Retracing Biden’s foreign policy missteps as his term winds down

The incumbent in the White House, who promised to globally foster democracy, has notably failed to do so and appears comfortable engaging with autocrats.

Column by: Kalarickal Fabian

When Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election, there was a consensus that given his extensive foreign policy experience he would correct the mistakes of his predecessor, Donald Trump. Unfortunately, Biden has disappointed.

An evaluation of his administration’s foreign policy should consider both successes and failures. Let us begin by listing the failures.

The war in Ukraine

The first question to ask about any war is: Was it necessary? Could it have been avoided through diplomacy?

In this case, even without the benefit of hindsight, it can be argued that Biden provoked Russian President Vladimir Putin into invading Ukraine in February 2022 by resorting to public diplomacy of a toxic variety.

Biden encouraged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a comedian with no prior political experience, to believe that Kyiv could take an uncompromising stand against its big neighbor, Russia. He implied that Ukraine’s induction into NATO was imminent, and just as importantly, the US would assist Ukraine in recovering territories captured by Russia, including Crimea, in 2014.

On 11 November 2021, the two countries had signed a Charter on Strategic Partnership, in which the US pledged its “unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, including Crimea and extending to its territorial waters, in the face of ongoing Russian aggression, which threatens regional peace and stability and undermines the global rules-based order.”

Anyone familiar with history would know that the Imperial Russian Navy, under Catherine the Great, established a warm-water port in Crimea in 1784—the same year the US was recognized as an independent state through the Treaty of Paris, which ended the War of Independence.

In 2014, when Putin annexed Crimea, which had been gifted to Ukraine by the then Soviet premier, Nikita Khrushchev, in 1954, the West tacitly accepted it, imposing only economic sanctions. These sanctions failed to compel Putin to reverse the annexation.

In December 2021, Putin proposed signing a treaty with Washington and NATO headquarters in Brussels to provide security guarantees for Russia. He viewed Ukraine’s potential NATO membership as a clear and present danger to Russian security, akin to President John F. Kennedy’s 1962 demand that Khrushchev remove nuclear missiles from Cuba.

Ignoring traditional diplomacy, Biden publicly stated that Ukraine had the right to join NATO, and NATO had every right to keep an open-door policy.

Did Biden not remember that at the 2008 Bucharest NATO summit, Washington failed to get Ukraine in?

On 19 January 2022, Biden predicted Russia would invade Ukraine and regret it. Biden wanted Russia to invade Ukraine so that, with economic sanctions, its economy would crumble and eventually Putin would be dislodged from power, and the huge Russian Federation—the largest country—might even disintegrate.

As of now, the Russian military is advancing, and serious aid fatigue has set in. Biden has disallowed Zelensky from using long-range weapons supplied by the West to strike deep into Russia, ruining his much-talked-about ‘Victory Plan.’

In short, Biden’s policy has failed in toto. The human cost has been huge. Reconstruction of Ukraine, according to the World Bank, might need $486 billion.

Who will pay when the war ends?

In March-April 2023, Ukraine and Russia tentatively agreed on a ceasefire during talks hosted by Turkey. Biden and then UK premier Boris Johnson scuttled it.

Israel’s war on Gaza, Lebanon and Iran

Biden was right in rushing to Israel’s defense when it was attacked by Hamas militants on 7 October 2023. However, he was wrong to have painted himself into a corner by repeatedly stating that his support for Israel was ‘iron-clad.’ He implied that Israel was not bound to respect International Humanitarian Law, including the four Geneva Conventions.

Biden took time to express concern over the genocidal war when civilian casualties mounted. He delayed demanding Tel Aviv permit access to humanitarian aid to Gaza, the largest open-air prison, where Israel had been carrying out a policy harsher than the White-ruled South Africa’s Apartheid.

It is necessary for a leader, above all the President of the US, to retain credibility. Biden announced a cease-fire plan leading to the release of hostages and working toward a political settlement on Gaza, claiming it was based on proposals from Israel.

The UN Security Council passed a resolution based on Biden’s plan on 10 June 2024. Negotiations between Hamas and Israel took place in vain. Israel prevaricated as Biden repeatedly announced that a deal was imminent. Biden has lost credibility.

Netanyahu threatened to attack Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities. Biden, realizing the grave risks, told Netanyahu to abandon the idea. Netanyahu extracted from Biden the THAAD anti-missile system for Israel, along with about 100 military personnel to operate it.

Biden’s primary concern was that any attack on oil installations would raise the price of gas and spoil the chances of vice-president Kamala Harris. It is not to be ruled out that Netanyahu might strike at Iran’s oil facilities after the 5th November vote.

Biden has correctly claimed that as president he has done more for Israel than any of his predecessors. Yet, Netanyahu is openly working for Trump’s success.

The Quad and the Indo-Pacific

Biden took the initiative to upgrade the Quad, composed of the US, Japan, Australia, and India, originally formed after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The first summit was held in 2021, chaired by Biden.

Has the Quad achieved its goals?

Not really. It has strengthened cooperation among its members in economic matters like supply chains.

In May-June 2024, China threatened the Philippines by sending combat vessels to prevent the latter from approaching Scarborough Shoal, claimed by both.

The Quad was unable even to issue a statement in support of the Philippines, despite China acting in contravention of an international court ruling against it under the context of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), to which China is a party.

Iran and the JCPOA

Then US president Barak Obama took the lead in concluding the nuclear deal with Iran, technically known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in 2015, ensuring that Iran would not develop nuclear weapons.

Iran was carrying out its obligations scrupulously when Trump irresponsibly walked out of the JCPOA and re-imposed sanctions on Iran in 2018.

As a candidate, Biden announced that once elected, he would resume US participation in the JCPOA.

Biden reneged on this promise and followed Trump’s policy of linking the JCPOA to other matters, such as Iran’s regional policies and restrictions on its missile development program.

Iran has since moved closer to the Russia-China axis.

Geopolitical impact

The most important impact has been the strengthening and deepening of the Russia-China axis. By pursuing a policy of confrontation with Russia and China simultaneously, Biden prompted the two to draw even closer.

Iran is part of that axis now, as is North Korea. Both are supplying drones and otherwise supporting Russia in its war with Ukraine.

Biden had promised to foster democracy globally, but he has failed to promote democracy in any meaningful way. He seems comfortable dealing with autocrats.

Judged on a scale of 0 to 10, Biden gets 0. He has not seriously pursued the goals he claimed to have chosen.

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