Retail Trade trend estimate increased by 0.0 per cent in April 2024 and by 1.2 per cent year-on-year

The latest release (April 2024) of the monthly ABS Retail Trade data indicates that the overall month-on-month (m-o-m) trend increased by 0.0 per cent, up from -0.0 per cent in March 2024. In trend terms, Retail Turnover increased by 1.2 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y), up from 1.1 per cent in the pcp.

STATE OF PLAY

The following table summarises the key data in seasonally adjusted terms across the six ABS retail categories. The strongest growth was recorded for ‘Other’ retailing on a m-o-m basis (up 1.6 per cent)?and on a y-o-y basis (up 4.7 per cent). In seasonally adjusted terms, Retail Turnover increased by 0.1 per cent in the month of April 2024, up from -0.4 per cent in the prior month. On a y-o-y basis, Retail Turnover increased by 1.3 per cent, up from (a revised) 0.9 per cent in the pcp.

TREND ANALYSIS: ONLINE RETAIL TURNOVER

According to the ‘experimental estimates of online retail turnover’, online retail turnover increased by 1.2 per cent on a m-o-m basis in April 2024 in ‘seasonally adjusted’ terms. By comparison, ‘traditional retail turnover’ (i.e. retail turnover less online) decreased by 3.7 per cent m-o-m. On a y-o-y basis, online retail turnover increased by 11.5 per cent versus traditional retail turnover growth of 0.1 per cent over the same timeframe.

STATE BY STATE: BEST AND WORST

Retail Turnover varies within the ABS defined six categories and across different jurisdictions. The following map outlines and compares the total and growth of retail trade over the last 12-months (vs. the pcp), and the best and worst retail growth categories.

The strongest jurisdictions in seasonally adjusted terms were the ACT (up 3.7 per cent to $8.1 billion) followed by the Northern Territory (up 3.5 per cent to $3.9 billion) and Western Australia (up 3.2 per cent to $47.9 billion). New South Wales (up 0.9 per cent to $133.5 billion) was the worst performing jurisdiction in percentage terms. The highest growth across most jurisdictions was recorded for ‘Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food’ retailing, whilst the weakest category across all jurisdictions was ‘Household goods’ retailing. South Australia was the only jurisdiction to record positive growth across all six categories.

Simon Hemphill, Head of Research, SCCA