The Rise of International Students in Canada - How we got here and what's next

International students in Canada increased from 620K in 2021 to over 1M in 2024. Over 50% of Canadians polled recently by Nanos and CTV felt there are too many international students.

How did we get here, who’s to blame and where do we go from here? Let’s enter the shoes of the different players.

Canadian Government

As the Canadian government, you know that Canadians live longer, are getting older and have less kids. The seniors (65+) population is growing 6x faster than the 0-14 population. More Canadians are leaving the workforce than entering it. Healthcare costs are rising and you need to protect the economy. Businesses complain that they can’t find the talent they need.

Immigration is key to replenish the workforce. You favour young, educated people with some work experience who are fluent in English and/or French. They’ll integrate better, strain our healthcare system less and pay taxes for another 3-4 decades. Students are prime candidates. You increase overall targets and collaborate with provinces, colleges and universities to attract more immigrants.

Ontario Government

As the Ontario government, you know higher education is key to a strong economy. Students complain about tuition fees. In 2019, you cut tuition fees by 10% for domestic students. You’ve kept it that way since people are still struggling to pay the bills. You cap domestic student headcount and the funding colleges and universities get for these students.

Colleges and universities complain that other provinces provide nearly 2x as much funding per student as you. This has largely been the reality for the last 4 decades. You tell them your hands are tied and they’ll have to figure it out. You focus on affordability and bringing businesses to Ontario.

Colleges & Universities

As an Ontario college/university, inflation has taken a toll and everything is more expensive. You have to let staff go or find more money. International students pay 3x-5x more than domestic students. You talk to peers and increase international student enrolment. It helps. Again the next year. Your staff could breathe again. You hear of the rich perspectives international students bring to class, like an MBA class. The other college attracted new talent, expanded programming and broke ground on a new building. You do the same.

Everyone seems happy. You periodically hear about bad landlords and difficulty in finding affordable housing. You feel for the students. Housing is tough these days. You’re not sure your own kids can afford to buy a house. You know all 3 levels of government are trying to create more housing. You hope that happens faster.

Everything seems stable until January 2024, when Marc Miller introduces a 35% reduction in study permits from 2023 levels. This is going back to 2021 levels and a lot has changed. He plans to keep it this way for 2 years. The provinces decide the allocation of study permits. A month later, Ontario allocates 96% of its study permit quota to public institutions like you. Phew. It also introduces $1.3B to be provided over 3 years. It doesn’t keep you whole, but it helps. You still can’t raise tuition fees for Ontario students though.

International Students

You were the second of four children. Your parents heard from an aunt that there’s an agent who can get you to Canada. The plan is to study for a year, work for a year, get a PR and then bring the rest of your family over. Your parents mortgage the farm to send you to Canada. Your family’s future rests on your shoulders.

You land here. Canadians seem nice - they open the door, don’t bud in line and say sorry when you accidentally step on their toe. Neither of you know why. You share an apartment with 6 others, similar to when your dad moved to the city in his 20s. You work 20 hours at a coffee shop serving impatient customers who complain the coffee isn’t hot enough. You do odd jobs for cash on the weekend.

In class, you gravitate towards classmates from your country. Over time, your jokes land better and you make friends with others - international and local. Some are well to do and will go back home to run the family business. Some are on a scholarship. Some, like you, are here for a PR. You appreciate the diversity and how you’re evolving. Your profs are great - they care, they engage and make you think.

You start planting roots in Canada. You graduate and start looking for work. Months in, no interviews. Your cousin at another college lands a good job. Apparently not all colleges and programs are treated equally by employers. You settle for a full time cashier job at the coffee shop.

You talk to an immigration lawyer. She says you need more points. Your cashier job doesn’t get you any points, it’s in the wrong “TEER”. You talk to your parents who talk to the agent. He says Canadian immigration is now more competitive, but don’t give up. He knows an employer who can hire you for a good “TEER” job, but you have to pay to get hired.

A year later, you pack your bags and go home disappointed. You have mixed feelings. You learned a lot and met some great people, but feel you’ve failed your mission. Maybe your younger sister would have had better luck. Maybe you should have chosen a different program or a different college. When you get home, you move to the city to make money for your family.

Canadian Citizens/Local Residents

Your parents came here as immigrants and started off in the back of a restaurant. You and your sister were born here. You studied hard, got married, got a good job, had kids and bought a house in the suburbs. You say sorry when someone steps on your toes. You are working on being less apologetic. Mortgages rates went up and groceries are expensive. You scaled back on vacation plans.

When a neighbouring family moves out, students move in. The students are nice and go unnoticed, but there are many of them. You see more students the next year and even more the year after. Your niece can’t get a summer job. It’s too competitive. Your friends can’t enter the housing market. Like you, they grew up here.

They grumble about too many immigrants, especially from their nationality. They say the new immigrants from their nationality bud in queues, speak their language in public and take low salaries. You remind yourself and them that this was your parents’ journey. They say it’s different this time around - it’s faster and more concentrated, they wont assimilate. They wouldn’t dare say this in public, but you hear this more and more in private circles. You wonder if they are right, but tell yourself this fear is as old as time. To you, Canada is a country where synagogues and mosques can share a parking lot. You want to keep it that way.

You hope interest rates go down and the economy gets better. And more homes are built, just not in your neighbourhood.

Who is to blame?

When we’re in an unhappy situation, it’s tempting to find someone to blame. I wish there was a villain. But often, like a good Pixar movie, there is no villain. Don’t bite the bait of single threaded narratives.

I’ll share my team’s thoughts on potential solutions next week. If you have some thoughts, comment below or DM me.