The right way to roll the dice

“There is no right way to roll the dice.”

- Dr. Chris Ryan, author of Sex at Dawn

The human brain has been highly tuned to find cause an effect, to attribute one thing happening to another thing happening. But we tend to over-attribute some things and under-attribute others. One area where this misattribution is particularly relevant is success.

Ask yourself for a moment: "Why am I successful?"

Hardwork?  Yup.

Talent?  Yessir.

Luck?  mmmmm....I don’t know.. maybe a little. 

In the first half hour of a recent EconTalk, Robert Frank and Russ Roberts discuss luck, success, and how & why we "underestimate the role that luck plays in our success.” It’s worth a listen. (The second half of the podcast discusses Frank’s proposed policy changes and where he and Russ agree/disagree - also interesting.)

As Dr. Chris Ryan explains in a recent rant the way to get a "swimmer’s body” is to be born with one. Yes, hard work in the pool and discipline with your diet will bring your body fat down, but it won’t make your arms & legs longer or your chest & shoulders broader. Fortune has already determined much of that for you.

He similarly argues that much of Tim Ferriss’ (author of The 4 Hour Workweek, The 4 Hour Body, and The 4 Hour Chef) success can be attributed to his good fortune too. Yes, Tim has worked hard and has many talents, but he’s also been the receiver of luck. But Chris Ryan believes that too much of Tim's success is attributed to the methods outlined in The 4 Hour Workweek and not enough has been attributed to his fortunate lot in life.

For what it's worth: Tim's brush with Lyme Disease was rather unlucky in my opinion.

O fortune, fortune! All men call thee fickle.
- Juliet Capulet

Chances are high that if you’re reading this, you have access to the internet, which probably means that you have adequate access to food, water, shelter, and life-saving medicines. Our lives may not always be easy, but we are the beneficiaries of good luck.

So if you’ve been looking for the "secret to success" and haven't found your answer in a guru's book [??] yet, then I hope you'll consider the role that luck plays in all of our lives. Of course, some hard work and talent never seem to hurt either.

If you acknowledge that chance plays a meaningful role in our lives, then the real question is: how do we best play the game to take advantage of the good luck in our lives and minimize the bad? Is there a right way to roll the dice?