The Rio Trio: Previewing Three Upcoming COP Summits

This week’s header image is the biodiversity stripes. Similar to the climate stripes, it visually represents how biodiversity has collapsed in the last 50 years. Each line represents a year from 1970-2020 and shows the declining health of global biodiversity, which diminished by 73% during that time.

The biodiversity stripes were created to bring attention to the action needed to restore biodiversity and the importance of the Conference of the Parties to the UN’s Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD COP16), which starts on Monday (October 21st). This is the first biodiversity COP since global governments agreed to the Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework two years ago. The agreement involves halting and reversing biodiversity loss by 2030 by protecting and conserving 30% of every country's land and sea.?

COP16 was meant to be the forum where countries shared their National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs) on how they plan to achieve the goals of the Montreal Framework. However, only 25 of the 195 countries have submitted an NBSAP before the deadline, with more planning to reveal them next week.

COP16 is not the only COP happening in the coming months (using the name COP for all these important meetings is confusing!). In November, the more well-known climate COP29 will be held in Baku, Azerbaijan, and in December, another COP16, but for desertification, will be held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.?

COP29 has been dubbed ‘The Finance COP’ as this year’s event will focus on increasing the current $100 billion commitment for climate funding from developed nations to developing nations (the original pledge was met in 2022). Negotiations will be tough this year as developing nations need at least $500 billion annually to adapt to the effects of climate change. One method to mobilize finance?seems closer after a UN expert group reached a compromise on key elements of a global carbon trading system - an important tool for raising climate finance.?

This year’s United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) COP16 is expected to be the largest UN desertification event yet. It will focus on finding investment and accelerating action on drought resilience, land degradation, and desertification.

These three COPs are known as the Rio Conventions, which are meant to work harmoniously to help solve our interconnected environmental issues. This is the first year the three host nations have collaborated on these COP issues under a new “Rio Trio Initiative.”

These COPs are an important but imperfect process. A COP biodiversity target agreement has never been reached. It looks like the goals from the famous COP Paris Agreement are unlikely to be met, and we are way off meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).?

This record has led to calls for some to streamline and reform the COP process. However, others believe the inclusive yet flawed nature of COPs is essential as it is the only forum we have for global cooperation on climate, biodiversity, and SDG action.?

Election Table Stakes

The need for positive outcomes from this year’s Rio-trio of COPs couldn’t be higher. The political landscape of 2025 could be vastly different if the US votes in another Trump Administration in just over two weeks.? In that case, the US would leave the Paris Agreement again.

This NYT article does a good job of succinctly explaining each candidate's position. In summary, Trump’s plans would increase emissions to the equivalent of putting 1 billion new cars on the road. In contrast, Harris would continue or even accelerate Biden’s low-carbon energy transition.

To temper some of the impacts of a possible Republican win next month, California policymakers have been working to “Trump-proof” their world-leading climate policies by ensuring they come under state authority and preparing preemptive lawsuits. Under a provision of the 1970 Clean Air Act, the Environmental Protection Agency has given California a waiver to enact stricter environmental pollution regulations. Trump has said he plans to stop that waiver, saying, “California has imposed the most ridiculous car regulations,” referring to the state’s plans to ban the sale of gas-powered cars by 2035.

EU Maintains Gas-Powered Car Deadline

The EU is also preparing for a US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in the event of a Trump win, with plans to be much more assertive than they were in 2016. MEP Mohammed Chahim said, “Europe can and must become the guardian of the Paris Agreement.”

The EU elections did not reverse their “Green Deal” platform, and one of the more controversial policies - the ban on new gas-powered cars after 2035 - now looks like it will stick. EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra said Europe “cannot and should not roll back” the plan. Given the size of the market, this ban will have a global impact on the car industry.?

Some of Europe’s Green Deal rules are being modified to incorporate market feedback. A couple of weeks ago, a year's delay was proposed for the Deforestation Rule, which has now been accepted by the EU Council. This week,?the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) said it would update its name rule,?which defines the criteria for being labeled as “sustainable” or “climate” investment funds. The update comes after some investors claimed the new rules will limit energy transition financing.???

Uninsurable World

With Florida and other states cleaning up after back-to-back Hurricanes, the early estimates of insurance costs of Hurricane Milton came in at an eye-watering $36 billion. The combined cost to insurers of the two storms could max out at $55 billion, which may cause more insurance companies to leave the state, further pushing up premiums in a state where insurance costs are already the highest in the country.?

The increasing costs of climate change are forcing insurers to relook at their climate change investments. A new BlackRock survey found that 99% of insurers have set low carbon investing goals and that 57% put that down to increased climate risks.

Nuclear Renaissance Fueling AI

While AI is a powerful tool for predicting extreme weather, power-hungry AI servers are causing tech giants to go nuclear. This week, Google announced an agreement with Kairos Power to procure energy from nuclear small modular reactors (SMR). The first SMR will be online in 2030, and the agreement will eventually bring 500 MW of new carbon-free power. Similarly, Amazon has invested in US nuclear developer X-energy to build SMRs for low-carbon energy for its data centers. Amazon and X-energy plan to bring 5GW of nuclear power online by 2039.

Despite the press on increased energy use from AI, a new report from the International Energy Agency says that AI energy use will pale in comparison to other energy needs. The report finds that AI will make up less than 10% of new electricity needs, with much more coming from EV adoption and increased use of air conditioning.?

The views expressed on this website/weblog are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer.?

Other Notable News:

• Exxon Mobil sued the Dutch government last week for what could be a multi-billion-dollar compensation claim. The lawsuit comes after the Dutch government shut down the largest gas field in Europe, run by Exxon, when it was linked to earthquakes in 2018.
• This article from the FT highlights a growing call within the sustainability field for shifting business sustainability from being driven by a few well-intentioned CEOs to broader, market-driven regulatory change. Experts argue that action at the market level, rather than by individual companies, is key to driving meaningful progress.
• In a Supreme Court victory,? EPA won its case to limit emissions from power plants.?
• Babcock Ranch in Florida, a community designed to withstand hurricanes, weathered Hurricane Helene and Milton and even protected an additional 2,000 people.?
• A new analysis finds that the Global South is implementing clean tech at a faster rate than the Global North.
• This excellent Fortune article from Priya Parrish, the chief investment officer at Impact Engine, explains why ESG investing is expected to hit $50 trillion in assets under management by 2030 despite the ESG backlash.
• A new US survey finds that the majority of Americans don’t know what ESG is, but when they are informed about what it is, they are, by and large, supportive.?
• More than half of the world’s food production could be at risk in the next 25 years unless we take urgent action to improve water security.?
• Is ‘green-hindering’ the new greenwashing? Green-hindering is when companies normalize or glorify unsustainable practices such as promoting single-use plastic use or fast fashion.

Notable Podcasts:?

• In this week’s episode of Outrage and Optimism, the hosts look ahead to the upcoming “Rio Trio” of COPs. They look at the history of the COP process conceived at the Earth Summit in Rio in 1992, how they have evolved over time, and the future of the conferences.?
• In this week’s episode of the BBC’s The Climate Question, presenter John Dunbar goes to Georgia to ask voters in the swing state whether climate issues feature high in their decision on who to vote for. The episode looks at how candidates speak about climate and whether voters are considering climate disasters and clean tech investment when making their votes.

Notable Jobs:

• Senior Associate, Client Solutions, Re:Co Insights, London, UK
• Senior Associate, Climate & Nature, J. Crew, New York, Hybrid
• Sustainability Account Executive, Watch Wire by Tango, Dallas, TX, Hybrid
• Decarbonization/Sustainability Consultant, Ramboll, San Francisco, CA
• Sustainability Programs ManagerSustainability Programs Manager, RE Tech Advisors, Dallas TX, Hybrid
• Environmental Justice Associate, Carbon Direct, Remote
• Sustainability Platform Analyst, Postion Green, Buffalo, New York