Retail Trade trend estimate increased by 0.3 per cent in January 2025 and by 4.1 per cent year-on-year

The latest release (January 2025) of the monthly ABS Retail Trade data indicates that the overall month-on-month (m-o-m) trend series increased by 0.3 per cent, equal to (a revised) 0.3 per cent in December 2024. In trend terms, Retail Turnover increased by 4.1 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y), up from (a revised) 3.8 per cent in the pcp.

STATE OF PLAY

The following table summarises the key data in seasonally adjusted terms across the six ABS retail categories. The strongest growth was recorded for ‘Other’ retailing on a m-o-m basis (up 2.4 per cent) as well as on a y-o-y basis (up 7.0 per cent). In seasonally adjusted terms, Retail Turnover increased by 0.3 per cent in the month of January 2025, up from -0.1 per cent in the prior month. On a y-o-y basis, Retail Turnover increased by 3.8 per cent, down from 3.8 per cent in the pcp.

TREND ANALYSIS: ONLINE RETAIL TURNOVER

According to the ‘experimental estimates of online retail turnover’, online retail turnover decreased by 22.7 per cent on a m-o-m basis in January 2025 in ‘original’ terms. By comparison, ‘traditional retail turnover’ (i.e. retail turnover less online) decreased by 21.1 per cent m-o-m. On a y-o-y basis, online retail turnover increased by 12.5 per cent versus traditional retail turnover growth of 3.1 per cent over the same timeframe.

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STATE BY STATE: BEST AND WORST

Retail Turnover varies within the ABS defined six categories and across different jurisdictions. The following map outlines and compares the total and growth of retail trade over the last 12-months (vs. the pcp), and the best and worst retail growth categories.

The strongest performing jurisdictions in seasonally adjusted terms were the Northern Territory (up 4.2 per cent to $4.0 billion) followed by Western Australia (up 3.9 per cent to $49.6 billion) and Queensland (up 3.5 per cent to $90.0 billion). The Australian Capital Territory (up 1.4 per cent to $8.1 billion) was the worst performing jurisdiction in percentage terms. The highest growth across all jurisdictions was recorded for ‘Other’ retailing, whilst the weakest categories across all jurisdictions were those considered as ‘discretionary’ spending. Queensland and Western Australia were once again the only jurisdictions to record positive growth across all six categories.

FORTHCOMING CHANGES TO ABS RETAIL TRADE

A media statement on Thursday 23 November 2023 announced that the ABS would be ceasing the publication of Retail Trade, Australia in July 2025. For more information, please visit the Future cessation of the Retail Business Survey and Retail Trade Publication webpage.

Simon Hemphill, Head of Research, SCCA