Rising Fears of Russia and Iran's Election-Driven Violence in the U.S.
As the 2024 U.S. election approaches, a growing chorus of concern from intelligence officials highlights the role that foreign adversaries, particularly Russia and Iran, may play in post-election chaos. These fears are not unfounded, considering the recent activity of Russia in Europe and the playbook of interference they have honed over the past decade.
Russia's New Approach in Europe: A Prelude to U.S. Interference?
This year alone, 48 individuals linked to Russian sabotage activities have been arrested across Europe, signaling a marked increase in covert operations by Moscow. With many Russian spies expelled from European countries, Russia has shifted its tactics to leverage local proxies and online misinformation. This adaptive approach allows them to stay engaged despite diminished physical presence.
The Kremlin's infamous Unit 29155, a secretive part of Russia's military intelligence (GRU), has become increasingly active. Traditionally known for destabilizing operations, the unit has been implicated in multiple sabotage incidents across Europe. Analysts suggest that this heightened activity is likely a test run for what could unfold in the U.S. following the election.
If Kamala Harris emerges victorious, it is anticipated that Russia, who favors Donald Trump, will leverage its capabilities—including those of Unit 29155—to disrupt the post-election landscape. Given Harris’ stance on Russia, intelligence sources warn that Moscow could incite violence and unrest, particularly in key swing states, as a way to challenge her legitimacy.
The Warning Signs for the U.S.
American intelligence officials, including those from the FBI and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), have flagged the possibility that Russia and Iran could move swiftly to undermine the democratic process as votes are counted. These actions are not about changing votes directly, but about undermining confidence in the entire process—seeding doubt, chaos, and even potential violence.
Recent tactics include disseminating disinformation targeting candidates and even fabricating scandals. For instance, a staged video falsely accused Tim Walz, the Democratic vice-presidential nominee, of misconduct—a narrative quickly debunked but still damaging in its effect. Meanwhile, Iran is expected to amplify divisive rhetoric to exploit existing social tensions.
Intelligence agencies are predicting efforts to incite unrest not only on Election Day but through the certification and inauguration process. The hope from foreign actors is to create an enduring image of chaos, calling into question the validity of American democracy itself.
What This Means for Leaders
Business and civic leaders should take note: foreign interference is not merely a political issue but one with broad implications for social stability and economic confidence. A disorderly election transition could create shocks that impact financial markets, consumer confidence, and corporate operations.
Companies would be well-advised to review their crisis response plans and ensure that their digital infrastructure is secure against potential cyberattacks. Similarly, business leaders should be aware of the risks of disinformation campaigns affecting employees or public relations and develop strategies to mitigate these risks.
In this volatile time, a key takeaway for Americans is the need for resilience. Russia, Iran, and even China have demonstrated their willingness to exploit vulnerabilities to further their own agendas. But by staying informed, strengthening community bonds, and remaining vigilant against misinformation, the United States can counteract these foreign threats.
The election process should be a moment of democratic pride, not an opportunity for adversaries to wreak havoc. Addressing this challenge will require cooperation not only across government agencies but also from tech platforms, the media, and civil society. With only weeks to go until Election Day, vigilance is critical. The threats are real, but so too is the opportunity to come together as a nation and safeguard the democratic process.