Review on May 2023

1.??????As per info published by NEA of China, a total of 33.66GW new PV capacity was added in 2023Q1, in which utility scale projects took 46% share with 15.53GW, while DG projects took the rest 54% with 18.13GW in total. Henan, Hubei and Shandong were TOP 3 provinces. More details are shown in the Figure 1??.

In the utility scale sector, all of the TOP 4, which are Hubei, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Yunnan, had more than 1GW new capacity added. On the other hand, since the beginning of 2023 to the end of May, over 80GW project in plan were announced by each province and region and most of them are to be commissioned before the end of the 14th Five Years Plan. In the sum, Guizhou is planning 25GW+, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi and Guangdong Province are planning 10GW+. Details of the rest of the country are shown in Figure 2??.

As for the DG sector, 8.92GW of Residential PV and 9.21GW of C&I PV were installed in 2023Q1.

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2.?????During the first 4 weeks of May, a total of 4.85GW EPC tenders were awarded, in which utility scale projects took 65%. In terms of price, the average price (tax incl.) of DG projects was 3.95 RMB/W and 2.12 RMB/W (major equipment excl.); the average price (tax incl.) of utility scale is 4.06 RMB/W and 1.75 RMB/W (major equipment excl.).

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3.?????In May, a total of 5.56GW solar panel tenders were awarded. The highest price went to 1.613 RMB/W and lowest 1.535.

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4.?????According to Wood Mackenzie, the global FPV market is expecting to grow steadily with a CAGR of 15% and to hit 6GW by 2031. The floating PV is indeed a workaround for the lack of land and increasing land cost, but we must keep calm and be clear about the Pros and Cons.

5.?????As per Gessey, a total of 64.192GW of solar panels were exported from China during January to April this year., with a yoy rate of 21%.

6.?????The Authority of Greece has launched a subsidy for households and farmers who decide to install solar projects with small energy storage system, as part of the country’s post pandemic recovery plan. The 200 million Euros package is open to applicants since April.

?At the same time, the Authority of Bulgaria has also come up with a solar rebate scheme of 240 million BGN, aiming at reduce the households’ carbon footprint as well as reduce the expenditure on electricity bills.

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7.?????Holosolis, a company founded by EIT InnoEnergy, has announced its plan to establish a solar panel factory in France, which is so far the largest in the continent. This 5GW factory will be operational at its full capacity in 2027. 1,700 employees will be recruited in Grand Est, Sarreguemine region, where the facility is located.

French developer Reden Solar also announced its investment to a new pv module production line of 200MW in France. The 4 million Euro investment would help the company to expand its production capacity to 265MW annually.

Same situation is happening in the US

Enel has announced its plan to build a 3GW solar cell and solar panel factory in Oklahoma with future possibility to double the capacity.

SPI’s subsidiary company SEM Wafertech has announced plan for new wafer production plant and to elevate its wafer capacity to 3GW. Another subsidiary of the company Solar4America is set out its target of increasing its solar panel capacity to 2.4GW by the end of this year with its production plants in Sacramento and South Carolina.

Canadian Premium Sand is about to build a new plant of solar glass, with daily capacity of 550 tons (equivalent to a 6GW annual capacity). The products will cover the needs from residential PV and C&I PV (3.2mm) and Public Utility (2mm).

Maxeon is also assessing the possibility to expand their production capacity to 3GW in the US.

China takes over 80% the production capacity of all the PV supply chain and western countries are worried about that the situation may hurt the energy security of their own. Anyway, such preoccupation is understandable but overreacted. The Chinese companies never wanted to play the business in a political way.

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8.?????On May 12, the US Department of Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service released the guidance on domestic content requirements for renewable projects under the IRA scheme. PV projects must meet requirements for both PV and steel components before benefit from the ITC or PTC duty reduction. It is required a 40% of domestic content before 2025, after which the percentage will go up to 55%.

However, most of the producers will not be able to enjoy this “AID” since the supply chain of PV products are quite crippled in the US as there is almost no mature solar cell, solar glass or encapsulating material industries in the country, let alone the gap between the huge demand of the country and the tiny existing production capacity.

As we said in last entry, there is people playing the energy business in a political way, claiming the threat from China over the energy security. But, so far, there is no evidence supporting the argument, and it is their own people who are suffering from the “side-effects” from the policies.

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9.?????Let’s go thru the supply chain

Polysilicon raw material continued its decrease as new production capacity keeps releasing, with a week on week decreasing rate of 10.3%. To avoid further loss, some buyers changed their frequency of purchase from weekly order to daily order, which worsen the market’s worry over the price stability. It near future, we believe the trend will carry on.

The Wafer suffered from the price drop of raw material, and the decreasing rate was over 30%. Besides, the high stock of wafer producer amplified the panic in the market. Several producers have cut the operating rate, which again passed the burden to the upstream raw material factories and enhanced the price drop.

Solar cells are no exception in the context of a universal price decreasing. In May, the solar cells have had a WoW drop of 4.8%.

The solar modules are finally expecting another round of price drop. In specific solar panel tender awarded in China, the lower price of P type Mono panel has hit 1.5RMB/W. We believe that a affordable price of solar module would help to motivate the construction of PV projects, and it is good news for the industry in some extent.

OK, so much for the information, see you next month!