Review of the Silicon Calcium Market in 2024 and Outlook for 2025

Calcium silicon (CaSi) alloy, obtained from silica, lime, and coke at 1500-1800°C, mainly contains silicon and calcium with various impurities. Used in steel for deoxidation, desulfurization, and modifying non-metallic inclusions, and as an inoculant in cast iron. CaSi is also available as powder, granule, or lump.

Silicon Calcium Market Conditions

At the beginning of 2024, steel mills' stocking demands were gradually released, and since market selling prices were close to cost lines, silicon calcium manufacturers maintained a stable mindset, reducing low-priced goods in the market. However, after the Spring Festival, due to increased inventory pressure and slow recovery of downstream demand, market transactions were sluggish, causing factory quotes to slide across the board.

Entering the second quarter, despite continuous reductions in market capacity and slight increases in raw material costs, which led to a rebound in April's silicon calcium quotations, demand did not improve. The actual transaction prices in the silicon calcium market were quite chaotic. By May, silicon calcium quotations continued to rise due to tight supply, rising metal calcium product prices, and higher raw material costs. Nevertheless, because of unstable prices, downstream purchases were cautious, and high-priced transactions were limited.

In the third quarter, the off-season effect caused downstream demand to weaken, making it difficult for high-priced transactions amid oversupply. In August, the decline in silicon calcium alloy prices narrowed compared to previous months, and overall price trends stabilized. Despite the presence of negative factors, companies struggled to maintain price stability considering cost factors. In September, silicon calcium alloy prices continued to fall slowly under demand and spot inventory pressures, although some low-priced transactions were concluded, while export markets saw slightly higher prices due to the appreciation of the RMB.

Early in the fourth quarter, due to maintenance in Inner Mongolia and the positive impact of rising futures prices in the black series, silicon calcium market quotations rose briefly after the National Day holiday. However, due to weak demand and the resumption of production by Inner Mongolian enterprises, market bearishness dominated, putting downward pressure on silicon calcium transaction prices. In November, the pattern of demand-side weakness remained unchanged, and silicon calcium prices continued to decline slightly. By December, four major domestic silicon calcium plants maintained normal production status, with relatively high output, but slow release of downstream restocking demands kept inventory pressures high, keeping prices in a weak state.

Overview of Silicon Calcium Alloy Prices from 2022 to 2024

Over the past three years, the adjustment range of silicon calcium alloy prices has gradually narrowed, showing an overall downward trend. Taking Ningxia region as an example, from 2022 to 2024, the highest average prices and lowest average prices of silicon calcium Ca1 decreased annually, with annual average prices also gradually decreasing, reflecting changes in market supply-demand relationships and industry challenges faced.

Operation and Production Status of the Silicon Calcium Market in 2024

After the Spring Festival, due to weak demand, silicon calcium prices continued to decline, with factory selling prices hovering near cost lines. Additionally, large inventories led to reduced production intentions among factories, resulting in shutdowns and maintenance starting in March. With policy support and gradual inventory digestion, silicon calcium market operations began to recover in April, with significant restoration of output by May. During the second half of the year, silicon calcium capacity and output were relatively stable, though there was a brief period of maintenance at Inner Mongolian silicon calcium plants in October, leading to a slight drop in output. From November to December, six silicon calcium furnaces across four major national standard silicon calcium plants maintained normal production status, with relatively high output.

Outlook for the Silicon Calcium Market in 2025

Considering the current economic situation, it is unlikely that there will be a significant rebound in demand next year, and terminals may continue to reduce capacities and outputs. Therefore, it is expected that the silicon calcium market in 2025 will mainly feature minor weakening adjustments. It is crucial to closely monitor policy measures aimed at improving domestic and international demand. Additionally, factors such as fluctuations in raw material prices, environmental protection requirements, and technological advancements will be key influences on the future development of the silicon calcium market.