Rig Count(US + Canada) - Insight on Trend & Forecasts
Rig Count for US + Canada region closely follows the trend of the Crude Oil Price(WTI) as depicted in the graph here. It is evident that there is a natural lag of usually 2-4 months between rig count peak/trough w.r.t Oil price trend. Per Baker Hughes' latest data, current Rig count is 796 which is showing an upward trend after oil price crash in 2020 due to pandemic.
Rotary rig count has recently seen its all-time-bottom in July'2020 when its number went down to 287 only. Maximum Rig count in recent times was 2,696 in Feb'2012. Noteworthy point is all-time-maximum rig count was recorded as 4,781 way back in Dec'1981 (not shown in this graph here).
Time-Series forecasts using exponential smoothing model provides a good prediction for oil industry showing Rig count going up to 2,000 by end of year 2023. There are, however, many factors which could impact the future trend which includes demand/supply gap, geographic/political/demographic factors, energy transitions etc. I'm keen to know more on this from industry SMEs. Please provide your insights and opinions by leaving a comment here.
Data Source:
https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/
https://www.eia.gov/
Principal Engineer - Energy
2 年Thanks for sharing
Sr. Structural Designer
2 年Very informative!! Though the Rig count climbed, Oil production is still far below pre pandemic levels as many companies focus on returning money to investors than boosting out put. Keeping the oil prices at high! But as always looking at good sight increase in “Oil Rigs count” consumes more products and services that keeps other areas of industry moving. ??
Ship Management-Marine Surveys-Shipping Decarbonization
2 年insightful