The Rise of Quantum Computing: How It Will Revolutionise (and Threaten) Cybersecurity.

As we move deeper into 2024, quantum computing is fast becoming one of the most transformative technological developments, set to disrupt industries from finance to healthcare. With its potential to process vast amounts of data exponentially faster than classical computers, quantum computing is a double-edged sword for businesses. While it offers exciting new possibilities, it also poses a significant threat to cybersecurity—one that could dismantle the encryption methods relied upon across the UK and Europe.

What Exactly Is Quantum Computing?

Quantum computing leverages the principles of quantum mechanics to revolutionise how we process information. Traditional computers operate on binary bits, represented as either 0 or 1. Quantum computers, on the other hand, use qubits, which can exist in both 0 and 1 states simultaneously due to a phenomenon known as superposition. This enables quantum computers to perform many calculations at once, drastically increasing computational power.

Although quantum computing is still in its nascent stages, European institutions and businesses have already recognised its vast potential for innovation. However, this leap in computational capability also presents a significant cybersecurity challenge, particularly in the field of cryptography. In a world where data privacy is of the utmost importance, quantum computers may soon be able to break widely used encryption methods such as RSA and ECC.

Why Is Quantum Computing a Threat to Cybersecurity?

For decades, encryption has served as the backbone of data security. Algorithms like RSA and ECC (Elliptic Curve Cryptography) protect sensitive information by making it mathematically infeasible for classical computers to solve the problems they rely on—such as factoring large numbers or solving discrete logarithms—in any reasonable timeframe.

However, the advent of quantum computers threatens to undermine these algorithms entirely. Using quantum algorithms, such as Shor’s Algorithm, quantum computers can solve these complex problems in a fraction of the time it would take classical machines. A recent 2024 report from the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA) highlights that quantum computers could break RSA-based encryption in mere minutes, posing an existential threat to online banking, encrypted communications, and government security systems.

While we are still several years away from fully operational quantum computers, cybercriminals may already be stockpiling encrypted data today with the intention of decrypting it once quantum technology matures. As the EU continues to build its digital infrastructure, the looming threat of quantum decryption grows more serious.

The Timeline for Quantum Computing's Impact on Cybersecurity

Although large-scale, commercially available quantum computers are not yet a reality, the timeline for their development is shortening. Quantum initiatives in both the UK and the EU are pushing forward at a rapid pace, with clear milestones on the horizon. Here is a forecast of key developments over the coming years:

• 2024–2026: Quantum computing remains largely in the experimental phase, primarily limited to research institutions. In the UK, The University of Cambridge Quantum Computing Centre is at the forefront of quantum research, developing solutions that could transform multiple industries. Meanwhile, across Europe, the EU-funded Quantum Flagship Programme has earmarked €1 billion to advance quantum technologies, including quantum-safe encryption, by 2027.
• 2027–2029: During this period, mid-range quantum computers are expected to emerge, potentially capable of solving specific optimisation problems in industries such as finance and healthcare. As these machines become more sophisticated, businesses in Europe and the UK will begin adopting quantum-safe encryption to protect sensitive data from future quantum threats.
• 2030 and beyond: By this point, large-scale quantum computers with the ability to break current encryption standards are expected to enter commercial use. The European Union's Cybersecurity Act, alongside the UK National Cyber Strategy, will likely drive widespread adoption of post-quantum cryptography across industries. Businesses that fail to implement quantum-safe encryption may face catastrophic breaches, with critical infrastructure, financial systems, and personal data at risk.

The Urgent Need for Post-Quantum Cryptography

With the looming threat of quantum computers, both the UK and the EU are heavily investing in post-quantum cryptography—a new class of encryption algorithms designed to withstand attacks from both classical and quantum computers. The European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) has been working closely with European cybersecurity experts to develop standards for quantum-resistant encryption. These new algorithms are intended to replace RSA, ECC, and other vulnerable encryption methods before quantum computers become capable of exploiting their weaknesses.

At the same time, the UK Government is accelerating its efforts to protect national infrastructure and sensitive data from quantum threats. The UK Quantum Technologies Programme, which began in 2013, continues to collaborate with leading academic institutions and the private sector to ensure quantum-safe solutions are implemented across industries.

In 2024, the UK National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) recommended that organisations begin transitioning to quantum-safe cryptographic standards sooner rather than later. This shift is vital, particularly for businesses handling sensitive data that may still be vulnerable even years from now when quantum computing becomes more widely available.

Preparing Your Business for the Quantum Threat

Though the full impact of quantum computing may not be felt for several years, businesses across the UK and EU must act now to ensure they are prepared for this seismic shift in cybersecurity. Here are five crucial steps that organisations should take in 2024:

1. Conduct a Comprehensive Cyber Risk Assessment: The first step in preparing for the quantum era is to evaluate your current cybersecurity infrastructure. A thorough assessment will help identify vulnerabilities, especially in encryption methods, and pinpoint areas where immediate upgrades are needed.
2. Transition to Quantum-Safe Cryptography: The transition to quantum-safe cryptographic standards will take time, but it is crucial to start the process now. The European Commission’s Quantum Communication Infrastructure (QCI) initiative is already working on integrating quantum-resistant encryption into cross-border communications. Organisations should align their strategies with these efforts and explore early adoption of these new standards.
3. Adopt a Hybrid Approach: Until quantum-safe cryptography is fully standardised, many organisations are adopting a hybrid encryption strategy, combining traditional cryptography with quantum-resistant algorithms. This provides a layered approach to cybersecurity that can help bridge the gap between today’s encryption methods and tomorrow’s quantum-safe solutions.
4. Stay Informed on Quantum Developments: The quantum landscape is evolving rapidly. Businesses need to keep abreast of the latest research and developments in quantum technology and cybersecurity. Governments across the EU and the UK are funding research into quantum technologies, and staying informed on these advancements will be key to adapting your cybersecurity strategy.
5. Educate Employees and Stakeholders: As with any emerging threat, awareness is essential. Ensuring that employees and stakeholders are aware of the risks posed by quantum computing will help your organisation stay proactive and prepared. Training programmes focused on quantum-safe practices and encryption standards should become an integral part of your cybersecurity strategy.

Quantum News in 2024: Key Developments from the UK and Europe

Several key developments in 2024 have underscored the importance of quantum computing in shaping the future of cybersecurity:

• In January 2024, the University of Oxford partnered with the UK Government to accelerate the development of quantum-safe encryption technologies. This collaboration is part of a broader national effort to ensure that the UK remains at the forefront of quantum research and cybersecurity.
• The European Union Quantum Flagship Programme continues to make strides, with a commitment of €1 billion by 2027 to develop quantum technologies that can address cybersecurity challenges. The programme has also outlined plans to support industries transitioning to quantum-safe encryption standards.
• The UK National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), in collaboration with leading universities, has launched a new initiative aimed at preparing the financial sector for the transition to post-quantum cryptography, ensuring that sensitive banking and financial data remains secure in a quantum-powered world.

Conclusion: Preparing for the Quantum Future

Quantum computing is poised to revolutionise industries and bring unprecedented benefits to society. However, it also presents an existential challenge to the cybersecurity landscape, particularly in the UK and Europe, where encryption standards play a critical role in protecting sensitive data across industries.

Businesses cannot afford to wait until quantum computers become mainstream before taking action. By transitioning to quantum-safe encryption, adopting hybrid approaches, and staying informed about developments in quantum technology, organisations can safeguard their data and remain resilient in the face of this revolutionary shift in computing.