Retail Trade trend estimate increased by 0.4 per cent in December 2024 and by 3.9 per cent year-on-year

The latest release (December 2024) of the monthly ABS Retail Trade data indicates that the overall month-on-month (m-o-m) trend increased by 0.4 per cent, equal to 0.4 per cent in November 2024. In trend terms, Retail Turnover increased by 3.9 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y), up from (a revised) 3.5 per cent in the pcp.

STATE OF PLAY

The following table summarises the key data in seasonally adjusted terms across the six ABS retail categories. The strongest growth was recorded for ‘Household goods’ retailing on a m-o-m basis (up 1.6 per cent) as well as on a y-o-y basis (up 7.1 per cent). In seasonally adjusted terms, Retail Turnover decreased by 0.1 per cent in the month of December 2024, down from (a revised) 0.7 per cent increase in the prior month. On a y-o-y basis, Retail Turnover increased by 4.6 per cent, up from (a revised) 3.1 per cent in the pcp.

TREND ANALYSIS: CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES

The quarterly chain volume measure estimates the change in value after the direct effects of price changes have been eliminated, reflecting changes in volume. In the December 2024 quarter, Chain Volume Measures increased by 1.0 per cent, up from 0.5 per cent decrease in the pcp. Retail Turnover increased by 1.1 per cent in the December 2024 quarter, up from 1.0 per cent in the pcp. Chain Volume Measures continue to track below Retail Turnover, indicating that price inflation is a significant contributor to turnover, although the gap to Retail Turnover is closing.

STATE BY STATE: BEST AND WORST

Retail Turnover varies within the ABS defined six categories and across different jurisdictions. The following map outlines and compares the total and growth of retail trade over the last 12-months (vs. the pcp), and the best and worst retail growth categories.

The strongest performing jurisdictions in seasonally adjusted terms were the NT (up 4.1 per cent to $4.0 billion) followed by Western Australia (up 3.6 per cent to $49.3 billion) and Queensland (up 3.3 per cent to $89.7 billion). New South Wales (up 1.3 per cent to $135.2 billion) was the worst performing jurisdiction in percentage terms. The highest growth across all jurisdictions was recorded for ‘Other’ retailing, whilst the weakest category across most jurisdictions was ‘Clothing, footwear & personal accessory’ and ‘Household goods’ retailing. Queensland and Western Australia were once again the only jurisdictions to record positive growth across all six categories.

Simon Hemphill, Head of Research, SCCA