Retail Trade estimate* increased by 0.7 per cent in May 2023 and by 4.2 per cent year-on-year

The latest release (May 2023) of the monthly ABS Retail Trade data indicates that the overall month-on-month (m-o-m) estimate* increased by 0.7 per cent, up from (a revised) 0.0 per cent in April 2023. Retail Turnover increased by 4.2 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y), equal to 4.2 per cent in the prior corresponding period (pcp).

* The ABS has temporarily suspended the publication trend data due to volatility.

STATE OF PLAY

The following table summarises the key data in seasonally adjusted terms across the six ABS retail categories. The strongest growth was recorded for ‘Other’ retailing on a m-o-m basis (up 2.2 per cent), whilst ‘Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services’ retailing recorded the strongest growth on a y-o-y basis (12.7 per cent). In seasonally adjusted terms, Retail Turnover increased by 0.7 per cent in the month of May 2023. On a y-o-y basis, Retail Turnover increased by 4.2 per cent.

TREND ANALYSIS: CONSUMER SENTIMENT

According to the latest figures from the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Confidence report, consumer sentiment was recorded at 79.2 for June 2023, a slight increase from the previous month (up 0.2 percentage points from 79.0). Westpac commented that “When asked about the news items that resonated the most in June, the topics with the highest recall amongst consumers more generally were: inflation (62%), budget and taxation (43%); economic conditions (40%); employment (32%); and interest rates (27.6%).”

STATE BY STATE: BEST AND WORST

Retail Turnover varies within the ABS defined six categories and across different jurisdictions. The following map outlines and compares the total and growth of retail trade over the last 12-months (vs. the pcp), and the best and worst retail growth categories.

The strongest jurisdictions in seasonally adjusted terms were the ACT (up 13.1 per cent to $7.8 billion) followed by New South Wales (up 11.9 per cent to $132.7 billion) and Victoria (up 10.7 per cent to $108.2 billion). The NT (up 4.2 per cent to $3.8 billion) was the worst performing jurisdiction in percentage terms. The highest growth across most jurisdictions was recorded for ‘discretionary’ categories, most notably ‘Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food’ retailing and ‘Clothing, footwear & personal accessory’ retailing.?

Simon Hemphill, Head of Research, SCCA