The Rise (and Rise) of UK Transnational Education

As the dust settles on another recruitment cycle it’s interesting to see how the UK transnational education (TNE) landscape is shifting and changing (and, in some cases, not changing at all).?

My own institution has seen solid growth in student recruitment volumes from its existing partner network this year (c.10%). Not surprisingly, brokering of new partnerships has proved tough (given the pandemic) but, as a result of this dynamic, the next 6-12 months is projected to be an exceptional period for introducing new partnerships. I suspect that this is a dynamic that pulls through the UK HE sector and is far from unique.

Of course, it’s important to look outward as well as inward, and a ‘deep dive’ assessment of UK TNE data (HESA data) conducted a few months ago reveals some interesting trends.

Macro Trends and Data

UK TNE provision grew by >10% between the 2018/19 and 2019/20 cycles (from 408,130 to 449,690 students). Growth is projected to increased by a similar factor in 2020/21, and I suspect may grow even more as UK and international institutions focus on TNE provision post-COVID.

China, Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong remain important UK TNE markets (as they have been for several years), but markets such as Sri Lanka, Egypt and Greece continue to rise in prominence, with Sri Lanka now the third largest UK TNE market.

Despite >85% of UK universities now delivering TNE in one form or another, much of the UK’s TNE student volume is concentrated among a relatively small number of providers. Three-quarters of all UK TNE students are studying programmes delivered by just 10% of UK universities.

The largest UK providers of TNE are; University of London, The Open University, Coventry, Nottingham, Liverpool, Greenwich, Heriot-Watt and Middlesex. London and Open University leveraging online/distance learning models, Nottingham and Heriot-Watt achieving exceptional volumes via branch campus delivery and Coventry, Greenwich and Liverpool positioning themselves as the sector’s powerhouses in franchise/validated TNE.

Franchised and Validated Modes of Delivery Continue to Grow

Franchised and validated delivery grew by >10% between the 2018/19 and 2019/20 cycles, and there’s no reason to suggest that this growth will not continue (or accelerate) post COVID.

Interpreting HESA data for the last six cycles (excluding all provision by Oxford Brookes) illustrates that >60% of all UK TNE students obtained their award via franchised or validated provision (in every cycle since 2014/15). This ratio has remained static for a long time, and will likely remain baked into the data for years to come.

A lot has been said over the last 12 months or so regarding the need to establish new TNE models and methods. This sentiment may be true to some extent, but the data strongly suggests that franchised and validated TNE provision (TNE perhaps in its most basic form) is here to stay, continues to grow at pace, and remains the engine-room of UK TNE.?

The cornerstone of such provision is (still) consumer-led, transactional TNE. Partnerships forged in countries where there’s a high volume of prospective students wishing to study a UK award that can’t travel to the UK to do so. Partnerships, of course, need to also deliver significant upside for UK institutions (in the form of student volumes and revenues) as well as their international partners (the ability to delivery UK awards, and to leverage the brand and reputation of a UK partner in order to achieve student volumes and revenues for themselves).?

Basic? Yes.

Broken? Absolutely not!

Despite whispers to the contrary the growth of TNE in its most basic form isn’t likely to slow-down anytime soon, and institutions that fail to recognise this, and strategise against the market trend, will be doing so at their own peril.

Branch Campus Delivery Continues to ‘Steadily’ Climb

The majority of students that were taught via a UK institution’s international branch campus can be accounted for in just three countries; Malaysia, UAE and China (plus one relatively small branch campus located in Hong Kong). It’s also true to say that branch campus delivery is dominated by just a handful of UK Universities; Nottingham, Heriot-Watt and Middlesex (and, to a lesser extent, Sunderland, Newcastle and Reading).

Growth in this mode of delivery appears to be strong, but largely organic, with well-established branch campuses attracting more students (as opposed to a large influx of new branch campuses). Perhaps this will change in the post-COVID era, as UK institutions face a post-COVID market.?

Online, Blended and Distance Learning Delivery

?It’s almost impossible to interpret this section of the HESA data with any great degree of certainty. Given the multiple models that reside within the data, it’s hard to tell which figures relate to simple online delivery and which relate to more sophisticated, partnership forms of delivery (which would be more akin to true partnership TNE).

What is clear is that University of London (51,140) dominates this space, accounting for some 63% of the student volumes listed within this category. Other UK universities perform well in this area, Salford, South Wales, Edinburgh, Heriot-Watt, Kent, Liverpool and Manchester especially.

But what’s most interesting in this set of sub-data is which countries feed these volumes. Many of the traditional UK TNE markets fall away when reviewing this data set, and markets such as; Cyprus, Pakistan, USA and Canada emerge strongly.

What Does the Future Hold?

?Over the coming years I’m sure that new models and approaches to TNE will indeed emerge, but I don’t think that this will be mutually exclusive to traditional/transaction TNE partnerships.

The emergence of online delivery more broadly across the sector is likely to see a consumer-led hunger for more forms of online and blended TNE. This is where I see the biggest growth occurring over the next decade, a model that will see UK institutions enabling their network of TNE partners to utilise their online courses in order to facilitate blended learning. This, I think, is what TNE 4.0 will ultimately prove to be.