The Return of the Orange Tornado

With Trump now officially back for Round 2, America’s allies, from Tokyo to Brussels, are collectively holding their breath. While the diplomatic establishment frets about his “reckless” approach to China, Trump’s supporters are celebrating what they see as a return to brass-knuckled realism. But here’s the harsh reality: Trump’s unapologetic “America First” agenda might work wonders for the U.S., but don’t expect it to be a lifeline for anyone else.

Trump’s second term is shaping up to be a remix of his first, only with more swagger and fewer guardrails. This isn’t about upholding global stability but maximizing America’s gains, even if it means letting its allies fend for themselves. Japan, Europe, Taiwan? Better gear up for a cold, hard truth: Trump isn’t here to babysit.

The Trade War is Back, Bigger and Badder

Trump is already talking up tariffs like they’re the miracle cure for American industry, promising to slap a hefty 60% on Chinese goods. During his first term, he hit China with 25% tariffs and, in doing so, made life a lot harder for Beijing’s export-driven economy. This time, he’s planning to double down. China’s economy is already teetering due to its real estate crisis and slowing growth. Trump knows he’s got the leverage and is not afraid to use it.

But let’s not pretend this won’t come with collateral damage. Japan, South Korea, and other allies caught in the crossfire of a US-China trade war will face higher costs and disrupted supply chains. Japan’s export-heavy economy could feel the squeeze, especially since it relies on both American and Chinese markets. The cold truth? Trump doesn't care. If tariffs bring jobs back to Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin, that’s a mission accomplished in his book. Tokyo’s headaches are just the price of doing business in Trump’s America.

Is Taiwan a Bargaining Chip or Battleground?

Trump’s stance on Taiwan is a masterclass in brinkmanship. During the campaign, he hinted at tariffs of “150% to 200%” on China if Beijing moves on the island. But unlike Biden’s values-driven approach, Trump’s treating Taiwan more like a pawn in his economic chess game than a democratic ally worth defending. His message is clear: if Taiwan wants U.S. protection, it better start paying up.

Japan, which has relied on America’s unwavering military support, especially when it comes to countering China’s ambitions, is starting to sweat. If Trump is willing to reduce Taiwan’s security to a mere transaction, what does that mean for Japan? Tokyo’s defence strategy has long been anchored on the assumption that America will appear if things go south in the East China Sea. But with Trump 2.0, there’s no guarantee that American support won’t come with a hefty price tag.

Forget Multilateralism, Trump’s All About the Deals

While Biden spent four years trying to revive America’s alliances and multilateral frameworks, Trump has never been interested in kumbaya diplomacy. To him, alliances are just “deals” and only as good as the benefits they bring to the U.S. So while Japan and its allies are praying for a united front against China, Trump’s approach is simple: What’s in it for us?

In Trump’s playbook, it’s bilateral or bust. And if that means the EU, Japan, and Australia have to fend for themselves against China’s growing assertiveness, so be it. This might strengthen America’s bottom line in the short term, but it’s bound to expose its allies. Japan might need to rethink its decades-long strategy of leaning on the U.S. security umbrella. If Trump decides it’s more profitable to cut deals with China behind closed doors, America’s Pacific allies could find themselves alone.

Global South and the New World Order

Meanwhile, as the U.S. turns inward, China is busy cosying to Russia and the Global South through the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The old American-led world order is starting to look shaky, and Japan and Europe may soon be scrambling to adjust. Trump’s America is no longer interested in being the world’s moral compass or peacekeeper. And if allies expect Washington to come to their rescue, they might want to start making contingency plans.

Japan has long depended on American leadership to counterbalance China’s regional ambitions. However, that old partnership could quickly start to look increasingly unreliable with Trump’s focus squarely on the home front. Japan needs to start thinking beyond its traditional alliances, perhaps even beefing up its own military capabilities. If Trump made one thing clear, it would be that America’s days of being everyone’s safety net are over.

The Bottom Line: America Thrives, Allies Dive

Trump 2.0 is all about taking what works for America and letting everyone else fend for themselves. Japan and its allies are now facing a harsh new reality where the old rules no longer apply. Trump’s playbook is simple: maximize gains for the U.S. and minimize obligations elsewhere. If Japan was hoping for stability, it is in for a rude awakening.

So here’s the takeaway: Trump’s America is back and playing for keeps. Allies like Japan had better wake up and realize that the cavalry isn’t coming this time. It’s time to adapt or get left behind. Trump doesn’t just want to win; he wants to make sure America wins alone, and if that means leaving everyone else in the dust, so be it.

I write a monthly magazine called UZU with commentary, interviews, and articles on Japan, branding and marketing, and life in Japan. Subscribe here to download the latest edition for November. ?? https://lnkd.in/gH-drv6B

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