A Retirement Journal: Waymo breaks from the pack to lead the way

I have been seeing Waymo cars on the streets of my hometown in Palo Alto for almost 10 years. The subsidiary of Alphabet-Google has enjoyed the benefits of a deep pocketed parent to really flush out self-driving technology, albeit with a driver present behind the wheel, for a long, long time. Other companies like Cruise and Nuro also showed up in my neighborhood. The next step for both Waymo and Cruise was true driverless. This phase started with driverless ride sharing (or taxi) in San Francisco. Both companies launched limited “trusted traveler” true driverless rides as early as 2021. Most of these trusted travelers were employees of Cruise and its parent company GM or Waymo and its parent company Alphabet-Google. Neighborhoods did not take too kindly to these vehicles. The kinks were still being worked out. The cars would stop seemingly randomly, block intersections, and get in the way of public safety vehicles like fire trucks. Both companies experienced several incidents creating bad publicity. Irritated residents of neighborhoods where these cars roamed would play pranks. Putting traffic cones on the hood would confuse the software such that the cars just stopped, creating further congestion! A WSJ podcast as late as August of 2023 stated the future of self-driving ride share was here but that it was a cloudy future. Then things got worse for Cruise in October 2023. One of its vehicles dragged a pedestrian who had been struck by a hit and run driver for 20 feet. The company’s permit to operate in SF was suspended. Cruise went back to the drawing boards for a while. This left the market open for Waymo who capitalized.

What a difference a year makes! With field open and many of the kinks having been worked out, Waymo in June 2024 opened its ridesharing in SF to anyone who downloaded their app. The residents and tourists in the city took to it. So much so, Waymo now offers 100,000 rides per week in the city. I wrote recently about my first ride sharing Waymo ride. I quite enjoyed my experience. If I lived in SF, driverless rideshare would be my preferred mode of transport. My daughter Becca Carroll who works in the city will now take a driverless Waymo over an Uber with a driver any day.? A more recent WSJ Journal Podcast (October 2024) states, Waymo has indeed won over San Francisco. Female riders especially prefer the safety of a driverless Waymo to getting into a vehicle with an unknown Uber or Lyft driver.

Neighborhood dissenters notwithstanding, I believe there is no going back on driverless taxis in San Francisco. The convenience, and for many the safety considerations, are well worth the accidents that will inevitably happen, some fatal. Heck, we have 43,000 motor vehicle fatalities per year in the U.S.? No one is thinking of banning cars. Nor will they with driverless taxis. San Francisco is already there, and I predict so will every city where such vehicles operate.

What does the larger future augur for driverless cars?

In the near term, Waymo and others have “room” to grow in a lot of cities as well as on highways. Beyond that, I am speculating, but it is fun to do that and play futurist every so often. The picture above illustrates Waymo breaking away from the pack. As the industry looks forward, I believe we can divide the market into driverless livery or taxis and driverless and driverless capable personal cars. Just like Uber and Lyft disrupted medallion cabs in cities, driverless technologies will disrupt the driver-based Uber and Lyft portion of the gig economy. There still will be some demand for drivers in such vehicles but I believe it will be for the more socially outgoing and/or status seeking passengers. After all, barbers and hairstylists are not going to completely disappear anytime soon even though there are “robo” clippers! Waymo is already cutting deals with Uber for Uber-Driverless. Note that Uber provides 1 million rides per week in San Francisco, to say nothing about its reach world-wide. Waymo is trying to tap into that huge market as it begins to scale. I believe the future ridesharing business model will still be asset light for the Ubers as companies like Waymo will own the vehicles. In addition, many car owners will offer their personal driver-less cars for ride sharing use.

Waymo and its peers will become major OEMs to auto manufacturers. I imagine Waymo will start with Jaguar, its vehicle of choice in San Francisco. ?In turn these auto companies will offer driverless only (no steering wheel) as well as driverless enabled options to their customers. Tesla, with its current leadership position in EV and future fully automated driving a la robotaxi, will be able to play in both segments of the market.

The internal combustion engine automobile which marked the 20th century will become a relic in the 21st century with tomorrow’s EV and Hybrid cars having both driver and driverless options.

How about YOU? Have you ridden in a truly driverless car? Where do YOU think the future is headed?

Jake

PS: The Oak Guild Institute non-profit I help run is offering a salon this Saturday on living with the election results if you happen to be in the Bay Area. https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/oak-guild-institute_election-2024-living-with-the-results-activity-7261956649945374720-X1Ls?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

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