The return of the swarm

The current crisis in the Red Sea and the conflict in Ukraine have demonstrated one thing amongst many issues: unmanned systems and swarming strategies are here to stay.

Smarter than a salvo, swarming systems make use of advanced technology, tactics, and practices to overwhelm a target’s defences and increase the probability of a kill. Lowering the cost of effectors while increasing their capabilities means that more actors – from standing armies to terrorist organisations – can make significant symbolic gains while not having to be as concerned about failure as the deployment of a larger, more powerful system can allow.

While the command-and-control of a networked swarm comes with its own technological challenges, what does it mean for a defending commander? For maritime commanders who are currently in the frontline, the challenge of working against a swarming enemy is compounded by issues such as detection, positioning, effector choice, and operational art.

Sense, make sense, act

Swarming targets – be they crewed or uncrewed; flying, floating, or submerged – can surprise and overwhelm a vessel relying solely on radar or sonar systems. As a swarm travels close together, these sensors may not have the ability to disaggregate the threat into its constituent subunits until they are at a shorter range, and greater resolution in a sensor picture can be delivered.

The creation and delivery of a recognised maritime picture (RMP) that can be shared around a coalition network relies on a capable C4ISR platform to develop and distribute it, taking data from a variety of automated sensors, detection systems, and data streams. Fusing this into a single RMP then allows a commander to have the best understanding of the battlespace around them, and the threats and risks that they face – as well as the friendly and civilian vessels they have a responsibility to support and protect.

The ability to fuse a variety of sensors from across the area of interest allows a commander to ensure they have the correct RMP. Adding in data from the land domain and from coalition sources that can be distributed across all services further allows for greater resolution and fidelity of the battlespace, helping commanders to decide on the best way to resolve a situation, and which effectors to employ if required.

The right place at the right time for the right effect

If defending against a potential swarming threat, the role of intelligence plays a major part in deciding where is best to position naval vessels, sensors, and other interdiction assets. Establishing a pattern-of-life around possible launch sites helps to anticipate where and when an attack may come, identify the organisation and links in the pre-launch process, as well as assist with proactive offensive action. Similarly, pattern-of-life analysis can also help with the detection of anomalies by highlighting areas of activity that may normally be quiet. Bolstered by artificial intelligence support tools, analysts can swiftly identify areas of concern for additional monitoring – helping to narrow down potential threat locations, and position assets accordingly.

Acting to defeat

Defeating a swarming threat can be achieved through two methods – hard kill and soft kill. Hard kill requires the employment of effectors, which can be an expensive option, or rely on close proximity to the target – increasing the risk to a vessel.

Soft-kill technologies involve the use of electronic countermeasures to defeat a threat. When confronted with an unmanned/uncrewed threat, this activity could range from jamming a control link, to taking control of a system to cause it to self-destruct. Self-protective “bubbles” of electronic defence can also prevent any system from getting close to a location or vessel, however adequate hard-kill defences need to be in place to ensure that should electronic protection fail, security can be assured through detection and destruction.

In conclusion…

With radars that can detect and track fast-moving objects down to the size of a cricket ball combined with other sensors, the need to analyse, process, and then act on information can lead to high levels of pressure for commanders. Understanding the threat, using intelligence to identify the preliminary stages of a potential attack, and having the most time to react can all help to deal with complex threats such as swarming attacks. Sharing sensor information with other partners and allies also means that enhanced situational awareness can improve detection and response times, allowing for greater security and mission success.