Revise Away the Pain
Hello and welcome back to the Recruitonomics Newsletter! This week we’re breaking down some dramatic GDP revisions in the United Kingdom which shifted understanding on?the strength of the economy.?
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This Week on Recruitonomics:
UK Economy: No Longer Underperforming?
The United Kingdom underperformed massively after the pandemic. After being hit particularly hard during lockdowns, the economy has really struggled to recover. At least, that’s what initial GDP data suggested. However, the narrative has transformed completely after a special report from the Office of National Statistics included dramatic revisions. The United Kingdom is actually 1.8% larger than previously reported, meaning the economy is outperforming Germany and is on par with countries like France and Italy. How was the data so off? Well, the unprecedented economic pause followed by massive growth created a challenge for statisticians. Recently, the OECD released guidelines on updating GDP estimates. So the United Kingdom may not be the only country to rewrite the last couple years of growth in the coming weeks and months.?
Read the full article here.
What does this mean for recruiters??
Revisions are not new: official data is often adjusted for months after first publication. However, the COVID-19 pandemic created a new challenge and revisions have become much more dramatic, not only in the United Kingdom but in the United States and other advanced economies as well. For recruiters, uncertainty about the true position of the labor market and economy on the whole could complicate hiring plans.?
Recruiting Tips:?
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Canada’s economy added 40,000 net new jobs in August, much more impressive than the slow growth in July. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.5% after increasing for several months in a row. The labor market is definitely slowing and is especially struggling to keep up with population growth in the country. Canada’s liberal immigration policy has contributed to very strong population growth: In August, the 15+ aged population grew by 103,000. However, labor force outcomes have not been as great as population outcomes thus far, but the Canadian labor market has room to grow: employment growth of approximately 50,000 per month is required for the employment rate to remain constant. Canada is in an enviable position of having a steady supply of labor.?
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Read the full article here.
The German economy’s struggle refuses to fade away and it seems that a technical recession may be back on the table in the quarters to come. A technical recession began in Q4 2022 and technically ended in Q2 of this year when Germany experienced exactly zero GDP growth. It’s too soon to know whether the economy contracted again in the Q3: The Q3 GDP numbers for Germany will be published at the end of October. However, economists use high frequency indicators to learn where the economy is headed in real-time. These data points were particularly important during the pandemic when the economy was in a stop-and-go mode due to the intermittent lockdowns that governments imposed that were supposed to keep the virus from spreading. As uncertainty remains, these data points continue to be helpful.?
Read the full article here.
What Recruitonomics is Reading:
In just a year, pay transparency has become the norm rather than the exception in job postings across the United States. States and cities began implementing pay transparency laws in recent years, forcing employers to include salaries in their online job postings. Pay transparency may close gender and racial pay gaps but also helps employers build trust with their employees and potential new workers. It also makes the job search process in general more efficient, as there’s more complete information on both sides of the process. Data from Indeed shows that more than half of job postings in the United States on Indeed included employer-provided salary information in August. That is up from just 18% of job postings with pay transparency in February 2020. Pay transparency is not distributed evenly across the country, though. Unsurprisingly, pay transparency is highest in states with disclosure laws and the states around them. But the popularity of pay transparency is picking up: The share of job advertisements including pay increased in every U.S. state from August 2022.?
?More Data & Insights:
Thank you for reading! Stay tuned for next week's Recruitonomics Newsletter and check out Recruitonomics.com for more data-driven insights.