Rider in the storm: Tracing India’s growth in a volatile world

There are three reasons why CRISIL expects India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to decelerate 100 basis points to 6% in fiscal 2024 from 7% in this fiscal.

One, a slowing world — stemming from elevated inflation and aggressive rate hikes by major central banks — will create downside risks to India’s growth. Domestic demand, therefore, will have to do the heavy lifting next fiscal.

Two, the full impact of rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will manifest next fiscal. Monetary moves typically impact growth with a lag of 3-4 quarters.

Three, the tricky geopolitical situation implies that India will continue to reckon with volatility in crude and commodity prices.

?But some optimism is in order on the domestic inflation front. Consumer inflation is expected to moderate to 5% next fiscal from 6.8% this fiscal, owing to a high-base effect. A good rabi harvest would help cool food inflation and a slowing economy to moderate core inflation.The risks to this are, however, tilted upwards, given the ongoing heat wave and the World Meteorological Organization’s prediction that an El Ni?o warming event is likely in the next couple of months. That can hurt farm output.

The picture, however, is better over the medium term. Download the report to learn more.

Global economy: Hint of a better turn

Despite headwinds, global GDP growth forecast for 2023 was revised from 2.7% to 2.9%, signaling that the expected global recession will not be as severe as previously feared. Read more about the economic outlook.

Global institutional investing: Top Trends in Institutional Asset Management for 2023

Institutional investors and asset managers in 2023 are facing a host of challenges and changes in a market that is evolving rapidly. Coalition Greenwich examines the top trends impacting institutional asset management in 2023. Understand more on the influential trends, covered in the report.

India aviation sector: Air passenger traffic to log double-digit growth next fiscal

Air passenger traffic in FY24 will be buoyed by a pick-up in international and business travel, capacity expansion and more aircrafts coming into the global fleet. Access key insights on air passenger traffic.

Global BFSI sector: Corporate Banks and Corporate Treasury: A Valuable Partnership for ESG

70% of institutions globally say that a clearly articulated sense of purpose that aligns with their own beliefs is a critical factor in manager selection. Learn more about the challenges faced by large companies in the United States, Europe and Asia.

Explore More:

Our Events | Our Insights | Our Blogs | Our Podcasts | Join our Team