Revised US GDP Nowcast For Q4 Still Reflects Modest Slowdown
The US economy remains on track to end the year with a moderate increase in output, according to the median Q4 GDP estimate based on a set of nowcasts published by several sources. Recession risk, as a result, is still a low-probability risk for the near term. The question is whether a sharp change in US economic policy in 2025 will change the calculus?
For the immediate future, the US economy is humming along at a respectable pace. Real (inflation-adjusted) growth is projected to increase 2.0% in Q4 for the annualized comparison, based on the median. The estimate is down from Q3’s?2.8% advance.?Today’s Q4 nowcast, if correct, will mark the second straight quarter of modestly softer growth.