Rice Exports, MLCF Bid, DISCOs Adjustment, Punjab AQI & Schools, EV Policy & MoU, China Exports.

TOPLINE

• Pakistan’s rice exports, which reached $4 billion last year, are expected to drop by $1.1 billion in FY 2024-2025, worsening the trade imbalance amid rising imports, as India renewed previously stalled rice exports. Last year’s surge in rice exports helped offset declines in textile revenues.
• Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF) has offered Rs 39 per share in a public bid to acquire a 37.86% stake in Agritech Limited, totaling 160.76 million shares. This bid, announced via the Pakistan Stock Exchange, outbids Fauji Fertilizer.
• DISCOs have requested a 48 paisa/unit tariff adjustment to recover Rs 8.718 billion for the first quarter of FY 2024-25, mainly covering Rs 8.065 billion in capacity charges.
• In response to hazardous air quality, the Punjab government has announced the closure of public and private educational institutions in 18 districts from Nov 7 to 17. This decision follows a significant rise in the Air Quality Index (AQI), which reached an alarming 1,165 in Lahore on Wednesday morning.
• The government will reveal its Electric Vehicle (EV) Policy by November's end, aiming to boost EV adoption. Pakistan State Oil (PSO) and Hub Power Holdings Limited (HPHL) have signed an MoU to create a nationwide electric vehicle (EV) charging network.
• China’s exports surged 12.7% year-on-year in October, reaching $309.06 billion, the highest increase in 19 months, driven by improved weather, price discounts, and the pre-Christmas peak season. This significantly exceeded analysts' 5.2% growth estimate. However, imports fell 2.3%, worse than the expected 1.5% drop.

AGRI-UPDATES - COMMODITIES, POLICY & DEVELOPMENTS

• Daily Rates: Find the following rates on the hyperlinked titles: [Shipping Intelligence], [Pakistan Stock Exchange], [Kibor International Kibor Rates], [BRIndex100 & BR Sectoral Indices], [Activities of Karachi Port Trust, Port Qasim]
• High Prices Persist Despite Lower Costs: Despite reduced import costs, a stable exchange rate, and lower transport expenses, Pakistanis continue to face high prices for pulses and chicken due to weak price monitoring. Finance Minister Aurangzeb, leading the ECC, rebuffed claims that import restrictions were solely to blame, emphasizing persistent issues in the planning ministry's oversight. [ET]
• Pakistan Pushes Nestle to Double Export Goal: The Pakistani government has urged Nestle Pakistan to raise its export target to $100 million over the next six years, doubling the company's planned goal of $50 million by 2030. Nestle Pakistan, currently exporting to 26 countries with $23 million in earnings for 2024, was commended by the Industries Minister for its potential to expand further due to its global reach. [ET]
• Maple Leaf Outbids Fauji for Agritech Stake: Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF) has offered Rs 39 per share in a public bid to acquire a 37.86% stake in Agritech Limited, totaling 160.76 million shares. This bid, announced via the Pakistan Stock Exchange, outbids Fauji Fertilizer, with Next Capital Limited advising MLCF on the acquisition under the Securities Act, 2015. [PT]
• Pakistan's Rice Exports to Fall by $1.1B: Pakistan’s rice exports, which reached $4 billion last year, are expected to drop by $1.1 billion in FY 2024-2025, worsening the trade imbalance amid rising imports, especially in agriculture and food. Last year’s surge in rice exports helped offset declines in textile revenues. [BR]
• IRADA Advocates Tobacco Harm Reduction: IRADA's fourth roundtable in Karachi focused on advancing Tobacco Harm Reduction (THR) as a public health strategy in Pakistan. It gathered health officials, medical professionals, NGOs, media, and community members to raise awareness and promote science-backed strategies for encouraging smokers to switch to less harmful alternatives. [BR]
• CM Launches 'Livestock Card' for Farmers: Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz announced the launch of the 'Livestock Card' for farmers on December 15. The scheme will benefit 80,000 farmers, providing interest-free loans of up to Rs 270,000 for cattle, along with access to essential livestock products. Registration is open at veterinary hospitals. [Dawn]

ENERGY - WEATHER, WATER & POWER

• AIIB Eyes Pakistan Investments: The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) expressed interest in future investments in Pakistan's energy transmission sector. During a meeting with Federal Minister Ahad Khan Cheema, AIIB also discussed the potential financing of the Sukkur-Hyderabad section of the Karachi-Peshawar Motorway. [BR]
• Discos Seek 48 Paisa Tariff Hike for FY 2024-25: Discos have requested a 48 paisa/unit tariff adjustment to recover Rs 8.718 billion for the first quarter of FY 2024-25, mainly covering Rs 8.065 billion in capacity charges. Nepra will hold a public hearing on the petition, filed by CPPA-G, on November 20, 2024. [BR] [Dawn] [ET]
• Senate Committee Questions IPP Tariffs & Audits: The Senate Standing Committee on Power discussed major issues with IPP tariffs, including missing technology studies and tests. Chair Mohsin Aziz raised concerns over the lack of details on IPPs' rate of return, heat rate, and audits, and questioned the future of remaining IPPs after five contracts were terminated. [ET]
• PM Announces Power & Fund for Gilgit-Baltistan: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced 100 MW of power for Gilgit-Baltistan and a Rs 1 billion endowment fund for students at Baltistan and Karakorum universities. He also praised the completion of the Bubar Model Village for flood victims and instructed development of educational and power facilities in Ghizer district. [BR] [Dawn]
• Govt Allocates Rs 50B for Sindh Housing: The federal government has approved the transfer of Rs 50 billion to Sindh for its emergency housing project, following a proposal from the Ministry of Planning. This decision, made by the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC), revises the initial Rs 30 billion allocation for the project under the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) for FY 2024-25. [ET]
• SM Tanveer Urges Winter Package for Industries: SM Tanveer of UBG urged the government to announce a winter package for industries, excluding conditions on incremental electricity consumption, to support economic stability and employment. He highlighted that industries without gas connections should not be unfairly excluded. [ET]
• Senate Committee Warns of Deforestation Near Rawal Dam: The Standing Committee on Climate Change, led by Senator Sherry Rehman, raised concerns over deforestation and unauthorized construction near Rawal Dam in Islamabad's Margalla National Park. They discussed efforts by CDA and Wasa to recharge the dam, which supplies water to the capital. [ET]
• Punjab Closes Schools Due to Hazardous Air Quality: In response to hazardous air quality, the Punjab government has announced the closure of public and private educational institutions in 18 districts from Nov 7 to 17. This decision follows a significant rise in the Air Quality Index (AQI), which reached an alarming 1,165 in Lahore on Wednesday morning, with the city's AQI staying in the hazardous range throughout the day. [Dawn]

PAKISTAN - ECONOMICS, POLITICS & SECURITY

• PM Sends Delegation for $2.8B Deals: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has dispatched a delegation, led by Minister Sardar Awais Khan Leghari, to Saudi Arabia to finalize $2.8 billion worth of MoUs and resolve K-Electric's issues. The number of MoUs increased from 27 to 34, raising the projected investment from $2.2 billion to $2.8 billion. [BR]
• IMF Staff to Visit Pakistan for EFF Discussions: The IMF staff, led by Nathan Porter, will visit Pakistan from November 11-15 to discuss recent developments and the performance of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme. This visit is not part of the first review under the $7 billion EFF, which is expected in the first quarter of 2025. [BR]
• Silk Bank Board Approves Potential Merger with UBL: Silk Bank's Board of Directors has given in-principle approval for a potential merger with United Bank Limited (UBL). The merger, proposed under a scheme of arrangement, requires approval from the State Bank of Pakistan and other regulatory bodies, with UBL offering a share exchange ratio of one new UBL share for every 325 Silk Bank shares. [PT]
• Govt to Unveil EV Policy by November End: The government will reveal its Electric Vehicle (EV) Policy by November's end, aiming to boost EV adoption. Minister Rana Tanveer Hussain noted local manufacturers are producing electric two- and three-wheelers, with $4 billion allocated to support the sector, including subsidies for electric two-wheelers. [PT]
• PSO, HPHL Partner for EV Charging Network: Pakistan State Oil (PSO) and Hub Power Holdings Limited (HPHL) have signed an MoU to create a nationwide electric vehicle (EV) charging network, advancing Pakistan's green energy infrastructure. This partnership aims to transition the country toward EVs, reducing reliance on fluctuating fuel prices. [MG]

INTERNATIONAL - MARKET, POLITICS, SECURITY & DEVELOPMENT

• Israeli Genocide: Israeli strikes on Lebanon killed at least 38 people near Baalbek in the Bekaa Valley on Wednesday, with additional strikes hitting Beirut's southern suburbs. The exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated since late September, with Israel intensifying bombing in southern and eastern Lebanon. Around 40 strikes in the Baalbek-Hermel governorate also wounded 54 people, according to regional governor Bachir Khodr. [Dawn]
• Trump Wins US Presidency in Comeback Victory: Donald Trump secured a nonconsecutive second term with 291 electoral votes, defeating Kamala Harris with 223 votes and leading her by over 5 million in the popular vote. Despite a polarizing campaign, two assassination attempts, and Harris' late candidacy after Biden's withdrawal, Trump emerged victorious. His win is expected to challenge both domestic democratic institutions and international relations, with Harris conceding later in the day. [Dawn] [Dawn] [ET] [ET]
• Opium Cultivation in Afghanistan Rises 19%: Opium cultivation in Afghanistan increased by 19% this year, despite a Taliban ban aimed at nearly eradicating the crop. A UNODC survey revealed that 12,800 hectares of poppies are now cultivated, with 80% of the population reliant on agriculture. This rise is still much lower than the 232,000 hectares cultivated before the Taliban imposed the ban in April 2022. [Dawn] [ET]
• China's Exports Surge 12.7% in October: China’s exports surged 12.7% year-on-year in October, reaching $309.06 billion, the highest increase in 19 months, driven by improved weather, price discounts, and the pre-Christmas peak season. This significantly exceeded analysts' 5.2% growth estimate. However, imports fell 2.3%, worse than the expected 1.5% drop. Despite domestic challenges, exports remain a key bright spot for China’s economy. [CNBC]
• UN Chief to Visit Iran for Nuclear Talks: UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi announced plans to visit Iran to discuss its nuclear program, expressing hopes for cooperation with US president-elect Donald Trump. Prior to the US election, Tehran showed signs of re-engaging with European nations to revive talks and seek relief from US sanctions. [Dawn]
• ECB Warns of Weaker Growth, Trade War Risks: ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos cautioned that eurozone growth may be weaker than anticipated, with new trade barriers potentially leading to a damaging cycle of trade wars. He also expressed concern over Trump's possible return to the White House, as his proposed higher tariffs could harm Europe. [BR]
• Wall Street Hits Record Highs After Trump's Victory: Wall Street surged to record highs, with the Dow up 3%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising 2%, following Donald Trump's stunning comeback victory over Kamala Harris. The rally was driven by expectations that Trump's business-friendly policies, including tax cuts, would face less resistance after Democrats lost control of the Senate. Additionally, the dollar and bitcoin hit new peaks. [Dawn]
• Russia Meets Oil Output Target of 9M BPD: Russia has met its oil output target of 9 million barrels per day, as committed under the OPEC+ agreement, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. This quota, effective from June through the end of the year, is aimed at stabilizing global oil markets, which are crucial for Russia's economy. [BR]

OPINION(S) & REMAINDERS

• Govt Fast-Tracks Islamabad IT Park Development: The government, under Minister Ahsan Iqbal, is fast-tracking the development of Islamabad's Information Technology Park to position it as a regional IT hub. The $88 million project, funded by Pakistan's PSDP and a $76 million loan from the Korean EXIM Bank, will include office spaces, a startup incubation center, R&D labs, and a Tier III data center. [ET]
• MSCI Adds 8 Pakistani Stocks to Frontier Market Index: MSCI's November 2024 index review added eight Pakistani securities to the Frontier Market Small Cap Index, including Citi Pharma, Crescent Steel & Allied, and TRG Pakistan, while removing Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim. The changes, effective November 25, 2024, bring Pakistan's total stocks in the MSCI Frontier Market Index to 21. [MG]
• Opinion: Climate Risk – Is Climate Action Enough? - “Despite Pakistan’s diminutive contribution to global emissions at present as well as historically, Pakistan is the 5th most vulnerable country to the climate change as per Global Climate Risk Index by the Germanwatch. These events are already occurring as Pakistan has started suffering with more frequent and intense climate disasters such as five floods during 2010-2014 have resulted in monetary losses of over US$ 18 billion with 38.12 million people affected, 3.45 million houses damaged and 10.63 million acres of crops destroyed.” - By Sabahat Ulain [BR]
• Opinion: Negotiating Climate Finance - “The main components of how COP29 plans to tackle climate finance include: i) the establishment of a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance, ii) enhanced commitments from countries through updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and iii) the operationalisation of effective mechanisms for the Loss & Damage Fund (LDF). All three have particular significance for Pakistan.” - By Ali Tauqeer Sheikh [Dawn]
• Opinion: COP29 - A Fizzling Climate Summit? - “With devastating climate disasters on the rise and record-high greenhouse gas emissions, the upcoming COP29 presents a crucial opportunity to accelerate global climate action. Scheduled to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan from November 11 to 22, 2024, the summit will prioritize increasing climate finance for vulnerable nations and communities. It also serves as a platform for world leaders to reinforce their national climate pledges and fulfill past commitments” - By Mirza Mujtaba Baig [ET]