Retail Trade estimate* decreased by 0.8 per cent in June 2023 and increased by 2.3 per cent year-on-year

The latest release (June 2023) of the monthly ABS Retail Trade data indicates that the overall month-on-month (m-o-m) estimate* decreased by 0.8 per cent, down from (a revised) increase of 0.8 per cent in May 2023. Retail Turnover increased by 2.3 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y), down from (a revised) 4.1 per cent in the prior corresponding period (pcp).

* The ABS has reinstated trend data and y-o-y comparison will be available from the next release.

STATE OF PLAY

The following table summarises the key data in seasonally adjusted terms across the six ABS retail categories. The strongest growth was recorded for ‘Food’ retailing on a m-o-m basis (up 0.1 per cent), whilst ‘Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services’ retailing recorded the strongest growth on a y-o-y basis (8.7 per cent). In seasonally adjusted terms, Retail Turnover decreased by 0.8 per cent in the month of June 2023. On a y-o-y basis, Retail Turnover increased by 2.3 per cent.

TREND ANALYSIS: CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES

The quarterly chain volume measure estimates the change in value after the direct effects of price changes have been eliminated, reflecting changes in volume. In the quarter to June 2023, Chain Volume Measures decreased by 0.5 per cent, up from (a revised) 0.8 per cent decrease in the pcp. Retail Turnover decreased by 0.1 per cent in the June 2023 quarter, down from a (revised) increase of 2.3 per cent in the pcp. Retail Turnover is back above Chain Volume Measures, indicating that pricing (inflation) is a significant contributor to volumes.

STATE BY STATE: BEST AND WORST

Retail Turnover varies within the ABS defined six categories and across different jurisdictions. The following map outlines and compares the total and growth of retail trade over the last 12-months (vs. the pcp), and the best and worst retail growth categories.

The strongest jurisdictions in seasonally adjusted terms were the ACT (up 13.2 per cent to $7.9 billion) followed by New South Wales (up 11.0 per cent to $132.9 billion) and Victoria (up 9.5 per cent to $108.4 billion). The NT (up 4.2 per cent to $3.8 billion) was the worst performing jurisdiction in percentage terms. The highest growth across most jurisdictions was recorded for ‘discretionary’ categories, most notably ‘Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food’ retailing and ‘Clothing, footwear & personal accessory’ retailing.?

Simon Hemphill, Head of Research, SCCA