A reversal of fortune

When I last wrote about F1, Max Verstappen had just taken the championship lead by 4 points in Monaco. After the Hungarian GP – Hamilton has re-taken the lead by 8 points. At his peak Verstappen held a lead of 33 points. It looks like this will be tight championship fight till the end. Here’s an extra insight for the wise – in the long run, everything reverts back to the normal. A tough fight wont suddenly become uncompetitive. If Red Bull shows a significant straight line speed advantage, then Mercedes will develop the car more. The favorite and challenger will always switch positions.?

Another interesting insight is that the teams seem intent on leaving the results in suspense. After the British GP – Red Bull initiated its right to review Hamilton’s lenient penalty and after the Hungarian GP – Aston Martin did similarly for Vettel’s disqualification. Both those reviews failed. Let's call this trend #1 – what we think of as good sportsmanship is rapidly changing.

While I will definitely run through the 4 races prior to the British GP in a separate article, this one will cover the incidents of just two races which seem to indicate that Mercedes is now the incumbent favorite (again):

1.???The good team mate

If we ignore the Hungarian GP, Bottas had put in some great performances as the #2 driver. He gave Hamilton the tow at Silverstone and helped him qualify first. In the main race, he immediately let him overtake and make a run for the win. When you can’t win yourself, help the team win.

Perez on the other hand has moved in the wrong direction. His costly maneuver in the British GP saw him start lower on the grid and score no points.

My insight: Demarcating #1 and #2 is good for optimizing team performance, when competing at the front. Ferrari may not need clearly defined roles, But Mercedes and Red Bull certainly do. Imagine the fiasco if Apple had Co-CEOs.

2.???The development paradox

Do I win today or win tomorrow? It’s a simple game. Resources are limited due to the budget cap – and you have to make tough trade-offs. Red Bull have already indicated that they will not concede the 2021 development fight. Mercedes knew they were in for a thumping so they brought in stellar upgrades for Silverstone. They’ve gained straight line speed, but I’m not sure how much because we haven’t been able to see a direct Hamilton v. Verstappen fight yet.

My insight: Go big or go home. If you invest today, you need to see immediate results. As a challenger invest in things which will eliminate the deficit or create a positive net effect.

3.???The clear home field advantage

Red Bull won both races in Austria. No that’s an understatement. They dominated both races in Austria. Mercedes won in the UK, despite a 10 second penalty for Hamilton. Now I’m not saying a favorable crowd helps, the empirical evidence is simply not there, but perhaps the reverse is true. If you under-perform at your home GP, the crowd will go crazy.

My insight: Treat everything as if it were your home field. Imagine the ecosystems disappointment if you don’t put on a good show. Its negative – but perhaps it works.

4.???In a game of eyeballs, new is good (overall)

Hello and welcome Sprint Qualifying. It’s great to have you with us.

For those among us who aren’t die – hard F1 fans, the British GP was the most exciting weekend in many years (even without the first lap drama). It was a full weekend of entertainment. Friday was Qualifying – which set the grid for the Sprint on Saturday – which in turn set the grid for the main event on Sunday. While we don’t have the viewership numbers yet – the change in driver reactions paints a positive picture. Before it, they were unanimously opposed, now they are largely in favour.

While some semantic challenges remain – Ex. Hamilton set the best time in Qualifying while Verstappen won the Sprint so who get pole in the history books? Verstappen officially. I’m in the minority which thinks it should be Hamilton.

My insight: Blame computing power for our short attention spans, but that change is irreversible. We want outcomes – winners and losers. Barely anyone is interested in the micro aspects, the subtle differences between good and great. The art of a perfect serve in tennis and a perfect stroke in cricket. Doesn’t matter. The only thing we can do for our customers is to engage in and win, shorter deterministic games. Imagine F1 – the sum total of 23 races gives us just 1 winner. But the races themselves offer numerous adrenalines spikes all year long.

5.???The Ferrari balance

Ferrari has the best team of drivers. Not the best car, not the best individual driver, the best engineer or best team principal. The best pair. Both LeClerc (80) and Sainz have scored (83) consistently and lifted the team to #3 in the standings. They’re a great pair.

In the 2nd half of the season, expect to see Ferrari fighting for race wins again. If all goes well they’re straight line speed will improve and they’ve already got great compliance on the corners, which very nearly propelled LeClerc to victory at Silverstone.

My insight: Having a good team balance works for a challenger. Ferrari is at #3, Alpine at #5 and both teams have drivers separated by less than 3 points. If your team mates are doing well, remember that this will bring you closer to the incumbent. Compete hard and fair, you will win some engagements and lose the others to your team mates, but immediately the team moves forward.

6.???Risk v. Reward

Verstappen is a once in a generational talent. He’s naturally fast and aggressive. You may think because you increase the risk on your stock portfolio and make sensational returns that you’re infallible. No offense to Verstappen – but he certainly thought of himself that way. Hamilton had sensational speed at the start of the British GP. Verstappen should have conceded, if only momentarily. Both got their elbows out and fought the very bitter end. It lasted 45 seconds and ended with a brave young man hitting the wall at an astounding 51G force. Yes 51 times the force of gravity. Was it worth the physical and psychological damage it caused? Not one bit.

This is a great incentive for F1 to kill speed. Not the overall lap times, but sheer straight line speed. No more 350+ kmph spots. No more 200 kmph corners. More car weight and less downforce. After Silverstone, I think it may be a wise call.

My insight: Remember the risk even when you succeed. I don’t mean dial risk down to 50% and reward to the same level, that won’t work. But choose when and where to take a risk. It’s just as important to know when to concede as it is to know when you can be aggressive.

7.???Incumbents find it harder to change

Hamilton led the red flagged restart of the Hungarian GP. All teams were on intermediate tyres (which work well in wet conditions). But in the space of a single formation lap the track improved, and slicks were the order of the day. Ocon in 2nd started a chain pitting reaction which effectively saw Hamilton take the start alone and drop to the back of the grid, from the next lap. Were Hamilton or Mercedes wrong? In hindsight – sure. But when you’re leading the way – you lock in your choices a lot before everyone else. There’s a risk in doing something different.

My insight: People say look in your rearview mirror to see whos coming up from behind. But in competitive responses, sometimes it makes sense to forget about that. If you know the situation has changed, then trust your gut and take that risk. Playing it safe may just net you 2nd place, after a painful comeback.

8.???First, make no mistakes

Let spend a minute on the hero of this fairytale. Esteban Ocon had the weight of 8 years without the team winning a single race on his shoulders. He had a four time world champion snapping at his heels. He carried the expectations of a nation in his heart. Through all the adversity – not one mistake and he won his first GP. Then luck and circumstance did the rest. And Alonso of course, but that’s another point.

My insight: Making zero mistakes is an easy ask. Everyone can do it if time is no consideration. But that’s never the case. Figuring out how to first make no error in a time bound manner, is the key to one up everyone else.

9.????I may be old, but I’m still smart and fast - Fernando A

Fernando Alonso probably should have been a five time world champion, if not more. He’s already got two and he lost 3 by less than 5 points. He’s not the best at any aspect of the weekend currently (although in the best car he might well ace it all), but he’s the complete package. He kept Lewis Hamilton behind him for 10 laps. Hamilton was on better and newer tyres, with a significantly better car. In essence, he helped his team mate win the GP.

My insight: In most fields age should not be a deterrent. Physical fitness can push you ahead 10 years, but mental fitness keeps 80 year old’s on the US Supreme Court. Take care of the mind and body – all great leaders do that.

10. In good times and bad, be humble

There have been a lot of sharp comments between Red Bull and Mercedes in recent months. Neither one was innocent in this battle. If it were up to me, I’d want a mutual truce to avoid public roasts but that doesn’t work. In a media driven world – verbal attacks are the new blood sport. The winner of these attacks is often the humble, self – effacing one. I respect Hamilton’s calm and composure, which everyone does. Although we are all rooting for Verstappen to win (a feeling and not a prediction), no one would grudge him an eighth title.

My insight: Be humble at all times. When Mercedes arrived at Silverstone, Red Bull had 44 more points, and a grand slam to their name. The team knew it was just 2 DNFs away, which Silverstone delivered. Being humble is a great PR strategy, because when you fall down, as we all do, everyone is rooting for you to get back up again.

If you like the article – there are two more in this series. One will focus on the other races which led to this moment (or rather Red Bull’s prior dominance). The next will be on Tuesday morning – following the events at SPA, I’ll make a simple prediction of who will win the Championship (Sneak peek – I think the Drivers’ Championship and Team Championship will be won by different teams).