Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - Canada - August 2024

Source - Stats Canada

Canadian retail sales increased 0.4% in August, a tick softer than the flash estimate. The sectoral picture was split, with four of nine posting gains, led by a 3.5% jump in autos. On the flip side, lower prices weighed on gas stations (-2.7%). That put sales ex-autos down 0.7%, while spending ex-autos and gas was 0.4% lower.

Regionally, seven of ten provinces saw higher sales, led by the Atlantic region (PEI and New Brunswick +2.5% each; Newfoundland & Labrador +1.3%). The only provinces with weaker spending were Alberta (-1.1%), B.C. (-1.0%) and Saskatchewan (-0.8%).

In volume terms, sales were up 0.7%, implying upside risk for the flat flash estimate for August GDP when that report is released next week.

StatCan’s early estimate for September pointed to a 0.4% increase, which could result in a similar gain in volume terms as goods prices were little changed. Separately, a preliminary estimate indicated a 0.8% contraction in manufacturing sales for the same month. We’ll get the wholesale flash next week ahead of the early GDP figure.

Bottom Line: The details of the August retail sales report were softer than the headline increase, especially after accounting for the support from autos. Still, a sturdy rise in volumes and a positive early read on September suggest some underlying stability. Even so, consumer spending continues to lag well behind population growth; with the latter looking to cool to around zero in the coming years, we’ll see if spending can recover from the combination of low inflation and falling interest rates.

Source: 满地可银行

1. Retail sales - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/statistics-canada-reports-august-retail-130115658.html
2. Data and AI - https://financialpost.com/technology/ai-can-make-customers-happier-corporate-changes
3. ESG - https://environmentenergyleader.com/stories/five-years-later-the-evolving-crisis-of-food-waste-in-canada,55297
4. Investments - https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/canadian-cre-investment-trends/
5. Challenges - https://retail-insider.com/retail-insider/2024/10/inflation-technology-and-crime-key-issues-for-small-retailers-in-canada/
6. Business outlook - https://oshawachamber.com/oshawa-chamber-news/data-lab-outlook-q3-2024/
7. Supply chain challenges - https://www.relocalize.com/blog/future-grocery-stores
8. Imports regulations - https://www.retailcouncil.org/government-seeks-input-on-changes-to-forced-labour-import/
9. Consumer outlook - https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/canada-consumer-monitor-4q24-22-10-2024
10. Online - https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/bmo-survey-canadians-plan-to-spend-less-this-holiday-season-836048347.html or https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/canadian-organizations-outspending-global-peers-on-technology-kpmg-survey-shows-843238774.html

Paul is a former IBM Customer Success Manager who has deployed over 300 data and AI solutions across industries and geographies for the past 8 years. Paul is a Financial Planning, Analysis, and Reporting SME working with data including integration of macro and micro indicators as part of the integrated business planning and reporting cycle.

[email protected]

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