Revolution 2.0 and the last mile to go

Introduction

Since the 17th of December 2010, date of the revolution, Tunisia went through different periods all characterized by a permanent political crisis, due to the absence of a common vision and a clear strategy to get a smooth democratic transition. The foggy situation, and the lack of the laws that should have accompanied the new 2014 constitution, besides the non-consensus on implementing the constitutional court, led to a difficult socio-economic situation. That situation was deepened by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the poor crisis management by the government. That resulted in changes in governments, disruptions in constitutional institutions, increased terrorist threats and impact on the political representations at the Parliament. The main results of this decade were a non-satisfied angry population, increase of personal interests at the political class, the widespread of corruption, and increased violence.

With different influences, the change in the political scene was shocking at certain times, with a deep instability and the continuity of what was known by the “democratic political parties”. Some political parties found themselves completely out of the scene, with the sustainability of Ennahdha political party and the emergence of rapid formed political parties such as Nidaa Tounes and Qalb Tounes. Also, the leftwing political parties, after having internal issues, related to future visions and strategic goals, lost their influence by a very poor representation at the Parliament. Meanwhile, the emergence on Addoustouri Al Horr, representing the old regime, could influence the decision-making process and destabilize the flow of work at the Parliament. Even within the Parliament, the political tourism, one of the main issues, could change the power balances and impact the decisions and votes on specific laws.

Many political parties consider that the Parliament came to its end, and it could no more be trusted. The interactions inside the Parliament led to a very bad image especially from the general population. And calls to dissolve that institutions were recorded on many occasions, especially whenever the President meets citizens.

The light signals of the social explosion and the non-acceptance of the current political system were visible since a year now. The middle class, also called the silent majority, was the main igniter of the movement of the 25th of July. What we saw especially in Sfax and Sousse, two main cities in country, was a clear demonstration of the reality. It showed clearly how the population became fed up with the current status and their will to make the change. The different circumstances cited above helped the President, who was waiting for the right moment and the required conditions, to make a courageous decision, or a coup as some consider it, to freeze the political system and push for the new reality. It is highly believed that this decision saved the country from a dangerous tournament that could lead to increased violence and may be the chaotic state.

An alarmingly low turnout during the 2019 elections

Participation of citizens in the elections represent the barometer of the success of the political parties to develop the required citizen awareness and their influence in the public opinion. During the 2019 presidential elections, the voter turnout was alarming at 45.02% in the first round, lower than the 2014 elections by 17.88%. Similarly, the attendance in the legislative elections dropped by 16.4%, with a rate of 41.3%.

The main reason for this low participation of citizens in the election, is the lack in trust in the political figures in the country, and the non-satisfaction by their performance during the previous eight years.

A divided parliament

The parliamentary election resulted in a fragmented and divided parliament. Ennahda secured the highest position by 52 seats with 19.5 % of the vote. Following Ennahda the Qalb Tunes, a new formed political party, got 38 seats with 14.5% of the vote, the Democratic Current Party got 22 seats, another three parties each got between 16 to 21 seats each and the ruling prime minister’ party Tahya Tounes (also a new formed political party) got 14 seats. Along with the seven main parties, another five parties each got between three to four seats each and the remaining 21 seats have been allocated to the other parties and independent candidates as one to two seats each.

The Nidaa Tunes got only three seats, securing the 10th position, though it got 86 seats in 2014’s election. The Popular Front got one seat, and Afek Tounes got two seats, while the Free Patriotic Union (UPL) didn’t get any seats. The total number of these four parties of the ruling coalition government was 125 in 2014’s election, while this decreased to six seats in this election.

The secularist parties lost their popularity, being also hurt by internal division, being blamed for the current crises, especially the economy and high unemployment.

Now if we analyze the results of Ennahda, the voter percentage decreased compared to the 2014 and 2011 elections, but it retained a large number of seats in parliament.

The parliamentary election results led to a divided parliament, where no party can secure an absolute majority, and the need for coalition to form a government is the only solution.

A coalition based on personal interests

Following the results of the parliamentary election, an obligatory coalition is now the main issue. It is a complex task to make an effective coalition in this situation where the majority party needs the support of three or more other parties to ensure a majority in parliament.

Ennahda, Qalb Tounes, Itilef Al Karama and Tahya Tounes, along with some other independent deputies, could manage to get along together to try to form a new government based on their common vision.

Another factor to be taken in consideration, is the effective cooperation with elected President Kais Saied, who was elected by almost 03 million voters, which represent the double of all the voters for all the political parties. ?The population could find in their elected president someone to trust, as they no longer have confidence on the political system, that couldn’t satisfy their demands.

A first failure to form the government

Following the legislative elections in 2019, Ennahdha political party, first winner of the elections with 52 seats, designated Mr Habib Jemli to form the government. After two months of a back and forth and consultations with the different political parties and national organizations, the designated candidate for the Presidency of the Government decided to present an independent government, because he couldn’t find a consensus between the different components of the political scene and noticed fragmented visions and a non will to serve the country, having their personal interests first.

Unfortunately, the government of Habib Jemli could not gather the necessary 109 seats, and he considered that Ennahdha, the political party that proposed him in that position, decided not to support him at the very last minute.

The power is returned to the President to the Republic

According to the 2014 constitution, if the winner in the legislative elections failed to form a government within two months after the results, the President of the Republic designates the Prime Minister in consultation with the political parties.

As Kais Saied had a different vision from the political parties, and was a real independent, he sent in written to all the components of the Parliament to give him their propositions for the new Prime Minister. Most of the political parties thought that the President will choose someone that was proposed by more than one political party, as a couple of them agreed on some names, willing to get back the power and dominate the political game. But the President chose Ilyes Fakhfakh, a former Minister of Finance, who belongs to Ettakattol political party, that didn’t win any seat in the elections. The President was looking for someone who doesn’t accept to be a toy in the hands of some political parties or businessmen, he wanted someone who goes along with his will to fight corruption and works for the benefit of the population. The political parties had only one choice, to approve the new government, otherwise the Parliament will be dissolved.

Ilyes Fakhfakh arranged to find a consensus and decided to from a political government that is capable to raise the challenges, especially with the beginning of the Pandemic. The performance of the government was acceptable, and there was a harmony between the Prime Minister and the President of the Republic. By that time, the removed Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi was the Minister of Interior.

A second try

At the end of June, when Tunisia had zero cases of COVID-19, and the economy began to get its breath, calls for the resignment of the Prime Minister became higher and higher. He was claimed to have a case of conflict of interest, and by the end of July, Ilyes Fakhfakh resigned. The President of the republic had the other chance to choose a new Prime Minister to form a new government, and the political parties had their last chance to remain at the Parliament, because if they didn’t approve that government, the Parliament will be automatically dissolved.

By choosing Mr Hichem Mechichi, the President, who thought that he chose someone trustful, gave the Political Parties the chance to influence his man and get him in their camp. At the afternoon of the general assembly to approve the government, the President felt he was betrayed. He urged a meeting with the political parties and demanded not to vote for that government and reassured that he won’t dissolve the Parliament. But that was too late, the mouse was already in the trap. And the political crisis emerged.

Hichem Mechichi and his promises to his coalition

Since the plenary session for the approval of the government, supporters of the government declared that a Ministerial reshuffle would take place soon, by eliminating the Ministers that were chosen by the President. It was visible through the whole period that Hichem Mechichi was abiding to his supporting political parties, mainly Ennahdha, Qalb Tounes and Itilef Al Karama, and wasn’t working along with the President of the Republic to fight corruption and improve the quality of life. But all the indicators were showing that the resources of the state were put under the disposition of certain members, and corruption ramped, and justice was only applied on poor categories of the citizens.

First reaction of the President

The Prime Minister decided by the end of 2020, to make a Ministerial reshuffle, and went to the Parliament to get the approval for his new Ministers. Before the plenary session at the Parliament, the President called for the meeting of the National Security Council and warned that the procedure taken to make the reshuffle was not constitutional, and that there wasn’t an objective assessment of the performance of the Ministers that will be replaced, and that there are four from the proposed Ministers that are corrupted, and they need to be changed. The Prime Minister and his supporters’ reaction were to go ahead with the decision and get the approval of this reshuffle from the Parliament.

Second reaction from the President

The Ministerial reshuffle was approved by the Parliament, but the Ministers couldn’t be able to take their positions without taking the oath in front of the President of the Republic. The President of the Republic refused to invite them and give them the legitimacy to take their functions, considering that action non-constitutional.

A deepened political crisis

The situation became unsupportable. The political crisis was deepened, and the relations between the President and the Prime Minister was very tensioned.

The level of political, moral, and ethical values was low to the point that the general public has become trivializing politics, parties and the House of Representatives, in light of the deteriorating economic and social conditions, the spread of corruption and the escape from punishment. In addition, the government's failure to manage the Corona pandemic crisis and the people's feeling of resentment and neglect by their rulers who were running after their personal interests, created favorable conditions for a social explosion, and the trends of major events in country were visible.

25th of July is a coffee talk

On the 10th of July, the representative of Ennahdha party, announced publicly that the government is required to prepare the compensation of their militants, who suffered during the previous regime, and that needed to be effective before the 25th of July, the day of the Republic.

Those declarations triggered the anger of some activists on social media. On the 10th of July 2021, they created a Facebook group named “NON aux indemnisations des Nahdhaouis” with only one objective: to oppose the compensation of the nahdhaoui. The group could gather more than 700.000 supporters during a very limited time, and calls for a nationwide movement were supported, and it was agreed on the date of the 25th of July as the beginning of the popular movements to dissolve the Parliament and the government and to make the change needed for the benefit of the country and the coming generations. The organizers were clear in their demands, they requested that this movement continues in a peaceful way until their demands are fulfilled. The movements were planned in front of the Parliament, at the Habib Bourguiba Avenue, and in all the regions.

Politicians from the political parties supporting the government, threatened anyone to participate in the protests, and considered this movement “coffee talks” and “Internet leisure”, and didn’t realize that the 2011 revolution initiated from social media and could change the Ben Ali regime.?

Coffee talks or Real threat?

It is the 25th of July, day of the Republic, the temperature exceeds 45° in some regions, and the situation of the outbreak is very bad. Restriction of movements are all over the country and the security forces enforced those restrictions, to limit the movements of the protesters. But the protesters were determined to initiate this new phase, and crowds began to be formed in Bardo and in the regions. Different categories went out and insisted to participate in this historic day. Images began to spread on the group page and events were accelerating the change. Protests in Sfax, Sousse, Kairouan, Tozeur were broadcasted through the internet. Protesters were attacking the Ennahdha offices, and the building in Tozeur was invaded and all the containments were put on fire. The protests in Sfax and Sousse were huge and clashes between citizens and the security forces triggered. A police vehicle was flamed in Sfax and tensions in Bardo were at their top. Events extended in many other regions and the movement was a success as the number of participants was huge. The security situation became delicate and by the end of the day, several offices of Ennahdha were invaded and it was clear that the following days will be much more violent. ?

The decision

It was broadcasted that the President of the Republic urged a high-level security meeting to take important decisions. As a follower, I personally thought that, like previous occasions, we’ll hear only talks. But, surprisingly, the President of the Republic announced what most of the population was waiting to hear since a long time. During previous conversations with my colleagues, I always told them that the only solution for the country’s current situation, is to go beyond the normal, and make the decision to open the hidden locks of the constitution with decisions that go beyond the constitution so that the real change of the abnormal political scene takes place. The 2014 constitution was made in a way that doesn’t permit any flexibility for any stakeholder to make the required updates or changes according to the situation for the benefit of the country.

But, the President of the Republic, could decode the article 80 of the constitution and use it to stop violent events that could lead the country to an unknown future. He announced the suspension of the Parliament and all its authorities for one month that could be extended, dismissed the Prime Minister from his functions, and his will to designate a new one and approve the nomination of a new government. ?

The decision was a shock to the governing political parties, as the President had his own view to the application of article 80, which entitles the president to take the necessary measures to halt any imminent “danger threatening the integrity of the country,”. The President also lifted the Parliamentary immunity of the deputies, in a clear will to let the judicial authorities proceed for the judgement of those that are demanded to the different courts, in cases like corruption, terrorism, money laundering and use of authority to get personal interests. It is believed that almost 54 deputies (out of 217) have court cases and because of the Parliamentary immunity, investigations did not take place. It is also known to the public, that many political figures and deputies are involved in some corruption cases.

The President responded to the population will

Supporters of some political parties, mainly Ennahdha, described the decision of the President of the Republic as a coup to the democratic transition in Tunisia and qualified it as non-constitutional. I am not going to analyze that in political words, but just let the numbers talk:

-?????????The 2014 constitution presumes that by 2015, the constitutional court should be established: by that time, Ennahdha was governing and dominating the Parliament along with Nidaa Tounes, and the two political parties had the possibility to vote the constitutional court members. But because of personal interests, that decision was not made, and failure to have that important institution was intended.

-?????????Monthly surveys were made to show the population satisfaction barometer on the performance of the political leaders, and this concerns especially the President of the Republic, the President of the Parliament, and the Prime Minister. The surveys showed that the population was never satisfied with the performance of the President of the Parliament and the Prime Minister. Their performance was the poorest since 2011 (it didn’t exceed 13%). ?

-?????????Following the 25th of July 2021 events, more than 87% of the population supported the decisions of the President and just 3% were against them. This is just the same result that was presented above, showing that the signals for a second revolution were there, but the political parties ignored them, because they weren’t thinking strategically, and did not have a vision for the country. That’s why, peoples’ patience reached the end of the tunnel, and the mobilization to protest and stop the bleeding of mediocrity and non-patriotism was very fast.

-?????????Different reports, that dated from 2011, that included investigations about corruption and non-legal activities that businessmen, political parties and institutions were involved in, did not lead to any results, because there wasn’t a political will to make the required change. That led to the accumulation of infractions, and escape routes to corrupted individuals and groups, but also encouraged others to continue their way in that corruption path. ?All the 9 governments that were in power from 2011, did not open the right folders, and did not focus on establishing a clear road map to counter corruption and adhere to the demands of the population after the revolution.

political parties, until the last report of the court of about the 2019 elections, and the involvement of Ennahdha, Qalb Tounes and Aich Tounsi, in receiving foreign funds, a cause that might lead to the change of the current political powers.

What are the future scenarios?

I wrote this article on the 26th of July, but wanted to wait before publishing, to see how the trends will be. There were several stories going on, with huge rumors, and social media was full of fake news. But again, it seems that the political class is not aware of the real situation and are not analyzing the President’s style of thinking.

In my opinion, the President of the Republic is thinking differently than most of the analyzers. The President has a problem of confidence in the political class and doesn’t want to be engaged without being fully sure that the steps he is taking are widely supported, and the right people are leading this important phase. His experience with the former Prime Minister, that he designated for leading the government, was an ethical shock for him. He thought that he chose someone trusted and known to be independent and patriotic, but after that experience, he considered that he was betrayed by a man that he trusted. And we should understand the feeling of a university professor who believes in ethics, values, and principles.

From a political point of view, Kais Saied has a project, based on which he could gather around him a young population that looked for a better future, where their voices are precious, and can be retreated when their representatives do not fulfill their promises. This idea builds for a new political system, just like the federal system in the US, but which doesn’t rely mainly on the political parties in a first phase, but where political parties need to change the way they practice political principles and ethics. This political project builds for a supported regional development style, where ideas and local projects are not designed at the central level, but come from the local ideas and thoughts, mainly from a young representation. His main goal is to shape a new development model and a new representation of the young generation, who will be much more involved in the decision-making process, and an equitable distribution of wealth.

But how can he reach this objective?

The President has a dream, and to achieve that dream, he must be the leader of the present and the future. His philosophy is based on giving the political parties a time of rest. A new transition period will be presented in his road map. In my reading to the situation, the road map of the President will be based on three phases:

-?????????Phase 1: Addressing all the issues related to corruption and personal interests; this will include a massive campaign of revealing all the cases that are known, but also that will be discovered during investigations. This phase will be characterized by detailed application of the law, and respect of the legal procedures and human rights. The President is a man of justice, and he insisted on that during several declarations, and we currently see how he treats his presumed enemies. He has so far respected that. This phase might be a long one, because it might include the dissolvement of powerful political parties, who are involved in foreign investment according to the reports of the court.

-?????????Phase 2: ?Temporary system for public authorities; According to some signals detected in his last speeches, the President talked about a temporary system for public authorities. This leads to a conclusion that he is willing to suspend the 2014 constitution, and this might be through a popular referendum. This phase will permit the revision of the election law, the law related to political parties and associations, the code for local authorities and the political system in general.

-?????????Phase 3: A call for early elections; after the completion of the above phases, which might last for at least one year, the President will call for early legislative and Presidential elections (as he already guaranteed his fully success), with an updated constitution and new laws that will serve the stability of the state.

Meanwhile, the President will work on improving the performance of the administrations and public institutions, working tightly with the men he trusts and the military institution, and the National organizations that support him. He will conduct the expected campaign to clear the assignments that were made based on political membership and affiliation and non on professional skills.

Conclusion

From one side, the political parties in Tunisia need to take some time off and evaluate their performance in a very objective way. They are required to change their approach to the population that no longer trusts them. They are also required to find their path to the President of the Republic, and support his national objectives and vision, and make the smooth integration within the national political system, as they represent the pillars of democracy.

From the other side, the current situation is surrounded with huge risks, that the advisors of the President need to be aware of and find the required mitigation measures to reduce their impact if happened. Civil disturbances, revolution of the National organizations, a non-participatory approach to shape the road map, being focused internally and narcissism are high risks that are on the radar and need to be addressed. The international community is also waiting for the next steps and can’t wait to support the new democratic transition process.

Most of the population believes that this is a great opportunity to build the new republic, where the corruption is reduced, and the national wealth is equitably spread among regions. It is an opportunity to reduce favoritism and build strong institutions that are in the service of the population.