Revisiting the U-Shaped Curve for Your New Year Projects

The U-Shaped Curve

How to use the U-Shaped curve to understand and manage successful journeys.

As we move into the new year I wanted to share a model that can help put challenging projects into perspective.?This model is known as the U-shaped curve.?

What is the U-Shaped curve model?

In a nutshell this model says that for any project or journey, you can break it up into 3 phases.??In the first phase, initial progress will be great and there will be much enthusiasm and success.?

As you enter the second phase you will encounter challenges that will threaten your ability to move ahead with the project.?

Finally, in the third phase you will begin to find success again and move towards your goal.?

Examples:

I’ll give you some examples of applications of the U-Shape curve, but I’ll also offer some suggestions on how to work with the U-shaped curve to get to your goal.

The U-Shaped curve in personal improvement.

A great example for the new year would be a habit example.?Let’s say you want to lose weight, or get in shape, or stop drinking.?

How does it usually work? ??You set you goal.?You come up with your daily plan to get you there.

For example: “I’m going to lose 20 pounds by only eating vegetables and drinking water for 30 days!”

And what ends up happening??

You start out full of enthusiasm.?You make it through the first 4 days and you’ve lost 5 of those pounds!

Then it gets hard.?You lose sight of the goal.?Someone offers to buy you a pizza.?

You give up.

Or maybe you stay strong and make through your 30 days, but to do that you need to get through the challenges, keep yourself focused on the goal and eventually get through the U-Shaped Curve.

The U-Shaped curve as a metaphor for journeys

One of the best metaphors for describing the U-Shaped curve is a journey to a distant mountain top.?

Let’s imagine we are on the top of a hill and looking across a valley to a mountain.?Our goal is to get conquer that mountain and get to the top.?

We start out with a lot of energy and confidence as we march down the hill into the valley.?

But once in the valley we lose sight of the mountain.?We can’t see it through the trees and bushes.?We get scratched and torn at.?It’s dark and we lose our direction.?

We rally our courage and use our compass to stay on track and fight through the underbrush.?

Then finally, just as we are about to give up. Just as we have lost hope, we break through the tree-line and see the mountain, glorious in front of us and begin our climb to the summit.?

There will be more challenges as we climb, but we can see the top now, and we will make it.

That is a parable or metaphor for the U-Shaped Curve Journey.?

Another would be “The Hero’s Journey” and described by Joseph Campbell in his eponymous book.?All you need to do is think about any classic hero story like ‘The Odyssey’ and you will see the U-shaped curve of the journey.

The U-Shaped curve in business.

The U-shaped curve is famously applied to startup ventures.?Paul Graham, Co-founder of Y Combinator, developed a term for that phase two struggle — the Trough of Sorrow.?This is the place where the startup fails to acquire enough customers and struggles to stay alive.?

Another example the popular dimensional plots of consultants to track technology, like the Gartner Hype Cycles which get their name from that first phase of enthusiasm in new technologies.

In the business world it has been demonstrated over and over again that most new products, new ideas and new deployments will go through the U-Shaped curve.?But, for some reason, most new project curves are a planned as a straight line up and to the right.?(Just look at any startup revenue forecast)

This creates a huge gap in expectations and cognitive dissonance up and down management and execution as everyone scrambles to explain the struggles or maybe even looks for blame.?

So what can you do about it? How do you use it to your advantage?

1.??????Understand the dynamic of the U-Shaped curve.

Just having the cognitive model of the U-Shaped curve will help you deal with the struggles when you are in the trough.?Simply being able to say “We are in the trough!” can help refocus your energy.?

Understanding the model can keep you and your team from spiraling into “The Sky is Falling’ and “All hope is lost”.?

It is a in fact a fantastic leadership opportunity.?As a leader you can assure everyone that this is a normal part of the process and refocus them on the goal.

2.??????Persistence is the key.?

There is no mystery here.?The only way through the hard parts is to put your shoulder to the wheel and keep pushing.?This is easy to say but it is a challenge in practice.?The trough of despair is called that for a reason.?The most difficult thing about it is that it crushes you emotionally and leaves you without the emotional energy to fight back.?

Once more, you can see this as a leadership opportunity.?If you can be the one that shows up with sincere, positive energy in the midst of dire circumstance you will raise up your team.?Persistence is required.?But inspiration is the fuel. ?Think of Winston Churchill and the Darkest Hour.

3.??????Eye on the prize.

One of the big reasons people lose direction when they enter the trough is that they lose sight of the goal. Meaning the goal no longer has the positive, attractive energy to power the team forward.?

As a leader you have to pound that nail.?You need to remind the team why you are doing this and how great the mountain top will be.?The goal is your true north compass when you are in the trough. ?(and if it isn’t then you need to reassess your goals)

Summary:

The truth is most projects we will be involved in this year will be subject to the U-Shaped Curve.?To successfully achieve your goals, whether personal or professional you will need to navigate that curve.?

You will find yourself in times of challenge and trouble, and understanding the dynamic of the U-Shape curve will give you the confidence to stay focused and ?power through.

Because, my friends, it’s ok if it’s hard.?The hard is what makes it worthwhile.?

Lean into the struggle and make friends with it as a celebration of leadership.??