Riding the perfect storm of Lee and the warm waters of climate change.

Introduction.

As I write this, my friends and family are preparing for Hurricane Lee. Given my warm relationship with Atlantic Canada, my geekish interest in the weather, and my recent work on physical climate risk, I am again wondering why hurricanes are becoming more powerful and what we can do to protect our communities.

Expected Impact of Tropical Storm Lee.

Tropical Storm Lee, which is currently wreaking havoc on the East Coast of the United States and Canada, serves as a stark reminder of the real-world consequences of climate change. Here is what they can expect.

1. Flooding and Heavy Rainfall: Lee is expected to bring torrential rains to the affected areas, causing flash flooding and inundating communities. Climate change-induced increases in atmospheric moisture can contribute to more intense rainfall during storms.
2. Strong Winds and Power Outages: The storm's powerful winds have the potential to knock down full-leaf trees and bring down power lines, potentially leaving thousands of people without power.
3. Coastal Erosion: The impact of Lee may include coastal erosion, which threatens homes, coastal infrastructure such as harbours and docks, and delicate ecosystems.

The Cold Reality of Warmer Oceans.

In recent years, there has been a notable increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms around the world. This has led many people to question the role of climate change in these weather phenomena.

At the heart of this question is the fundamental principle that hurricanes draw their energy from warm ocean waters. As a result, the warmer the water, the more energy hurricanes can absorb and release, which makes them more intense.

Rising global temperatures, caused by climate change, have heated the world's oceans, providing hurricanes with a potent energy source. This increase in sea surface temperatures has led to stronger and more destructive storms. However, the warming of the oceans is not the only way that climate change is affecting hurricanes.

The melting of the polar ice caps and glaciers has contributed to rising sea levels, which can exacerbate storm surges and cause more extensive flooding and damage when hurricanes make landfall. Higher sea levels can also increase the overall severity of hurricanes by creating stronger and more frequent storm surges, which can lead to more damage and loss of life.

Climate change can also lead to shifts in atmospheric patterns, which can influence the behaviour of hurricanes. Some regions may experience more frequent storms, while others may see a change in the typical hurricane track. These changes can make it difficult for forecasters to accurately predict the path and intensity of hurricanes, putting coastal communities at greater risk.

Other factors, such as wind shear and the presence of dry air in the atmosphere, can also influence the development and growth of hurricanes. Additionally, some scientists suggest that climate change may lead to an increase in the number of "rapid intensification" events, where a storm rapidly strengthens over a short period. This can make it difficult for forecasters to predict a storm's strength and trajectory, putting coastal communities at greater risk with less time to prepare.

The Cost of Hurricanes

The cost of hurricanes can have devastating effects on homes, coastal infrastructure, and delicate ecosystems. These natural disasters have been responsible for causing billions of dollars in insured damages across the globe, with the Insurance Bureau of Canada reporting $3.1 billion worth of insured damage in 2022 alone.?

These numbers highlight the urgent need for immediate action to address the effects of climate change and invest in resilient infrastructure, early warning systems, and disaster preparedness to minimize the impacts of future storms. This is particularly important in the face of the projected increase in the frequency and severity of hurricanes due to global warming.

In the US, of the 363 billion-dollar weather disasters since 1980 (as of August 2023), tropical cyclones (or hurricanes) have caused the most damage: over $1.3 trillion in total, with an average cost of $22.8 billion per event. They are also responsible for the highest number of deaths: 6,890 since 1980.

1. Hurricane Fiona (September 2022): For instance, Hurricane Fiona, a natural disaster that occurred in 2020, caused extensive damage and affected the lives of millions of people. The hurricane brought strong winds, heavy rain, and massive flooding, which led to the destruction of houses, buildings, and infrastructure. The estimated cost of the damage was a staggering $800 million, deeply affecting the region's economy. Despite the efforts of emergency responders and volunteers, the recovery process was slow and challenging due to the widespread destruction. The hurricane serves as a reminder of the importance of disaster preparedness and the need for continued efforts to mitigate the impact of natural disasters on communities.
2. Hurricane Juan (September 2003): Hurricane Juan struck Halifax, Nova Scotia, in September 2003 and caused widespread destruction. The hurricane was the worst to hit Halifax since 1893, causing widespread power outages and flooding. Many homes and businesses were severely damaged, and the city's infrastructure was severely impacted. The government declared a state of emergency, and relief efforts were launched to help those affected by the storm. The storm resulted in eight fatalities and caused over CA $300 million (US $200 million) in damage, making it one of the costliest hurricanes in Canadian history.
3. Hurricane Harvey (August 2017): Harvey was the most significant tropical cyclone rainfall event ever recorded in U.S. history, both in scope and peak rainfall amounts. The highest storm total rainfall report from Harvey was 60.58 inches. Before Hurricanes Irma and Maria, Harvey became the deadliest U.S. hurricane in terms of direct deaths since Sandy (2012) and the deadliest hurricane to hit Texas since 1919. It was the first Category 4 hurricane to make landfall in Texas since 1961, and the first Category 4 to make landfall in the U.S. since 2004. Harvey lasted 117 hours, beating the previous record for the duration of Hurricane Fern in 1971.
4. Hurricane Irma (September 2017): With maximum winds of 185 miles per hour, Irma became the strongest storm on record to exist in the Atlantic Ocean outside of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. It sustained those maximum wind speeds for 37 hours and spent three consecutive days as a category 5 hurricane—making it the longest of any cyclone in the world since 1932 to maintain that intensity. The occurrences of Harvey and Irma—making landfall within two weeks of each other—were the first time in recorded history that two category 4 or higher hurricanes struck the U.S. mainland in the same year.
5. Hurricane Maria (September 2017): Maria was the first Category 5 hurricane ever to make landfall in Dominica, and the strongest hurricane to make landfall in Puerto Rico since 1928. It was the deadliest of 2017’s three major storms, with over 2,900 fatalities.

Adaptation and action

The actions we take now can significantly reduce the impact of these natural disasters, protecting our homes, infrastructure, and ecosystems from the devastating effects of hurricanes, while also reducing the financial burden on our societies.

1. Storm Surge Coverage: For people living in coastal areas, storm surge insurance coverage should be considered. Storm surge, which includes rising water levels and waves caused by storms, presents a significant flood risk, especially in coastal regions where extreme weather patterns have intensified due to the changing climate.
2. Sump Pumps: A high-volume battery-powered sump pump is a good investment for areas prone to heavy rainfall or flooding.
3. Invest in Resilience: Communities in hurricane-prone areas should continue to invest in resilient infrastructure, early warning systems, and disaster preparedness to minimize the impacts of future storms.?
4. Protect Coastal Ecosystems: Conserving and restoring coastal ecosystems, such as marshes and dunes, can help buffer the impacts of storm surges and erosion.
5. Global Cooperation: Global cooperation is essential to addressing the root causes of hurricane intensification. Countries must work together to meet climate goals and reduce the risk of extreme weather events. As Tropical Storm Lee reminds us of the immediate and devastating impacts of hurricanes, we must redouble our efforts to combat climate change and adapt to its effects.
6. Mitigate Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Urgent action is needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Transitioning to renewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency, and implementing carbon-reduction policies are critical.
7. International Collaboration: Global cooperation is essential to addressing the root causes of hurricane intensification. Countries must work together to meet climate goals and reduce the risk of extreme weather events.

Conclusion

I hope that my friends in Atlantic Canada weather the storm, as they have in the past.?

In the meantime, we need to acknowledge that the link between climate change and increased hurricanes is undeniable, and the ongoing impact of Tropical Storm Lee on the East Coast of the United States and Canada serves as a stark reminder of this connection. As our planet continues to warm, the threat of more frequent and intense hurricanes becomes a reality that we must confront.

By taking decisive action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, investing in resilience and adaptation, and protecting vulnerable ecosystems, we can work toward a future where hurricanes no longer wreak havoc on our communities and environment.?The time to act is now, for the sake of our friends, our families, the planet, and future generations.