THE RETURN OF RISK

Assessing Recent Volatility, Trade Tensions & The Long Expansion

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2017 was a calm year. Domestic equity markets delivered 20% returns that seemed to come in a nearly straight line. International equity markets gained more. So far, 2018 has been a much different experience (Exhibit 1). While most of January seemed to be a continuation of the 2017 rally, since January 26, the U.S. stock market has twice dipped into correction territory, marked by a 10%-or-more decline. Markets have seemed more focused on various risks to the expansion than the ongoing expansion itself.... READ MORE...