Rinse and Repeat: Decision Making in a Crisis

I think one of the most important traits of any great leader is the ability to make decisions and act on them. Indecision is often the enemy of progress—it is the easiest way to make sure nothing gets done. Or that whatever does get done isn’t your fault because you never actually came to a conclusion or acted on it. We have all worked with, and probably for, people like this. It’s frustrating. Organizationally debilitating. And proof that just because you have received a title, doesn’t mean you’ve earned it or earned the respect of your team. But decisive action does. Even if it’s wrong. As long as you admit it and make another decision to try something else. Because the truth is, we are forced to make decisions based on imperfect or incomplete information all the time.

Back when the COVID-19 crisis started, I was fortunate enough to attend the first of a series of Harvard Business School (HBS) webinars offered to HBS alumni around the world. More than 1,800 of my fellow alumni dialed in to hear what my former professor and current HBS Dean, Nitin Nohria, and his colleagues, Professors Dutch Leonard and Bob Kaplan, had to say about managing in times like these. The management frameworks they shared were fantastic. But I was specifically struck by the fact this was just one more amazing example of leadership I’ve witnessed exhibited by teachers and educators at all levels during these trying times. That was a lesson in and of itself.

Of course, I had a few other takeaways from this online session that I thought important to share.

First off, there is no playbook for leading a company during COVID-19. Professor Leonard reminded us that crisis leadership is when you find yourself in a situation where no existing playbook exists for knowing exactly what to do. It’s on you. We can execute existing playbooks and contingency plans all we want—which is smart—but there’s no chapter for this. You are writing the playbook as you go. People are looking to you for direction. And as a leader, you have to figure it out, in real time and under stress. “This is what crisis leadership is, and the way you have been feeling is how it feels,” said Professor Leonard.

The temporary nature of the crisis was also discussed. But “temporary” doesn’t have an exact time frame. I don’t think any of us thought it would take this long to get back to normal, yet here we are. However, the fact it will last for an unknown period of time makes planning and leading even more challenging. It’s hard to see the end goal. And yet, we were told to embrace that uncertainty. You are as likely to be right as wrong, so do what you think is best. Work the plan. Keep making decisions. And act.

Along the same lines, Professor Leonard advised that there are no precooked answers so we must resist the pressure to provide quick ones. We should focus on the decision-making process. Activate the best process you can with the best people on your team. Recognize you don’t fully understand the situation and that it will continue to change. And while many of your answers and decisions might turn out to be wrong, trust yourself and your team and keep working toward a solution, given all you’ve learned.

Ultimately, Professor Leonard suggested we engage in a defined problem-solving process he summed up as follows:

1)     Establish goals and priorities (and make sure they align with your values)

2)     Understand the situation

3)     Develop options

4)     Predict outcomes for each option

5)     Choose the best course of action

6)     Execute

7)     Rinse and repeat

Professor Kaplan (one of the creators of the famous Balanced Scorecard) shared another decision-making framework called the OODA loop. It’s a technique developed by United States Air Force Colonel John Boyd to help demonstrate how individuals and teams can win in constantly changing environments. The OODA loop provides for decision making to occur in a rapidly recurring cycle: observe, orient, decide, and act. Sound familiar? If you’ve been leading on any level over the last five months, it certainly should.

So, what’s The Point? It’s this.

None of us have been here before, but it’s times like these that test your mettle as a leader. Every day has brought something new. Another challenge. Another angle to consider. Our teams have adapted, but there’s more to come. There are benefits to some of the ways we’ve learned to work that should get incorporated into future plans. But there’s still no playbook. There’s just information to process. And if you want to be a true leader, you need to take that information in, make the best decision you can, and act with eyes wide open to see what the next set of circumstances are. And do it again.

Or as Professor Leonard suggested, rinse and repeat.