A rise in longevity, a pushback on Huberman, will Peloton survive?

These are the trends that I expect to dominate the health, wellness and fitness industry in 2024

1. A focus on the growing mental health crisis.

As of 2017, at least 300 million people were struggling with depression, 284 million with anxiety, and more than 178 million with alcohol or drug addiction. And it’s gotten worse since the start of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Every year, 1.15 million people suffer from overdoses, suicide, and premature death due to these increased stressors.2

We’re already seeing a massive shift towards addressing this, I expect to see more companies - from startups, to employers, to legacy health care - make this a top priority in 2024.

2. Older millennials, starting to push back on societal norms, wanting more

Older millennials, specifically those with kids, are burnt out. And it makes sense. With many turning 40 in the next few years, they’ve lived through 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis, COVID-19, political and economic instability - and are now trying to raise their own families while managing a career, buy a home, and live a life that feels out of reach.

They’re one of the most educated generations but have also delayed many life milestones, such as buying a home, getting married, and starting a family.

But they’re also actively saying no, pushing the burden of life back on other, older generations.

I expect this demographic to lead a further pushback on societal norms - with smart brands leaning into the displays of rebellion that we’ll start to see from this generation.

3. A shift from performance to holistic health

2023 was the rise of longevity, with Peter Attila, Bryan Johnson & Andrew Huberman taking center stage. I expect this trend to continue in 2024, with an even further push towards holistic health.

My guess is that we’ll see a bigger push towards recovery, low-impact exercise, walking, sleep, and nutrition designed for long-term impact.

4. Pushback against the “Andrew Huberman” approach to health

That said, I expect a pullback from Huberman, Johnson, Attila & other newfound health influencers.

Andrew Huberman & team have done a fantastic job of bringing awareness to longevity & the mindset of different health approaches.

But I’m not convinced the average human needs an ice bath, an at-home sauna, or to participate in perineum sunning. And as their approach becomes more extreme, I’m expecting the average person to reject their position as they look for more manageable home health solutions.

While I still expect these tactics to be a part of the discussion - I am expecting a new wave of "Huberman Husbands” to be born that are looking for the benefits, without the massive investment (time & financial) that Huberman’s approaches require.

5. But still keeping a focus on longevity

One of the best concepts I’ve seen from Huberman, Peter Attila, Tony Robbins, Joe Rogan, etc is their ability to raise awareness of the concept of longevity.

And not the concept of living longer - but the concept of moving more, maintaining your own independence, managing mental health & having strong relationships.

6. More personalized fitness offerings, leveraging biomarkers & diagnostics

At-home testing & diagnostics broke in big in 2023. I expect this to grow significantly in 2024 and expect future improvements in wearables to make this go mainstream.

In a time when personal health is suffering - digital health companies have found ways of delivering improved care by leveraging personal data to deliver customized treatment plans.

We’ve seen this across the industry - personalized fitness plans, personalized nutrition, personalized vitamins, etc - all powered by metabolic blood work (Parsley Health, Inside Tracker), wearables (Whoop, Oura), & medical devices (Superhuman, Veri).

With Apple expected to add blood pressure, glucose and sleep apnea tracking to it’s accessible Apple Watch - I expect smart companies to be planning to integrate personalization into their product roadmaps now.

8. I expect Peloton to look materially different in 12 months

Down from a high of 162.72 / share in 2021, Peloton is barely hanging around in its current business model. They’re on their 4th CMO in 2 years, have swapped CEOs & continue to struggle to define their business model.

We’ve already seen a consolidation occur in connected fitness. Hydrow started the M&A consolidation in connected fitness by buying CityRow. We all saw Lululemon shut down Mirror. And the high valuations of 2021 aren’t coming back.

Peloton is going to have to do something - and I’m guessing that this is the year they become a content-first business, potentially being acquired by a content company (hello Netflix, Apple+, or Disney+). I don’t see Peloton continuing to operate as a standalone hardware-first business unless they make some drastic changes to their business model.

So what did I miss? Do you agree with these takes?

I’m Dan Goldstein, a Fractional CMO in the health, wellness & fitness industry. With nearly 20 years of experience, I’m now focused full-time on helping seed & series A companies unlock their growth.

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