Rig and FPSO moves spotlight new oil & gas discoveries as projects move forward
Offshore Energy Today
Offshore Energy - Fossil Energy: Home of Energy Transition ?? Connecting energy security with sustainable solutions ??
While the energy mix has gradually changed and evolved, sometimes even at a snail's pace, over the centuries, these days the world tends to enjoy a variety of supply sources, but fossil fuels still run the show. As winter season approaches in the Northern Hemisphere with the winter solstice just around the corner, summer strides forward in the Southern Hemisphere. Yet despite interhemispheric temperature differences, with the Northern Hemisphere tending to experience more extreme weather variations, the need for energy to power daily lives is a common denominator across the globe. This is hammered home by the constant search to augment and shore up supplies to bolster countries' energy security while remaining on the lookout for new decarbonization technologies and energy efficiency measures. Over the past week, mature basins have shown their promise of more hydrocarbons to come, as exploration efforts led to new oil and gas discoveries. Projects under development are drawing closer to the finish line or crossing it, as progress blazes new trails, leaving fresh milestones in its wake.
As the wheel of the energy industry's fate keeps turning, fortune still seems to favor some sources of supply over others, despite attempts to leave them in the ground and pivot toward greener alternatives. Extracting new oil and gas is problematized in some countries more than in others, with emissions from burning fossil fuels now being required to be taken into consideration when deciding on new projects in countries like the UK. However, the world at large still runs on coal, oil, and gas, with the lion's share of the energy mix controlled by these fuels.
The global energy crisis that befell the world in 2022 forced Europe to diversify its supplies to tackle the gas crunch threatening to wreak havoc on its energy security ecosystem, putting new safeguards in place to battle the all-time high energy prices. The world, and Europe in particular, is not out of the woods yet, as the energy market's balance is still believed to be precarious, sometimes standing on a knife's edge that could tip either way at any minute.
While strides have been made in curbing inflation, gas prices have not gone back to their pre-2022 levels due to rising geopolitical tensions, growing demand in Asia-Pacific, and warm weather. While it is hard to predict which, if any, of the energy scenarios being run on a loop will come to pass, shifts in the global LNG market's arena are bound to have an impact on Europe. Will the U.S. unleash a new LNG boom under the administration of President-elect, Donald Trump, or will the challenges in the fossil fuel sphere prove to be too much to handle over the course of 20255 and beyond?
?Canada's 'unrealistic' zero-carbon electricity generation plans ??
While the Canadian government is targetting carbon-free electricity generation over the next decade, Elmira Aliakbari, Director of Natural Resource Studies at the Fraser Institute, claims that the institute's recent study shows such a goal to be "very costly" and "entirely unrealistic."
According to Aliakbari, 81% of Canada’s electricity comes from carbon-free sources already and these entail hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar, but replacing the remaining 19% of fossil-fuel-generated electricity is estimated to require building 23 large hydroelectric dams or more than 4 nuclear power plants similar in size to Ontario’s Darlington station, or around 11,000 large wind turbines, which would require substantial investments in back-up power systems as wind is intermittent and clearing 7,302 square kilometers of land, said to be larger than the size of Prince Edward Island.
Aliakbari elaborated: "To put this into context, BC’s one single Site C dam took over 50 years from planning to near completion with a cost of $16 billion. It is not at all realistic that this scale of energy infrastructure can be planned, approved, financed, and built in just 10 years. The federal government has also mandated that 60% of new light-duty vehicles sold in Canada must be zero-emission by 2030, increasing to 100% by 2035. Our research indicates that this rapid shift to EVs will put enormous pressure on our already strained electricity grid.
"In 2023, EVs accounted for just 10.8% of new vehicle sales in Canada. To meet the 2035 target, EV sales would need to increase nearly tenfold, which would drive up electricity demand. Recent events, like power shortages in Alberta and import needs in BC and Manitoba, show that we are already facing electricity challenges today. The future addition of EVs and the transition to intermittent renewable sources, such as wind and solar, will further exacerbate these challenges."
?? Uncertainty and 'resilient' oil & gas to run the energy show in 2025??
While disclosing its views on the state of global energy markets in 2025, S&P Global Commodity Insights highlighted in its '2025 Energy Outlook' that a high degree of uncertainty was enveloping the energy markets far more strongly than any other year since COVID-19 exited the stage.
This veil of uncertainty is bolstered by the ongoing geopolitical challenges, including the Ukraine and Gaza crises, and continuing rivalry between the U.S. and China, which is working on "leveraging its leading position in clean technology for greater global influence, while the US and Europe enhance tariffs to protect domestic industry," based on S&P Global's predictions that emphasize the fossil fuel market's "resilient" status in the face of growing climate action momentum, as the oil and gas sector keeps adapting to changing conditions.
Based on this energy outlook, the election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency fuels further uncertainty in geopolitics and puts a question mark on U.S. participation in the Paris Agreement and the UN Conference of Parties (COP) process. In addition, it also problematizes U.S. foreign policy and energy objectives.
Dave Ernsberger, Co-President of S&P Global Commodity Insights, underlined: "There are emerging technological and fundamental trends that will clearly have an impact on markets over the coming year, although how significant their impact will be is uncertain."
Moreover, S&P Global's energy outlook spotlights the rapid growth of artificial intelligence as an acceleration driver of power demand for data centers, with the potential boom in electricity demand already reviving interest in nuclear power. However, it is uncertain whether a nuclear renaissance will come to pass, regardless of the backing from big technology corporations.
Mark Eramo, Co-President, S&P Global Commodity Insights, explained: "Fossil fuel prices in 2025 will be shaped by how markets adjust to growing supply and generally soft demand growth."
Given that OPEC+ has disclosed aspirations to bring supply back to the market, after delaying its plan to unwind production cuts three times, S&P Global points out that it is uncertain whether the region will be able to bring any supply back in 2025 without pushing crude prices below $70 per barrel (/b).
Along these lines, the next wave of North American LNG supply is set to start hitting the market in 2025. While this is expected to weaken global LNG prices, it is also anticipated to boost U.S. gas prices, even though the timing of project completion and the degree of producer foresight to increase supply ahead of the surge are set to determine the relative impact.
??Ten key energy themes to watch in 2025???
?? Upheaval in U.S. energy playground and its impacts: S&P Global is convinced that Trump's second term will have large impacts on overall energy policy and multiple markets, thus, it expects a scene shift to a very different path for energy and climate policy than the four-year Biden presidency. The firm's insights indicate that the second Trump administration will likely look to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, rescind and redraft existing vehicle emission regulations, weaken methane regulations, and curb support for electric vehicle (EV) adoption. Aside from these, the company anticipates that the Trump administration will grant export approvals to all pending LNG export projects which could support final investment decisions in H2 2025.
"While a complete repeal of the Biden administration's signature Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is unlikely given Senate filibuster rules, the Republican Congressional majority can and likely will leverage the budget reconciliation process to at least repeal parts of the IRA," S&P Global added.
Given Trump's deviation from Biden's worldview, the forecasted change in U.S. foreign policy is also likely to shake the energy markets up, with the ongoing conflicts in Russia/Ukraine and the Middle East playing a prominent role in this alongside the tightening sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
"President-elect Trump has pledged to implement and raise tariffs on imports from several countries, but China in particular, which, if implemented, would have outsized influence on the US, Chinese, and global economy. The first Trump administration proved to be unpredictable, and market players will need to be nimble when the second Trump administration begins in January," S&P Global warned.
?? Emissions on the rise with energy demand set to outstrip clean energy supply: The energy outlook for the upcoming year pinpoints the development of sufficient green energy to meet rising demand and displace existing fossil fuel one to reverse carbon emisisons' growth in the energy sector.
"Aside from the pandemic and other significant economic recessions, there has never been a year in which clean energy supply (wind, solar, hydro, other renewables and nuclear) growth exceeded total demand growth, resulting in a reduction in fossil fuel use. Making matters even more challenging is that total primary energy demand has been growing above trend since the pandemic and growth will remain robust in 2025," S&P Global warned.
While primary energy demand increased on average by 5.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) between 2000-2019, S&P Global Commodity Insights projects that primary energy demand will rise by 9 million boe/d in 2024, growing by more than 8 million boe/d in 2025. Even though clean energy is perceived to be growing faster than ever, this is not yet considered fast enough to curtail the fossil fuel demand, let alone displace existing coal, oil, and gas consumption.
"Demand for fossil fuels is expected to increase by more than 3 million boe/d in 2025, and CO2 emissions associated with fossil fuel combustion will reach a new record high, although it will be the smallest increase since the pandemic," based on the energy outlook.
?? Artificial intelligence and datacenters to usher in new electricity consumption era: S&P Global predicts that an acceleration of AI adoption and datacenters expansion will fundamentally alter the trajectory of global power demand, which will grow between 10-15% per year between now and 2030 for datacenters, enabling them to account for up to 5% of total global power demand by 2030.
Datacenters are estimated to represent a shift to 2%-3% growth in the developed economies of North America, Europe, and Asia, where power demand has been flat or has even fallen in recent years, while in developing economies, incremental datacenter demand is expected to add to already robust electricity demand growth. The growth in both scenarios is said to offer challenges to electricity grids as new datacenter projects require two to three years from inception to commercial launch, with new power supply taking four to five years or more and transmission projects even longer.
"While large technology companies have led the way in terms of clean energy procurement to feed their datacenters, oftentimes this syphons clean power away from the grid at large. This may require additional gas-fired generation capacity to be built, or to keep aging coal-fired generation capacity online longer than originally planned," S&P Global emphasized.
?? Nuclear energy comeback makes the cut once again: Nuclear energy, which has shown signs of gaining traction in energy markets, especially in North America, as "a reliable, stable, and carbon free source of electricity," is increasingly being contemplated as an option to meet growing electricity demand as companies try to decarbonize their portfolio, as illustrated by Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, with signed power purchase agreements in 2024 totaling more than 3 gigawatts tied to nuclear capacity to help feed growing demand from datacenters.
Although 2024 saw the first new large-scale nuclear plant commissioned in North America since the mid-1990s with the startup of the Vogtle plant in Georgia, many point to the cost of more than $36 billion for the two new units to underline that nuclear power remains an outsider for significant consideration in terms of new capacity additions to support the energy transition in North America, despite China continuing to grow nuclear capacity significantly.
"Some interest from big technology companies in securing nuclear energy has been geared toward the development of small modular reactors (SMRs). While this technology is still fairly nascent and will not impact energy balances over the next year, the level of interest and development of SMRs in 2025 will be a key indicator of the likelihood and potential magnitude of a nuclear renaissance," specified the energy outlook.
?? Clean technology race prompts China to step up its game as the West taps the brakes: China is portrayed as the largest producer and consumer of electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels, wind turbines, and green hydrogen electrolyzers with the deployment of clean energy technology remaining on the growth path.
On the other hand, the deployment of clean technologies is portrayed as facing considerable headwinds in the West due to pledges from U.S. President-elect Trump to roll back subsidy provisions in the IRA, and already-reduced subsidies in parts of Europe.
"The bankruptcy of Northvolt in November 2024 is the latest example of a Western cleantech company unable to compete with low-cost Chinese equipment. In both the US and Europe, policymakers are utilizing tariffs on Chinese clean technologies, particularly electric vehicles, to protect their domestic industries. Limiting access to price-competitive Chinese-made clean technology equipment increases the risks that the US and Europe will fall even farther behind China and slow emissions reduction progress," S&P Global said.
The company states that China is leveraging its cleantech industry to slash its fossil fuel demand, particularly for imported fossil fuels. The Asian country's rapid growth of renewables generation is seen as limiting the growth of domestic coal and natural gas demand, and its 200+ GW per year of solar panel exports is having a similar deflationary impact on fossil fuel demand elsewhere. Next year is expected to be highlighted by an even greater degree of polarization of clean technology between China and the West.
?? Peak gasoline head-to-head with new refining capacity: S&P Global claims that global gasoline demand will peak in 2025, as EV adoption and gasoline vehicle efficiency gains finally catch up to economic and population-driven demand growth, notably in developing nations.
The firm underscored: "At odds with this demand peak is notable refining capacity additions, including the high gasoline yielding Dangote refinery in Nigeria that is projected to fully stream in 2025. The Dangote refinery, the largest in Africa, is expected to shift gasoline trade flows as it adds to capacity additions in Mexico and the Middle East. The imbalance is expected to pressure margins and result in accelerated rationalization of refining capacity, especially in the Eastern US and Europe but also in China and other markets. These dynamics could impact crude markets and the crude slate of the shuttered refineries, which could well be heavier than the expected crude intake at Dangote."
?? OPEC+ caught between a rock and a hard place: S&P Global claims that OPEC+ has been in a difficult position for several years to achieve its objectives of moderately high prices and increased production volumes. Thanks to strong oil production growth in the Americas, primarily the U.S., but also Canada, Guyana, and Brazil, and decelerating oil demand growth, OPEC+ has cut oil supply four times since 2022, only to see prices continue to weaken.
In early June, OPEC+ decided to begin a year-long process of gradually raising production that would start in October 2024, attempting to bring back supply without overly deflating prices – a theme S&P Global named "thread the needle."
Come September 2024, OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee adjusted the timeline, delaying the increase to December. In early November, OPEC+ decided to again postpone the increase in production to January 2025. On December 5, OPEC+ once again delayed the unwinding of production cuts, this time by an additional three months. In the firm's r view, OPEC+ will find it difficult to increase supply in 2025 without notably weighing on prices since non-OPEC production growth is expected to be greater than total global oil demand growth.
?? Next wave of LNG exports could rock the U.S. domestic gas market boat: The energy outlook notes that the global LNG market is poised for significant change in 2025 after two years of relatively limited growth, as total trade grew only 10 million metric tons (3%) relative to 2022 levels by 2024. The next major wave of supply starts in 2025 and will be kicked off with the new liquefaction capacity coming online in North America.
Nearly 90% of the 27 million metric tons of new supply expected in 2025 is expected from North America with facilities such as Corpus Christi Stage 3, Plaquemines LNG, LNG Canada, and Costa Azul LNG all expected to speed up throughout 2025. The uptick in exports is perceived to leave a significant strain on the domestic U.S. natural gas market while feedgas demand picks up faster than production can respond.
"This is likely to pull inventories back into a relative deficit compared to five-year average levels throughout most of the year and put upward pressure on cash prices across the country, although higher prices are expected especially in the Gulf Coast of the US. Feedgas demand is expected to grow by 5.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) -- nearly 39% -- from October 2024 to December 2025, putting particular strain on the domestic US market heading into the winter 2025-2026. Henry Hub is expected to average more than $4.00 per million metric British Thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025 after two years averaging below $3.00/MMBtu. However, the impact of the LNG surge is not expected to put downward pressure on global gas prices until 2026," noted S&P Global.
?? Coal consumption may but probably will not start to go down: While renewables installations consistently hit new record levels, global coal demand has continued to grow, hitting new records in both 2023 and 2024, even in China, where wind and solar installations have been around 300 GW in both 2023 and 2024, coal-fired generation has hit new record highs in both years. Strong electricity load growth, aided by rapidly expanding power demand for datacenters and EV charging said to have surpassed the tremendous growth in renewables, increasing the call on fossil fuels.
S&P Global Commodity Insights expects that Chinese renewable installations will slow slightly, but remain well above 250 GW, and coal-fired generation in China will once again be higher year-on-year and hit a new record. In several other developing economies, the outlook shows that coal demand will continue to grow in 2025, most notably in India, where the growth in renewables supply is dwarfed by growth in electricity demand. The data also shows that despite more than a decade of consistent declines, coal demand in the U.S. is expected to rebound significantly in 2025.
"Heightened US LNG exports will pull on domestic natural gas supply, and push prices higher, which should spur some gas-to-coal switching. As China represents nearly 60% of global coal consumption, if coal demand in China indeed grows again, demand in developing nations remains on its upward trajectory, and demand in the US temporarily rebounds, it is highly likely that global coal demand will once again paint a new record higher, even if demand in Europe and other developed economies contracts in 2025," underlined S&P Global.
?? COP as an opportunity to boost emission cuts: A new COP will begin in November 2025, returning to Brazil for the first time since the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was established at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992. The negotiators at COP30 will be tasked with strengthening emissions pledges known as nationally determined contributions or NDCs. S&P Global predicts that most developed economies, including the United States, will miss their current NDCs for 2030, with President-elect Trump expected to remove the United States from the Paris Agreement once again.
"Target-setting for COP30 should not be interpreted primarily as a guide to the future trajectory of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but as a barometer for the viability of the UNFCCC, and an indicator for the relevance of climate change within the wider evolving context of global geopolitics. China's GHG emissions are expected to peak around 2025, so a new and challenging NDC – cutting emissions in absolute terms – could position the country as a climate leader not only for emerging economies, but for the whole world, filling a void left by a retreating US and an EU that are struggling to meet even its own ambitions," the outlook emphasized.
S&P Global is adamant that a lack of ambition on new targets will redouble questions over the viability of the COP process, pushing climate down the list of countries' strategic priorities.
Dan Klein, Head of Future Energy Pathways, S&P Global Commodity Insights, hammered this home by noting: "How governments, companies, and consumers react to uncertainty and emerging trends will be crucial for 2025 outcomes and will also serve as a key signpost for the success of the energy transition and meeting decarbonization goals."
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? Equinor has run into shallow gas during drilling operations with an Odfjell Drilling -owned semi-submersible rig at a well in the Norwegian Sea.
? Thanks to drilling operations undertaken with Odfjell Drilling 's rig, Equinor found more oil and gas in a North Sea area with previous commercial discoveries, thus, a tie-back development option to existing infrastructure is on the cards to combine these recent hydrocarbon discoveries offshore Norway.
? Constellation Oil Services 's drillship has been hired by Petrobras on a long-term gig offshore Brazil.
? Transocean drillship's work offshore India has been prolonged.
? Seadrill 's new long-term deal off the coast of Brazil will enable its drillship to continue working for Petrobras .
? Ventura Offshore got a hold of a multi-well drillship contract with Petrobras for drilling activities at two oil fields in Brazilian waters.
? Noble Corporation has won a new drilling campaign off the coast of Ghana.
? Shelf Drilling has agreed to sell a jack-up rig, which recently got a suspension of operations in the Middle East.
? Equinor had no luck finding oil and gas in two wells drilled by one of Odfjell Drilling ’s rigs in the Norwegian North Sea.
? Dolphin Drilling has revealed a positive outcome of arbitration proceedings with Lagos-based General Hydrocarbons Limited (GHL).
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? SBM Offshore 's new FPSO has departed from a Chinese shipyard to start its voyage to Brazil, where it will be deployed at Petrobras ' giant oil field in the pre-salt layer of the Santos Basin, off the coast of Brazil.
? Talos Energy has embarked on a sale of a further stake in its subsidiary, which has an interest in a large oil field off the coast of Mexico, to a subsidiary of Grupo Carso conglomerate.
? With the 15th sanctions package against Russia in effect, the European Council will be intent on a further curtailment of ‘shadow’ fleet activities with 52 new vessels added to the list, as the EU works on curbing sanctions’ circumvention.
? 雪佛龙 's fresh long-term sale and purchase agreement (SPA) with Alcoa of Australia to provide natural gas from its Western Australian assets.
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? Petrobras recently inked multiple deals for the construction and chartering of platform supply vessels (PSVs) with more anticipated to follow suit.
? 壳牌 has greenlighted the development of a deepwater oil and gas project offshore Nigeria. The multibillion-dollar project will be brought online as a subsea tie-back to an existing FPSO.
? After disclosing a final investment decision for its project offshore Nigeria, Shell picked subsea production systems for the deepwater oil and gas project.
? 必维国际检验集团 has given Wison New Energies approval in principle (AiP) for the front-end engineering and design (FEED) of the Chinese player's standardized FPSO unit.
? EnQuest and its partners in a production sharing contract (PSC) for acreage offshore Malaysia recently struck a deal with PETRONAS in a bid to bring forth more gas resources at a field within their PSC.
? Helix Energy Solutions Group 's semi-submersible vessel has come to Namibia’s Port of Walvis Bay to gear up for its next offshore decommissioning job with Shell in Brazil.
? Woodside Energy and 雪佛龙 have embarked on a deal to exchange interests in core areas of operations and focus on strategic within oil, gas, liquified natural gas, and carbon capture and storage assets in Western Australia.
? Allseas is engrossed in planning and preparation work for its next offshore decommissioning assignment in Australia, which will entail the removal of up to 12 retired platforms.
? BRAVA Energia and PetroReconcavo have ironed out the conditions for the latter’s purchase of the former's natural gas outflow and processing infrastructure in Brazil’s Potiguar Basin, part of the Equatorial Margin.
? Saipem , in a consortium with KOA Oil & Gas Limited and Aveon Offshore Limited has won an offshore deal with 壳牌 for a deepwater oil and gas project offshore Nigeria.
? OKEA ASA and DNO ASA have made arrangements to swap stakes in two prospects offshore Norway, which are on the drilling lists of rigs owned by Odfjell Drilling and Transocean , respectively.
? SBM Offshore has sold another FPSO to 埃克森美孚 , enabling the U.S. oil major to take into its fold the third unit off the coast of Guyana.
? Mermaid Subsea Services (UK) Ltd has completed the plug and abandonment (P&A) of 30 wells in the UK sector of the North Sea this year.
? TotalEnergies has changed its timeline for achieving the full production capacity from all fields at its gas redevelopment project in the North Sea off the coast of Denmark.
? Woodside Energy has made inroads in decommissioning operations at a field offshore Western Australia, with Heerema Marine Contractors ’ heavy lift vessel transporting a riser turret mooring (RTM) to Australian Marine Complex for recycling preparations.
? Canada’s Trillion Energy International Inc. is preparing to resume activities at a gas field off the coast of Türkiye after weather-induced delays.
? BRAVA Energia has inked natural gas supply contracts with two firms.
? BRAVA Energia has received a confirmation from Petrobras about the termination of its acquisition of oil and gas fields and associated infrastructure off the coast of Brazil, as a precedent condition was not satisfied.
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? Boskalis has finished its scope of work for a big multibillion-dollar gas project offshore Western Australia, which is expected to complete its first liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo in 2026.
? ADNOC Group has inked a gas deal with Germany’s EnBW in relation to its lower-carbon Ruwais LNG project.
? Golar LNG has sold an LNG carrier, which was supposed to undergo conversion works at Seatrium 's yard to turn into a floating LNG (FLNG) unit.
? Wison New Energies has penned a front-end engineering and design deal with Nigeria’s Ace Gas Conversions Pvt Ltd and FLNG for a proposed project that consists of a floating liquefied natural gas unit and a power barge off the coast of the West African country.
? 雪佛龙 has secured a deal with Energy Transfer for the delivery of LNG volumes from an export project under development on Louisiana’s Gulf Coast.
? Woodside Energy has made progress in developing its huge gas project offshore Western Australia, with the arrival of the final modules out of 51 required to bring the Pluto Train 2 to life in Karratha.
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? A new research from the Global Underwater Hub (GUH) points out that the UK’s underwater industry saw ￡1.2 billion growth, rising to ￡9.2 billion from ￡8 billion during the previous year. As a result, GUH has urged the UK government to set forth an industrial strategy to bolster investor confidence.
? Fugro has been put on ground investigation duty off the coast of Belgium in relation to a new CO2 highway developed by Equinor to transport CO2 between mainland Europe and Norway.
? One of the salient points made at the Offshore Energy Exhibition and Conference (OEEC) 2024 concerns carbon capture and storage (CCS), which is anticipated to lend a helping hand not only in bridging the gap between carbon-intensive fuels and their carbon-free counterparts but also between supply chains, workers' skills, and trust issues surrounding developing technologies like CCS. This decarbonization tool, which some fear would lock in fossil fuels use for decades to come, is said to be here to stay for the long haul, according to participants at this OEEC session, which pinpointed regulations, licensing, supply chain, and trust as keys to unlocking the full potential CCS has to offer.
? Perenco and Carbon Catalyst Limited are putting the remaining pieces in place to undertake a CO2 injection test at a carbon capture and storage license in the North Sea, spanning a gas field said to be the UK’s largest depleted one.
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1 个月??/how are you my friend..have good times/ I’m an energy conversion/electro mechanical engineer ????♂? & I’m looking for a job..thank you if you help ??????