The Rising Rise, of Rice Consumption
When the Green Revolution took off in Asia, its flight was supported by several variables.
One of these was the development of high-yielding crop varieties through conventional breeding. Naturally, this encouraged the expansion of farmlands which was further bolstered by farm mechanization. These items, when bundled together with increased usage of agro-chemicals, doubled production of Asian rice (O. Sativa) between 1970 and 1995. Despite a population increase of 60%, rice prices fell and widespread famine was abated. Several Asian economies grew tremendously as a result of this, and still do.
Now, back to Kenya. I have been studying this SDG Academy Program on Feeding Hungry Planet for a number of weeks now. Since it is a self-paced program, I take it in little doses every so often, like a prescribed drug. Then, I sit in a quite corner, and allow the drug to take its effect. In the meantime, I sometimes read or watch some other things, to boost the hallucinatory effect. It's quite an interesting thing, metaphorically speaking. Once out of the stupor, I use those hallucinations as a basis for these blogs. Most recently, the one I have been experimenting the most with is this particular kind of grass:
Rice.
In a previous blog, I wrote of how things change with time. Individuals, societies, and the environments they call home change. It is the only constant thing, and so we must adapt to these changes, or be wiped away. One variation that has been rather obvious is the fact that Kenyans are consuming rice at an unprecedented rate. Whereas a generation ago some men would frown at the thought of eating rice instead of cornmeal, things are changing fast. Changing dietary preferences and a rapidly growing population are the usual suspects.
Think of this: The annual rate of increase in rice consumption in Kenya is 12%. Compared to maize and wheat which, in all their forms increase at an average rate of less than 3%, the consumption of rice is growing tremendously fast. According to this news feature, Kenyans consume up to 400,000 MT of rice annually, while production hovers around 80,000-120,000 MT. That, of course, means that we import more than 70% of our rice, at an annual cost of around 14 Billion Shillings (Approx. $140 million). Ouch!
Anyway, this is not a uniquely Kenyan situation. Rice is a staple food for half the global population, mainly in Asia. However, other parts of the world are quickly catching up. The fastest growth is being experienced in the Middle East and African countries like Kenya. In African countries alone, consumption has doubled in the last 15 years. Those are staggering numbers. When one considers that the global population will increase by some 3 billion people in about 30 years, it is quite clear that demand for rice will continue rising.
The global rice equation simply states that, for every additional 1 billion people, we must produce at least 100 million more tons of rice, annually. Therefore, the global production of rice, which currently stands at around 700,000,000 MT per annum, has to increase tremendously. Experts at the SDG Academy argue that to meet these demands, the annual yield gross has to go up to rise from the current 1% up to about 1.5%. This could translate into 12.5% more milled rice by 2030, and 20% more, a decade later.
These metrics indicate that, in terms of sustainable development, rice is arguably the most important food crop. If agriculture is at the center of sustainable development, then rice is the key driver. What is done with rice will have widespread effects across many other sectors, beyond agriculture. If not managed well, demand for rice, this innocent grass, could bring about a humanitarian crisis. Therefore, addressing the increasing demand is vital for ensuring that these goals of sustainable development are achieved.
As I mentioned at the beginning of this hallucination, the Green Revolution heavily relied on conventional breeding and intensification through heavy usage of agrochemicals and expanding farmlands. However, we can no longer rely on such conventional methods alone, even as many African nations are trying to fully realize their own green revolutions. In Asian countries of the 1960s, the main challenge was increasing productivity. Today in Africa as anywhere else in the world, there are more variables to consider, such as the environment.
Growth in productivity has to be done sustainably, by being cognizant of the existing environmental barriers. Beyond increasing production, the SDG Academy calls for sustainable intensification of rice production through three other parallel pathways:
- Adapting rice farming to a harsher climate
It is a fact of life that the climate has changed. The globe has, and is still warming. One only has to look at the peaks of Mounts Kenya and Kilimanjaro against stock footage to understand this, with no need of any scientific explanations. We at Kings Agricultural Services were at both sites recently, training farmers, and the mountains are sad. Their crowns are almost all gone.
Still, rice must be grown. Every degree rice in temperature could cause a 10% reduction in rice yields. An example is how a 2016 drought led to the worst yields in 60 years at Kenya's rice-growing Mwea Irrigation Scheme. At the same time, there are harsh weathers such as El Ninos and La Ninas. Therefore, crop has to be adapted to such harsher climates. It has to be able to withstand, for instance, extreme flooding as well as extreme temperature fluctuations. The crop will also have to be grown in drier, non-traditional areas.
2. Reducing the environmental footprint of rice production
Currently, rice is grown on a total of about 160M hectares of land globally. Half of this is intensified irrigated farmlands, which account for 75% of global rice production. To achieve this, 3000-5000 Kg of water are needed to produce a kilogram of rice. Furthermore, rice contributes about 5-10Kg of global methane emissions.
Sustainable intensification would mean increasing the productivity of existing farmlands, with minimal if any clearing of new land. It would also mean reduction in water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, rice fields would be better suited to perform vital ecological services such as: Soil carbon sequestration; flood and erosion control; disease and climate regulation, and protecting biodiversity.
3. Structural transformation across the rice value chain
Now that it is clear that how big a challenge rice production is, there has to be transformation in all kinds of ways to enhance productivity. The SDG Academy calls for, among other things, introducing new rice business models to lower cost pf production; increasing mechanization, and enhancing professionalism particularly among smallholders. Dr. Paul Omanga, a food security expert, holds that these are things which could be applied in the Kenyan context to improve production of rice.
Conclusion
All matters considered, we know that: Production has to go up, we have no choice but to ensure it does. Rice production has to be intensified in a sustainable manner. The environmental footprint has to be low, or the consequences will be undesirable. These are not easy things, but they must be done. With all these in mind, how do we go about it?
In comes Genetics, and the green super rice.
In the follow-up blog, I will explain how genomic breeding is, and can be used to provide one solution.
