THE RISE OF PABLO MAR?AL: DIGITAL POPULISM AND THE CHALLENGES OF DEMOCRACY IN THE ERA OF THE ATTENTION ECONOMY

Pablo Mar?al’s rise in the political scene of S?o Paulo reveals complex and interconnected dynamics that transcend the local space and touch on fundamental questions about the nature of contemporary politics and its interactions with society. Mar?al, who initially stood out as a businessman and motivational coach, managed to reposition the electoral dispute in S?o Paulo, transforming it into a narrative that revolves around his figure and his simplified promises of solutions to complex problems. This simplification, although attractive to part of the electorate, is part of a broader context of distrust in institutions and appeals to populism.

The Mar?al Phenomenon and the Construction of Popularity

Mar?al’s campaign is marked by a communicative strategy that seeks to discredit his opponents through direct attacks, often below the belt. His speech is punctuated by factoids and short messages, which resonate with the feelings of moralism, work ethic and conservatism present in broad sectors of Brazilian society. These messages, although superficial, are effective in capturing public attention, especially on social media, where virality has become a central goal for populist politicians. Mar?al’s behavior, characterized by provocations, elevated speeches and the creation of often fictitious narratives, reflects a tactic already known in Brazil, where the politics of shouting has historically found fertile ground. The election of Jair Bolsonaro in 2018 is a clear example of how this approach can be successful, by using social media to amplify populist speeches that touch on sensitive and polarizing topics. Mar?al, in this sense, follows a similar line, but with one crucial difference: he already emerges as a finished product of the attention economy, a theory developed by Herbert Simon in the 1970s, which argues that, in a world of information abundance, attention becomes the scarcest and most valuable resource. Attention Economy and Contemporary Politics

In the attention economy, political success does not depend solely on consistent proposals or a solid ideological platform, but rather on the ability to capture and maintain the public’s attention. This phenomenon is amplified by social media, where algorithms prioritize content that generates engagement, often through scandals, aggressive speeches and polarization. Mar?al understands this dynamic and uses it masterfully, becoming, in many ways, an improved successor to figures like Olavo de Carvalho, who also exploited the networks to build a base of loyal followers.

Mar?al’s strategic use of social media, especially in the form of short, high-impact videos, has allowed him to build a robust digital community, where his followers produce and disseminate content in an almost autonomous way. This network of spontaneous content producers not only amplifies his message, but also contributes to the construction of an image of omnipresence and political relevance. According to a recent survey, cuts of Mar?al’s videos have already reached more than 57 million views, which demonstrates the effectiveness of this approach.

Radicalization and the New Brazilian Right

Mar?al positions himself as a figure of the new Brazilian right, a movement that is distinguished by an even greater radicalization than that seen in the Bolsonaro era. While Bolsonaro and Trump, despite their incendiary speeches, operated within certain institutional limits, Mar?al seems willing to go further, taking inspiration from figures such as Javier Milei, from Argentina, who advocate an almost total deregulation of the State and an even more aggressive rhetoric against the establishment. This radicalization, however, is not only a strategic choice, but also a response to the demands of an electorate that feels increasingly disillusioned and betrayed by unfulfilled promises of political renewal.

This new right, which Mar?al represents, capitalizes on legitimate feelings of frustration and disillusionment with the State. However, by transforming this pain into populism, he also simplifies complex issues, offering easy and often unfeasible solutions. Mar?al’s rise, in this context, is not just a local phenomenon, but part of a global movement that sees radicalization and polarization as the quickest paths to obtaining and maintaining power.

Electoral Dynamics and the Challenges for Democracy

The election in S?o Paulo, with Mar?al as one of the main figures, highlights the challenges that Brazilian democracy faces in times of hyperconnectivity and misinformation. Mar?al’s rise in the polls, rising from 11% to 16.3% in a short period, indicates that his message resonates with broad sectors of society, especially among those who feel disillusioned with traditional politics. On the other hand, the decline of Ricardo Nunes, who fell from 25% to 21.8%, signals a crisis of confidence in established leaders.

Mar?al is not competing directly with Guilherme Boulos, who appeals to a different electorate, but his main battle is with Nunes, and the possibility of a second round between them puts Mar?al in a dangerous position for democracy, since he has already proven himself capable of manipulating public discourse effectively and aggressively. If he advances to the second round, the race will become even more polarized, and the impact of his potential victory could be devastating, not only for S?o Paulo, but for Brazil as a whole.

Implications for Brazil’s Political Future

If Mar?al wins in S?o Paulo, he will position himself as a potential presidential candidate, challenging Bolsonaro’s leadership within the Brazilian right. His ability to mobilize social media and to construct a narrative that blends self-help, religion, and politics into a formula that appeals to the masses makes him a significant threat to the country’s political stability. Furthermore, his victory could mark the beginning of a new phase of aggressive and polarizing politics in Brazil, where radical discourse and the manipulation of the attention economy would become even more prevalent.

Final Thoughts

The political situation in S?o Paulo, reflected in the rise of Pablo Mar?al, is a microcosm of the challenges facing democracy around the world. The attention economy, combined with widespread disillusionment with institutions, creates fertile ground for the emergence of populist figures who use radicalization and polarization as tools for electoral success. Mar?al is in many ways a product of this environment, and his rise signals the urgent need to rethink how politics is practiced and perceived in the digital age. The example of the United States, where figures like Kamala Harris have explored new strategies to confront the far right, offers important lessons for Brazil. Ridicule as a way to disarm populist figures can be an effective tool, but greater efforts are also needed to rebuild trust in institutions and to promote healthier and more constructive political discourse. Ultimately, politics needs to be rescued from colonization by the attention economy, otherwise we risk seeing an even greater erosion of democracy and the social fabric.