Retrofitting & future-fitting buildings

Old buildings where we live and work need to be future-fitted on a large-scale.

In simple terms, can we retrofit and rebuild old buildings to reduce energy use and greenhouse gases in financially reasonable ways and create jobs? The answer is yes.

In preparation for a CD Howe Institute special policy conference on Canada’s emissions reductions plan, I reviewed the recently published ‘Green Retrofit Economy Study’ published by the Delphi Group and Canada Green Building Council. Full disclosure that I helped to put the partnership of CIB, CMHC, FCM and OCS together which is first of a kind. More importantly, there is good analysis and valuable ideas that could speed-up action.

Two millions direct job years and 730 millions square meters of space could retrofitted if there is an aggressive and accelerated commitment between now and 2050. That’s a big if. But the alternatives to going bigger and faster, like the slow status quo or a moderate incremental approach, might mean that vintage buildings are in greater disrepair, cost more to heat and cool, and have a value discount for climate indifference. And if any of the current return-to-office resistance lingers, then outdated office space would be a competitive disadvantage for both companies and communities that compete for talent.

On the more optimistic side, even a quick review of the 45-page report shows that office, high rise multi-unit residential, and logistics facilities are half of the total available space to retrofit. In Ontario the retrofit inventory opportunity is large in all three asset types, while office retrofits have relatively significant potential in each of British Columbia, Alberta and Quebec. In these regions there is a large percentage of 1960-1980 vintage commercial buildings.

There are for sure nuances and differences, but the overall point is that it seems to make sense to instigate a large-scale future-fitting of 40-60 year-old private-sector owned buildings in the largest provinces (and cities).

To connect the building renewal to the potential jobs for people, there does appear to be a disconnect. It’s especially evident in Ontario (and some other places) that there are potential shortages of skilled trades people with the required qualifications to do retrofits in the coming years. That risk is an opportunity to attract a new generation of green tradespeople.

There are strong linkages between construction capability (we know how to build), climate action (we have to do new things quickly), human capital development (we have a demand for a new generation skilled trades) and sustainable finance investment (we have more financing than ever and delaying retrofits will only cost more over the long-term).