT PARTNERS.

Mats Ekelund. Advisor to the OEMs and Energy Providers for 30 years on the change from fossil to non-fossil. Investment Banker and M&A servant during the last 10 years.