Rethinking the global electricity debate: why reliable power matters for economic growth
By Ronald Stein, Robert Jeffrey and Olivia Vaughan - posted Tuesday, 14 January 2025
Human development and economic prosperity have always hinged on the availability of the many products made from fossil fuels, and electricity. From the discovery of fire to the Industrial Revolution, each leap in energy transformation has reshaped societies, increasing productivity, reducing poverty, and improving living standards. Today, the world faces another critical energy crossroads, with a heated debate on the role of crude oil, renewables, and nuclear power in driving future growth. The primary Energy Literacy Educational points to remember are that crude oil, wind and solar renewables, and nuclear power do different things:
Crude oils are virtually useless in its "raw black tar" format, but once it's put through the refinery processes, human ingenuity has been able to use those manufactured oil derivatives to benefit mankind. The population growth occurred as a result of the more than 6,000 products in today's society that are based on the oil derivatives manufactured from that black raw crude oil, the same products that did not exist before the 1800's. These are products that people need and use every day, without even realizing that they come from the refining process. Without oil, we are back in the stone age.
Renewables like wind and solar generate electricity that is NOT continuous, intermittent, and NOT dispatchable electricity. In addition, renewables CANNOT make any of the more than 6,000 products made from oil.
Nuclear generates continuous, uninterruptable, dispatchable electricity. In addition, like renewables, nuclear CANNOT make any of the more than 6,000 products made from oil. But it CAN provide reliable, clean electricity and heat used to produce these valuable products made from oil.
Electricity came about AFTER the discovery of oil. ALL six methods for the generation of electricity from hydro, coal, natural gas, nuclear, wind, and solar are ALL built with the products, components, and equipment that are made from the oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil. Without oil, there would be no electricity! Everything that needs electricity to function like iPhones, computers, data centers, and X-Ray machines are all made with petrochemicals manufactured from crude oil. Without fossil fuels, there would be nothing that needs electricity!
Lessons from History: The Power of Energy Transformations
The first energy transformation-harnessing fire-gave humans the ability to cook food and survive harsher climates, catalysing brain development and physical strength.
The second major energy transformation
Thousands of years later, after the discovery of oil, one of the last major energy transformations started in Great Britain in the 18th Century. It came to be known as the Industrial Revolution. Fueled by coal, oil, and gas, it shifted economies from agriculture to large-scale mechanised production, creating wealth, reducing poverty, and sparking unprecedented improvements in health, employment, and living standards. This era, with the thousands of products made from oil, saw the rise of electricity, enabling vast advancements in industry and infrastructure. Crucially, fossil fuels provided reliable, affordable, and dispatchable products and electricity-qualities that remain vital today. The Industrial Revolution transformed economies that had primarily been based on agriculture and handicrafts into economies based on large-scale mechanised production processes. It spread throughout Europe and America, and across the world. Many other social and technical innovations helped and coincided with the transformation, including the development of electricity. The impact of increased availability of products and electricity on human productivity was unprecedented. The increase came from the enormous increase in energy available per person. When these processes were successfully implemented, the entire population benefited from substantial increases in the standard of living, resulting in higher employment and poverty reduction.
The third opportunity, Nuclear Power
The world never really made the next giant leap in electricity generation transformation which is to nuclear power. This is another solar driven event but not from the earths sun. It is storage of energy power and heat into nuclear storage, such as uranium and other nuclear materials. Their life can be measured in millions of years and arises from changes and explosions in stars and star structures involving nova, supernova and collisions which form these nuclear materials. Their power and lives are virtually infinite.
Their development in nuclear power stations falls far short of their potential. There is an ongoing debate about maximising this potential globally, with recent articles suggesting that this could drive future global economic growth. According to a recent article co-authored by Ronald Stein, Dr. Robert Jeffrey, and Olivia Vaughan, "Developing countries are leading the movement toward nuclear-generated electricity." The authors highlight how developing countries are spearheading the shift toward nuclear power in a world where reliable, dispatchable, and sustainable electricity sources are crucial.
Wealthier nations focus on weather-dependent wind turbines and solar panels for so-called renewable electricity. The choice of nuclear power generation over unreliable renewables is driven by the need for dependable, low-emission electricity to meet the growing demand for industrial, mining, and agricultural goods.
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Despite its potential, nuclear power remains underutilised, particularly in developing economies. However, countries like China, Japan, Russia, and India are building nuclear power at scale, recognising that nuclear provides the reliable, low-emission power needed to meet growing industrial and societal demands.
The Case Against Renewables
While wealthy nations invest heavily in wind and solar, these sources suffer from inherent weaknesses. Wind power is intermittent and highly variable, while solar energy is only available during the day and is weather-dependent. In South Africa, for example, wind is reliable only 35% of the time, and solar just 26%.
Moreover, renewables require extensive backup systems, often relying on fossil fuels, to ensure grid stability. This unpredictability drives up costs, making renewables significantly more expensive than coal or nuclear.
It seems incredible that there is such a powerful drive to turn the clock back and start using old electricity generation sources such as wind and solar, which are known to be weak and unreliable. There seems to be a belief that modern technology and backup systems will transform these forms of energy into environmentally acceptable, low-cost, reliable, and dispatchable sources of electricity and heat. However, where they have been introduced on a large scale, their high costs have been inflationary and have weakened major economies.
Examples can be found in the United Kingdom, Germany, California, and Australia. All these countries are finding that the transition to renewables has had extremely damaging impacts on their key manufacturing, mining, and industrial sectors.
The Real Costs of Electricity
The costs of renewables are substantially higher than those of coal and nuclear power. "Many international reports prove that such electricity supply is costly due to its variability, interruptibility, inefficiency, and the requirement of 100% backup" in order to distribute dispatchable electricity.
Charting a Pragmatic Energy Future for South Africa
The shift towards nuclear power and a pragmatic approach to energy sources could pave the way for a more stable and prosperous future.
South Africa's electricity policy must prioritise reliable, cost-effective, and scalable solutions. Key considerations include:
By leveraging its coal and nuclear resources, South Africa can ensure electricity security, drive economic development, and position itself as a global leader in advanced technologies.
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